MickyG Posted October 21, 2021 Share Posted October 21, 2021 (edited) Wow, cant believe it has been over 7 years since I have last posted on this site, it is good to catch up on what everyone has been doing over the last few years. Anyway I have been dabbling here and there and not really getting anywhere, so over the last few months I have been taking all the racing data I can and loading it into a database on my computer trying to come up with a suitable system. What I found was, that it is too easy to create a system based on back testing to give absolutely superb results then it bombs when paper trading it live on future events. So what I did was to keep on loading each previous days result into my database, and using the daily card downloaded in the morning and making the selections and then checking the results the next day and digesting what happened and comparing against the back data. What I also found was trying to select the horses manually there was too much emotion involved, especially when looking at the comments on the RP website, causing me to change selections last minute (at great cost as I always pick the winner ? most of the time). So I created a set of rules and let the computer select them for me based on the criteria., which I then use to lay the bets. The lay bets I place into the market at the price I want early morning and then set to KEEP, so it either gets matched pre-off or in play - or does not get matched at all. I just sit back and pull out the profit/loss spreadsheet from Betfair the next day and update my results good or bad. There are a few bets that don't get matched - either due to runners being pulled or just not getting near the odds at all. The computer pulls a list of 40 runner's, some of which may be non-runners at the time of the bet, so I remove those when placing the lays. n reality I am looking for a strike rate of 87% upwards. Initial testing was a bit of a rollercoaster in terms of profit loss, but the bank did show a good increase. So now to try with real money and have fun whilst doing it. Start bank £24.49 I will be using a ratchet system for the lays based on certain odds ranges (I based them of a £29 bank to start rather than £24 as I screwed up the spreadsheet formula, so will go with those for now). 1–3.5 1% bank £0.29 3.6–5.5 0.8% bank £0.23 5.6–8.0 0.6% bank £0.17 8.1–11 0.4% bank £0.12 Edit: I forgot to mention, BF commission rate is currently 2% (Basic package). Target for the thread would be double the bank or £100 depending on how it goes. Edited October 21, 2021 by MickyG Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 Day 1 Lay bets Market Selection Bid type Bet placed Persistence Odds req. Stake (£) Avg. odds matched Profit/Loss (£) Horse Racing / 20:30 Wolverhampton / 1m1f Hcap Bakersboy Lay 21/10/2021 10:02 K 6.4 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 20:30 Wolverhampton / 1m1f Hcap Ritchie Valens Lay 21/10/2021 10:02 K 5.3 0.23 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 20:00 Wolverhampton / 5f Nursery Chanteiro Lay 21/10/2021 10:01 K 10 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 20:00 Wolverhampton / 5f Nursery Global Romance Lay 21/10/2021 10:01 K 5.3 0.23 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 20:00 Wolverhampton / 5f Nursery Sapphires Moon Lay 21/10/2021 10:01 K 8.2 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 19:00 Wolverhampton / 1m Nov Stks Ask Peter Lay 21/10/2021 10:00 K 8.6 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 19:00 Wolverhampton / 1m Nov Stks Muzaffar Lay 21/10/2021 10:00 K 7.4 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 18:30 Wolverhampton / 1m Nursery Iconic Look Lay 21/10/2021 09:57 K 6.8 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:30 Wolverhampton / 7f Hcap Duty Beyond Lay 21/10/2021 09:57 K 3.4 0.29 