Racing Chat - Saturday April 10th

[The Brigadier]

Grand National day and the ground should be riding as it has all week which is on the soft side of good to soft.

 

Here are my daily thoughts on the 7 races at Aintree in race card order:-

 

1.45

A competitive 22 runner 3m 1/2f handicap hurdle kicks off the day with many holding chances. My short list comprises of Cheltenham Pertemps Handicap 3rd Come On Teddy who came from some way back that day and the novice Ballybegg who runs here in preference to the following 2m 4f novice hurdle (was actually left in race by mistake). Trained by Kerry Lee this is the geldings first run in a handicap. A mark of 137 looks workable and the step up in trip will suit as a former Irish pointer. His recent win at Wetherby has been franked already by subsequent victories for the 3rd and 5th. Trainer Lee was talking about a possible tilt at the Ballymore after that win but missed Cheltenham for this and can run well with the only possible negative in that he seems best on soft ground but with the on going watering this week it’s unlikely to ride good or fast.

 

BALLYBEGG 1 point EW 12/1 William Hill 1/5th 12345

 

2.25

The Mersey Novices’ Hurdle is run over 2m 4f of the Mildmay course and may go the way of Ireland. They took Cheltenham by storm and Ballyadam and Dreal Deal represent them here. Henry De Bromhead’s Ballyadam ran better than the distance he was beaten by Appreciate It in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Festival as he made a real blunder two from home just as he was going after the impressive winner. He can make amends here with the step up 1/2 mile likely to suit (he was a 3 mile point to point winner). Rachael Blackmore takes over from Jack Kennedy which is hardly a negative. The likely favourite is the Skelton’s My Drogo  who’s on a four timer and looks the chief threat.

 

BALLYADAM 2 points win 3/1 Bet365

 

3.00

The Doom Bar Maghull Novices’ Chase features the return of impressive Arkle Chase winner Shishkin who has scared off the opposition with only four prepared to take him on. Nicky Henderson’s new superstar has 19lb and upwards in hand of his quartet of rivals and should win this with a clear round. A race to sit back and enjoy with no financial interest (though maybe an interest in Shiskin to win by 12L or even bigger maybe interesting)

 

3.35

15 go to post for the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle which see’s round three of the Paisley Park/Thyne Hill battle. It stands at 1-1 following their challenges at Newbury and Ascot earlier in the season and with Thyne Hill having been forced to miss Cheltenham due to a small niggle may be the more fresher horse here and looks the likeliest  winner, though there surely won’t be much between them. Plenty of the others have lengths to make up with the big pair and if forced to select a double figure priced horse to hit the frame it would probably be last season’s Cheltenham Stayers Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar who wasn’t done with when falling in this years renewal.

Dickie Johnson has retired since Thyne Hill last ran but he has an able deputy in the new Philip Hobbs stable jockey Tom O’Brien who actually rode him to victory on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Worcester back in  October 2018.

 

THYNE HILL 2 points win 5/2 William Hill

 

4.15

This 3m 1f handicap chase is not as competitive as it may first look and the one whom stands out is the Kim Bailey trained favourite Happygolucky. He was trained for a handicap mark and ran a stormer at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima Handicap Chase when beaten into second place by the veteran Vintage Clouds. The novice has only been put up 2lb for that run and to these eyes still looks well handicapped. Outsider Lalor is an interesting runner who has a good track record but he’s been off for 441 days and that will surely be against him.  Happygolucky is a confident selection.

 

HAPPYGOLUCKY 3 points win 10/3 Bet365

 

5.15

The Grand National with a maximum field of 40 and for all the modifications to the fences over the years it still remains the one race the public love and is a real spectacle. I covered the race in detail earlier in the week but I’ll stick with my two original fancies against the field.

 

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS 1 point each way 33/1 Bet365 1/4 12345

CLOTH CAP 2 points win 11/2 Paddy Power

 

6.20

A warm favourite here for the finale of the three days, the 2m bumper for which there is a warm favourite in the Nicky Henderson trained Balco Coastal who bolted up on his rules debut in a Kempton ‘bumper for jumpers’. That form has been franked since and he will be hard to beat here. Irish raider The Gossiper has been well punted and trained by Emmet Mullins looks the biggest threat.

 

BALCO COASTAL 2 points win 11/8 William Hill

 

 

 

[Tedthewolf]

Grand National 2021

Best Bet-  MAGIC OF LIGHT 20/1- Irish raider has been here before  ran a cracker a bit of luck needed in a race of this nature   but looks to have a  very strong each way chance.

Next Best- ANIBALE FLY 28/1-Another Irish raider been here befor worn the t-shirt  again looks stong e/w material

Two outsiders- BLAKLION  66/1 & BALLYOPTIC 80/1

All bet e/w with Bet 365 1/4 5places BOG 1/2 stake money back.

Happy punting y'all?