Hunter Chase - 7.50 Perth

[Darran]

Sometimes you just have to hold your hands up and say you got a horse wrong and that certainly happened on Saturday as Dr Kananga stayed very well at Hexham. It was interesting listening to his jockey give an interview the next day as they really did fancy him compared to Matts Commission. He did add though that he had been gifted an easy lead and I think that helped big time especially as on paper there looked like there could have been a bit of a battle for the lead. Matts Commission travelled really well, but maybe he could have been a bit closer to the lead although it probably didn't make too much difference. The winner looks set to go under rules as his trainer, who also trains The Galloping Bear, is taking out his license.

The Perth contest tonight isn't the strongest in the world and that is proven by the fact Point The Way is such a strong favourite. He could win and clearly the 2nd to Alcala at Musselburgh in March stands out, but I don't think that form was anything to write home about at all. He finished 2nd over 4m1f last month although he was in front of Killer Crow and that one was even further behind him in that Musselburgh contest. He just looks short enough for me.

Royal Chant ran in the other hunter chase at Mussleburgh on March 3rd and he was a well beaten 4th to Captain Buck's, but I do think he has improved since then. Beating Absainte in a point on his next start was a solid piece of form especially as Absainte would have beaten him at Musselburgh had she not fallen. He then ran in the match at Sedgefield and he was travelling the best turning for home, but was just done for toe by the winner in the end. He then beat Refusual 10 days at Witton Castle where they went a crawl for most of the race, but he had too much pace for him late on. The concern with Royal Chant would be soft ground, but otherwise I think he holds a solid chance.

Magna Sam is at his best in a small field in my view as his best performances have been in 5 runner races. He was a lucky winner at Ludlow last January and then he ran a huge race as Ascot until coming down at the last. I am a bit confused as to why they have changed tactics with him to hold him up instead of making the running as they did when he won, but to be fair it worked at Ascot. After that effort he was a well beaten 6th in the Lady Dudley Cup, but I think he didn't stay that day plus it was a better race than this. He then went to Cheltenham and 2m was on the sharp side for him even round there. If it went really testing it would concern me although it shouldn't do that if the forecast is correct. This is the weakest race he's been in for a while and he is coming a long way for it as well. 

I can't see any other runner in this race being good enough to win a handicap off 120 which is something Fortunes Hiding did last July. The problem though is that effort stands out like a shore thumb from anything else he has done of late and as much as it came at Perth the trip was 2m4f. His pointing runs in the last couple of months just haven't shown enough for me to think he is a bet even though he's a big price on that handicap win.

Killer Crow and Son Of Suzie were 2nd and 3rd behind Bob And Co at Hexham last month, but they were not going very fast in the closing stages there and it is a very weak piece of form for me. I'd be surprised if Killer Crow reversed form with the favourite.

Refusal looked a very promising horse in 2018 and after winning a hunter chase at Cartmel he went to Stratford and finished 3rd to a very good horse. He then went missing until April where he pulled up behind Monbeg Chit Chat and then as mentioned above he was 2nd to Royal Chant. Clearly it is fairly hard to know where we stand with him at the moment, but there is every chance at the age of 13 he is going to come on for those two starts. I'd imagine a stronger gallop here compared to 10 days ago might just help reverse the form and if he can get back to that 2018 form he would be capable of winning this.

To be totally honest this race was giving me a right headache, but given I think the favourite is under the odds I think it is a race worth playing in. I don't really fancy Forthunes Hiding, Killer Crow, Son Of Suzie or Lord Ballim so that leaves me with 3 and I will cover them all. Magna Sam will be the main bet. He ran a huge race at Ascot and this is the worst race he's run in for a while. He's coming a long way for this as well and I don't think connections would be wasting the fuel money if they didn't think it was a winnable race for him. Royal Chant does seem to be getting better as the season goes on and he travels really well in his races although if the ground got really testing I'd be worried (as I would with Magna Sam). I also have to cover the horse he beat last time Refusal. Maybe he is nothing like the 2018 version anymore, but I have to cover him at big odds to improve for the 2 runs back after nearly 3 years off the track.

Magna Sam 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365

Refusal 0.5pts e/w @ 18/1 with Bet365

NB Royal Chant is now a non-runner