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:30 Wolverhampton / 7f Hcap Matamua Lay 21/10/2021 09:56 K 9.8 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:30 Wolverhampton / 7f Hcap Onaraggatip Lay 21/10/2021 09:56 K 9.8 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:00 Wolverhampton / 6f Nursery Poet Lay 21/10/2021 09:56 K 7.2 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:00 Wolverhampton / 6f Nursery Trail Hawk Lay 21/10/2021 09:55 K 5.2 0.23 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:40 Thurles / 2m INHF Recognize Lay 21/10/2021 09:54 K 5.8 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:40 Thurles / 2m INHF Chernikova Lay 21/10/2021 09:54 K 2.88 0.29 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:05 Thurles / 2m7f Mares Hcap Hrd Something Sweet Lay 21/10/2021 09:53 K 6.2 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:05 Thurles / 2m7f Mares Hcap Hrd Influential Lady Lay 21/10/2021 09:52 K 8.4 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:55 Thurles / 2m Hcap Hrd Frisco Queen Lay 21/10/2021 09:51 K 7.4 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:20 Thurles / 2m Mares Mdn Hrd Siobhans Pride Lay 21/10/2021 09:50 K 10 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:45 Thurles / 2m2f Hcap Chs Mezyan Lay 21/10/2021 09:50 K 10 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:30 Newton Abbot / 3m2f Hcap Chs Isla Di Milano Lay 21/10/2021 09:49 K 9 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:30 Newton Abbot / 3m2f Hcap Chs Dorado Dollar Lay 21/10/2021 09:49 K 4.9 0.23 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:23 Newton Abbot / 2m5f Hcap Chs Itacare Lay 21/10/2021 09:47 K 5.5 0.23 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:13 Newton Abbot / 2m5f Hcap Hrd Investment Manager Lay 21/10/2021 09:46 K 7.4 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:50 Ludlow / 3m Nov Hcap Hrd Tip Top Cat Lay 21/10/2021 09:45 K 3.4 0.29 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:00 Ludlow / 2m Nov Hrd Key To The Moon Lay 21/10/2021 09:44 K 9 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:20 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd Fernhill Dane Lay 21/10/2021 09:43 K 9.2 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:20 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd Very Patient Lay 21/10/2021 09:42 K 8.4 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:50 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd Elusive Red Lay 21/10/2021 09:42 K 8.8 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:50 Carlisle / 2m4f Hcap Hrd Contrebasse Lay 21/10/2021 09:41 K 7.4 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:55 Carlisle / 2m4f Nov Hrd Largy Fix Lay 21/10/2021 09:40 K 9.8 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:55 Carlisle / 2m4f Nov Hrd Everyday Champagne Lay 21/10/2021 09:39 K 9.8 0.12 Unmatched Not Settled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 21, 2021 Author Share Posted October 21, 2021 (edited) Results in tonight, -£1.09 1 21/10/2021 Total Bets 14 Total Won 10 Bets 14 Total Lost 4 Bets Won 10 Bets Lost 4 Overall SR 71.43% Todays SR 71.43% £ Won £0.00 £ Lost -£1.09 Tomorrows Bank £23.38 There were 11 horses where I did not get the lay matched, so I guess this is the last part of the puzzle which paper trading could not help with. As with paper trading I just used Industry SP listed on the daily card, whereas using really money I want some ticks below it to try get value. So now I need to download the BF info tomorrow and look at the MIN/MAX in play odds to try hone the opening lay bet. As with those missing bets, the bank would of been in profit. Edited October 21, 2021 by MickyG Crazy formatting from excel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 OK looking at the pre-off and in-play odds, 6 horses would of definitely been unmatched