Hunter Chase - 6.10 Worcester

[Darran]

As well as the market getting the Warwick race wrong so did I. Killaro Boy never really looked like he was going to win although having said that the winner also didn't really look a likely winner until fairly late on either. I didn't think the Cheltenham form was up too much, but clearly I have to upgrade the front two from that contest on the back of this. I have to say though that the jockey switch has proved crucial as I don't think Sugar Baron's usual jockey would have won on him as he had a Gina special to thank for the success. Apparently he has the Aintree Foxhunter as a target, but I can't see him having anywhere near enough pace for that. Captain Cattistock ran well again to finish 2nd and Southfield Royale wasn't helped by that one coming across him on the home bend and would have finished closer apart from that. Optimised has clearly gone backwards and Dieu Vivant ran a total stinker.

We may only have 5 runners and as the market suggests only 3 can win, but it is still a fascinating contest. Jatiluwih was supposed to be Maxwell's Cheltenham horse this year, but that plan didn't work out and to be fair Bob And Co is the better horse anyway. He was an easy winner of his first point at Bishops Court, but I was not impressed with his jumping which is surprising given he has run over fences in France. He then went to Barbury and ran a stinker in the race Marcle Ridge won. To be fair to him that performance was clearly too bad to be true and he must be better than that. It will be interesting to see what he can do here against two good rivals.

The weather could play a big part in this contest, because there is plenty of rain due and I would imagine we will be looking at soft ground although I was surprised to still see it as good ground this morning. That probably isn't ideal for Marcle Ridge whose best form has come on better ground. There is no doubt in my mind that he put in the best performance on hunter chase night at Cheltenham last time and that was backed up on the clock as well. He proved that night that he doesn't have to make the running and the fact this is 2m7f rather than 3m will be in his favour as well. Tactics will be interesting because both he and Wishing And Hoping like to be prominent although I can't imagine they will go a crazy pace and I just wonder if that will play into Marcle Ridge's hands. I actually think his two runs on soft ground haven't actually been that bad. They went a crazy pace at Warwick when he ran on it earlier in the season and it was no surprise he wasn't able to see it out. I also wonder if he wasn't quite right given we didn't see him again until Cheltenham.

Wishing And Hoping does have form on soft ground although strangely connections took him out of a race at Catterick earlier in the season due to heavy ground. He did run a few days later at Haydock, but not surprisingly found Bob And Co too hot. That was probably his best run of the season as his win at Maisemore was workmanlike and he was then beaten by Premier Magic although that horse has done well since. He was a bit disappointing for me at Cheltenham though as I would have liked to have seen a bit more from him. He probably stays better than the other two so it would be interesting if Zac decided to make it a proper test, but I am not sure he will do that.

In my view Marcle Ridge has produced the best form so far this season and as long as it doesn't get really testing I think he will be OK on it as I can't see it being a strong test of stamina. If it did get too soft then I think they would pull him out anyway. I've not really been convinced with Maxwell's riding all season which is a concern for the favourite and I would have like to see him jump better on his pointing debut as well. His form over hurdles and in France though was over shorter than this as well so I think he's worth taking on. So I am siding with Marcle Ridge.

Marcle Ridge 1pt @ 2/1 with everyone

 

The current stats for the season are 133.5pts staked and 154.49pts returned so basically a 21pt profit going into the final 13 races of the season, 7 of which will be at Stratford a week today.