Hunter Chase 4.00 Warwick

[Darran]

I know it is easy to say after Green Winter won that I should have put him up in the outright market as well, but given I was keen on him finishing 3rd I should really have had a small bet on him e/w in the outright market as well just in case he won. He didn't always jump well, but he kept finding for Zac and we know he stays really well so it was no surprise he kept going despite the fact they seemed to be going a good pace in front. Dolphin Square loomed large turning for home, but his jumping wasn't great either and a poor jump at 2 out basically sealed his fate. Some people were saying Maxwell should have kick for home sooner, but I'm not sure we would have seen a different result because like I say the winner kept finding. They pulled miles clear of the rest who were actually headed by Right Of Reply as Tullys Touch paid for trying to keep up with the front two. I think we know his level after this. It was good to see Green Winter anyway because he has run so many good races in points that he deserved to land a hunter chase and at 13 he is clearly still as good as he ever was.

We move onto Warwick this afternoon and Cheltenham winner Captain Cattistock was heading the market last night, but is now on the drift. He hasn't always been easy to win with and he was idling on the run in at Cheltenham, but he never looked like being caught. Having said that you had a massive price outsider finishing 2nd and with the favourite falling and Ennistown blowing his chance at the first I do wonder what the form quite amounts to. My guess is they will be handy with him again and use his stamina. He might well win, but he is priced up tight enough for me with those doubts about the worth of the Cheltenham form.

Sugar Baron is also coming from Cheltenham and he finished 2nd behind Monbeg Chit Chat. That for me wasn't a strong race and although the winner won a point on Saturday it wasn't an especially strong one and he was 1/4. He does have Gina on today and she won on him the only other time she rode him and they front two did pull well clear of the rest at Cheltenham, but ultimately I think the race fell to pieces.

Dieu Vivant is another horse who is very hard to win with and he got lucky in his hunter chase win last year. The handicap 2nd in February would be good enough to see him go fairly close in this, but his two hunter chase runs after that weren't good enough and I think he will need others to disappoint to win this.

Southfield Royale was firmly on the downgrade when he was last seen under rules in 2019 and he was missing for 2 years until winning a point at Mollington earlier in the month. I guess you have to give him credit for winning 1st up after such a long layoff, but this race is much tougher and I find it hard to fancy him.

Optimised was hugely disappointing when beaten 34L in the hunter chase Dieu Vivant won at Ludlow last year and he also has ground to make up on Captain Cattistock after finishing 6th behind him at Cheltenham. Given he had been 2nd in that race you can't say it was a lack of stamina that got him beat and I think basically he isn't as good as he was in 2019 when he landed a hunter chase at Bangor. If he can re-find that form than I can see why some might what to take a chance at a double figure price.

The two outsiders have little chance and so that brings me to the selection Killaro Boy. He was a very impressive winner of this when it was last staged in 2019 and I think he can hold onto his title. He has been beaten 22L in both his starts this year, his first since December 2019, but stumbled badly leaving the back straight at Leicester in the race won by Cat Tiger and he would have been closer that day if that hadn't happened. He then went to Aintree and he ran well enough to finish 7th, but he never really had the pace to get properly competitive. Given another month to get over that I think he will be primed for this and Zac is riding as well as ever this season as he showed last night. He's been popular in the market in the early hours of the morning, but I still think there is value in the price.

Killaro Boy 2pts @ 9/4 with Bet365

[BBBC]

@Darran fantastic write up. Killaro Boy was 4/1 last night and was then kicking myself when the best price I could get this morning was 3/1! Great to see I appear to be on the right track