Point-To-Point bumper - 8.35 Aintree

[Darran]

In the end I couldn't make up my mind what to do at Fontwell so I just left the race alone. The rain stayed away for Law Of Gold and he ended up landing a fairly comfortable success at the line. As Dale said after the race though Maxwell set the race up nicely for him on Shantou Flyer as he gave him a good gallop to aim at. My eye kept being drawn to the times on screen and there seemed to be plenty of red furlongs which suggests to me that the favourite was going too fast and he had little left at the end. Dale gave the winner a good ride though because as they jumped the first on the last circuit he realised he needed to wake his mount up and go and challenge Shantou Flyer. My guess is he will be heading to Stratford for their Foxhunter in a couple of weeks and if the ground remains decent then he will have a leading chance. Dundrum Wood wasn't good enough to go with the front two, but I also suspect he wanted the rain to come and in the end he was only just in front of Keltus.

Tonight Aintree host the 2nd of 3 point-to-point bumpers and I was amazed when Crews Pitch was put in as a 5/4 favourite. This race looks stronger than the Exeter contest he was 2nd in last month so I am happy to pass him over.

Foxinthebox has become favourite on his first start for Olly Murphy after making his debut at Barbury in December when with Francesca Nimmo. He jumped terribly that day and did as well as he did to get as close as he did. No obstacles will clearly help him based on that and his former yard are well known for producing good young horses. My one concern though is he also got outpaced at Barbury so he might not want a sharp test like this.

If I Say is next in the betting and she beat Time Bandit on debut at Chaddesley Corbett last month. She came from off the pace, which was quite a strong one unusually for a bumper and hit the front about a furlong out. She then looked green but kept finding to win by just under 2L. I actually think that Time Bandit has a good chance of reversing the form. He helped make the strong pace and crucially he carried 7lbs more than the winner and here they will be off level weights with Darren's claim. We know how good the trainer is as well so that is another plus and I like the way he stayed on once he was past. Granted the winner should come on for the experience, but the price difference is too big for me.

Latenightfumble goes for the Ellis team and you always have to respect one of theirs, but I get the feeling she is running as she is the only one who qualifies for a bonus linked to the race. She did bolt up at Dingley in April in what is her only start over less than 2m and she doesn't seem to quite stay 3m as she showed again in a restricted at High Easter. That would suggest 2m might suit as well, but having first run 2 years ago she wouldn't have the scope for progress as the others.

That leaves us with Latitude who I think has a very good chance. He was disappointing in a 2m4f maiden at Chaddesley Corbett in December when a well beaten 3rd although he looked a bit of a non stayer. It could also be that he had a problem given we haven't seen him since. The key piece of form though is his first race in a bumper at Maisemore. He was really impressive that day and the form looks strong. The 12L 2nd has won since and is a horse his trainer thinks a lot off, but another 20L back in 3rd was Rose Above It who landed the Exeter bumper. Based on that at the very least he should be a shorter price than Crews Pitch. Back into a bumper I think we will see a much better performance given what he did on debut and since his trainer took out a rules licence they have done well in bumpers. Out of 13 runners in rules bumpers she has had 2 winners and 4 placed.

I certainly respect the claims of Foxinthebox and If I Say and if either of those won I wouldn't be shocked, but to me Time Bandit and especially Latitude look over priced.

Latitude 1pt @ 13/2 with Bet365

Time Bandit 0.5pts @ 16/1 with Bet365

[Wanderlust]

Spot on !!

Great tipping