as the price got nowhere near industry SP. Even if I managed to get the other 5 matched I still would of been down a small amount on the day. HORSE ODDS_REQ INDUSTRY_SP BSP PPMIN IPMIN Itacare 5.5 7 16.07 7.4 19 Ask Peter 7.8 9 27.63 19.5 34 *** Mezyan 10 11 16.71 16 21 *** Frisco Queen 7.4 8 16.56 15 16.5 *** Something Sweet 6.2 13 10.32 8.93 10 Matamua 9.8 13 29 11 25 Onaraggatip 9.8 8 18 11.5 17 *** Duty Beyond 3.4 7 4.81 3.95 4.4 Muzaffar 6.8 8 24.20 10.12 10 *** Everyday Champagne 9.8 13 31.53 13.5 22 *** Elusive Red 7.2 9 9.6 8.2 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 22, 2021 Author Share Posted October 22, 2021 Day 2 Lay Bets Current unmatched: Market Selection Bid type Bet placed Persistence Odds req. Stake (£) Avg. odds matched Horse Racing / 16:05 Sligo / 3m1f Mdn Hrd Highland Sting Lay 22/10/2021 10:57 K 10 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 15:30 Sligo / 2m4f Hcap Hrd A Different World Lay 22/10/2021 10:56 K 10 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 14:55 Sligo / 2m4f Hcap Hrd Monoxide Lay 22/10/2021 10:56 K 11 0.17 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 14:55 Sligo / 2m4f Hcap Hrd Crackaway Lay 22/10/2021 10:56 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 13:45 Sligo / 2m1f Hcap Hrd Eddies Pride Lay 22/10/2021 10:55 K 10.5 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 13:45 Sligo / 2m1f Hcap Hrd Breezy Bell Lay 22/10/2021 10:55 K 7.4 0.17 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 20:30 Newcastle / 7f Hcap Macmerry Jim Lay 22/10/2021 10:54 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 20:30 Newcastle / 7f Hcap Moonbootz Lay 22/10/2021 10:53 K 10.5 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 19:00 Newcastle / 5f Nursery Al Tilal Lay 22/10/2021 10:53 K 11 0.17 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 19:00 Newcastle / 5f Nursery Benzema Lay 22/10/2021 10:53 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 19:00 Newcastle / 5f Nursery Hatshepsut Lay 22/10/2021 10:53 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 18:30 Newcastle / 7f Nov Stks Biyariq Lay 22/10/2021 10:52 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 17:30 Newcastle / 2m Hcap Victoriano Lay 22/10/2021 10:52 K 10.5 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 17:35 Newbury / 2m Hcap Beggarman Lay 22/10/2021 10:51 K 9.6 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 14:48 Newbury / 1m Nov Stks Balgowan Lay 22/10/2021 10:50 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 20:15 Dundalk / 1m2f Mdn Hobsons Bay Lay 22/10/2021 10:47 K 3.45 0.29 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 18:45 Dundalk / 5f Nursery War Effort Lay 22/10/2021 10:46 K 7.8 0.17 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 18:45 Dundalk / 5f Nursery Rockbury Lad Lay 22/10/2021 10:46 K 9.6 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 18:45 Dundalk / 5f Nursery Chriss Rose Lay 22/10/2021 10:46 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 18:15 Dundalk / 6f Hcap Ceapach Rua Lay 22/10/2021 10:45 K 10 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 18:15 Dundalk / 6f Hcap Manhattan Dandy Lay 22/10/2021 10:45 K 10 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 18:15 Dundalk / 6f Hcap Beleaguerment Lay 22/10/2021 10:45 K 10 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 17:45 Dundalk / 6f Hcap Blueberry Tree Lay 22/10/2021 10:44 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 17:45 Dundalk / 6f Hcap Faraah Lay 22/10/2021 10:44 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 16:45 Dundalk / 7f Claim Stks Roaring Water Lay 22/10/2021 10:42 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 16:45 Dundalk / 7f Claim Stks Hightown Heights Lay 22/10/2021 10:41 K 11 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 13:30 Doncaster / 1m Mdn Stks Heart Of Summer Lay 22/10/2021 10:40 K 8.6 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 13:30 Doncaster / 1m Mdn Stks Big News Lay 22/10/2021 10:40 K 7.8 0.17 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 13:30 Doncaster / 1m Mdn Stks Glory And Gold Lay 22/10/2021 10:39 K 9.4 0.12 Unmatched * Horse Racing / 16:50 Cheltenham / 3m1f Hcap Chs Marquis of Carabas Lay 22/10/2021 10:37 K 5.8 0.17 Unmatched * Current Matched: Market Selection Bid type Bet placed Persistence Odds req. Stake (£) Liability (£) Avg. odds matched Horse Racing / 15:23 Newbury / 1m2f Hcap La Hulotte Lay 22/10/2021 10:50 K 11 0.12 11 * Horse Racing / 16:35 Sligo / 2m2f INHF Minella Crooner Lay 22/10/2021 10:57 C 1.73 0.29 1.73 * Horse Racing / 16:55 Doncaster / 1m2f Hcap Aone Ally Lay 22/10/2021 10:41 K 5.4 0.17 5.4 * Horse Racing / 17:15 Dundalk / 7f Hcap Brosna Empress Lay 22/10/2021 10:43 K 8.6 0.12 8.6 * Horse Racing / 17:45 Dundalk / 6f Hcap Brokers Tip Lay 22/10/2021 10:44 K 9.2 0.12 9.2 * Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 23, 2021 Author Share Posted October 23, 2021 Another bad day: 2 22/10/2021 Total Bets: 32 Total Won: 10 Total Lost: 4 Overall SR 75.00% Bets: 18 Bets Won: 14 Bets Lost: 4 Todays SR: 77.78% £ Won £0.00 £ Lost -£2.93 Tomorrows Bank £20.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 27, 2021 Author Share Posted October 27, 2021 Day 3 Lay Bets: Market Selection Bid type Bet placed Persistence Odds req. Stake (£) Liability (£) Avg. odds matched Profit/Loss (£) Horse Racing / 18:45 Kempton / 1m Hcap Florence Street Lay 27/10/2021 10:28 K 10 0.08 10 Not Settled Horse Racing / 18:30 Dundalk / 1m4f Hcap Magic Word Lay 27/10/2021 10:25 K 7.6 0.12 7.6 Not Settled Horse Racing / 19:45 Kempton / 1m4f Hcap A Legacy Lay 27/10/2021 10:29 C 6.6 0.12 6.6 Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:15 Kempton / 6f Nursery Level Up Lay 27/10/2021 10:28 C 9.8 0.08 9.8 Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:50 Fakenham / 3m Nov Hcap Chs Macfin Lay 27/10/2021 10:27 C 5.2 0.16 5.2 Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:30 Fakenham / 2m5f Mares Nov Hcap Chs Precious Eleanor Lay 27/10/2021 10:26 C 7 0.12 7 Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:00 Dundalk / 7f Mdn Trent Lay 27/10/2021 10:23 K 3.4 0.2 3.4 Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:00 Dundalk / 1m Hcap Just Let Go Lay 27/10/2021 10:23 C 5.3 0.12 5.2 Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:15 Taunton / 2m Mares NHF Hey Frankie Lay 27/10/2021 10:32 K 8.6 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:40 Taunton / 2m Hcap Hrd Right Destination Lay 27/10/2021 10:32 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:55 Nottingham / 1m2f Hcap Mrs Meader Lay 27/10/2021 10:31 K 9 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:25 Nottingham / 1m6f Nov Stks Cuban Sands Lay 27/10/2021 10:31 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:23 Nottingham / 5f Hcap Stroxx Lay 27/10/2021 10:30 K 9.8 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:50 Nottingham / 5f Hcap Mehmo Lay 27/10/2021 10:30 K 10 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:15 Nottingham / 5f Hcap Zargun Lay 27/10/2021 10:30 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:40 Nottingham / 1m Hcap Al Erayg Lay 27/10/2021 10:29 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:05 Nottingham / 1m Mdn Stks King Eagle Lay 27/10/2021 10:29 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 18:15 Kempton / 7f Nov Stks Bibulous Lay 27/10/2021 10:28 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:15 Fakenham / 2m Hcap Hrd Grouseman Lay 27/10/2021 10:26 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:05 Fakenham / 2m Hrd Tiki Fire Lay 27/10/2021 10:26 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 19:00 Dundalk / 1m4f Hcap Born Leader Lay 27/10/2021 10:25 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 18:00 Dundalk / 7f Hcap Ranger Bob Lay 27/10/2021 10:24 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:30 Dundalk / 7f Hcap Wrapitup Lay 27/10/2021 10:24 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:30 Dundalk / 1m Claim Stks Dusty Winds Lay 27/10/2021 10:22 K 11 0.08 Unmatched Not Settled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 3 27/10/2021 Bets: 18 Bets Won: 17 Bets Lost: 1 Todays SR: 94.44% £ Won £1.00 £ Lost £0.00 Tomorrows Bank £21.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickyG Posted October 28, 2021 Author Share Posted October 28, 2021 Day 4 Lay Bets -- Matched Market Selection Bid type Bet placed Persistence Odds req. Stake (£) Liability (£) Avg. odds matched Profit/Loss (£) Horse Racing / 13:55 Ffos Las / 2m Nov Hcap Chs Jobesgreen Lad Lay 28/10/2021 10:25 K 8.4 0.09 8.4 Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:38 Lingfield / 7f Nov Stks Golden Mayflower Lay 28/10/2021 10:28 C 7.2 0.13 7.2 Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:30 Clonmel / 3m Hcap Hrd Dedanann Lay 28/10/2021 10:24 K 7 0.13 7 Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:20 Clonmel / 2m Mdn Hrd Guily Billy Lay 28/10/2021 10:23 C 1.5 0.21 1.5 Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:45 Clonmel / 2m3f Hcap Hrd Harveys Quay Lay 28/10/2021 10:22 C 9.2 0.09 8.8 Not Settled -- Unmatched Market Selection Bid type Bet placed Persistence Odds req. Stake (£) Liability (£) Avg. odds matched Profit/Loss (£) Horse Racing / 16:25 Stratford / 2m2f Hcap Hrd Lexis Choice Lay 28/10/2021 10:32 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 12:25 Stratford / 2m6f Mdn Hrd Sharp Shadow Lay 28/10/2021 10:30 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:15 Stratford / 2m6f Hcap Chs Fort Denison Lay 28/10/2021 10:30 K 4.4 0.17 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:30 Stratford / 2m2f Sell Hrd Gaia Vallis Lay 28/10/2021 10:29 K 9.4 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:33 Lingfield / 7f Hcap Hot Day Lay 28/10/2021 10:29 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:58 Lingfield / 7f Nov Stks Kodiac Sign Lay 28/10/2021 10:28 K 7 0.13 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:03 Lingfield / 1m2f Hcap Avarice Lay 28/10/2021 10:27 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 17:20 Ffos Las / 2m Mdn NHF Awaythelad Lay 28/10/2021 10:27 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:15 Ffos Las / 3m Nov Hcap Chs Lilith Lay 28/10/2021 10:26 K 3.45 0.21 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:40 Ffos Las / 2m4f Hcap Hrd Honorary Colonel Lay 28/10/2021 10:26 K 10.5 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 15:05 Ffos Las / 2m4f Mdn Hrd Gris Gris Top Lay 28/10/2021 10:26 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:30 Ffos Las / 2m4f Mdn Hrd Monbeg Genius Lay 28/10/2021 10:25 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:20 Ffos Las / 2m Hrd Cornicello Lay 28/10/2021 10:25 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 16:40 Clonmel / 2m Hcap Chs Trans Wood Lay 28/10/2021 10:24 K 9.6 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 14:55 Clonmel / 2m Hcap Hrd Truckers Angel Lay 28/10/2021 10:23 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 13:10 Clonmel / 2m3f Mdn Hrd Kilbarry Chianti Lay 28/10/2021 10:21 K 9.6 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 20:00 Chelmsford City / 1m Hcap Adace Lay 28/10/2021 10:20 K 11 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 19:00 Chelmsford City / 7f Claim Stks Olivia Mary Lay 28/10/2021 10:20 K 8.4 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Horse Racing / 18:30 Chelmsford City / 5f Hcap Top Boy Lay 28/10/2021 10:19 K 10 0.09 Unmatched Not Settled Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.