Hunter Chase - 4.50 Exeter

[Darran]

Essentially at first glance you would think this should be a fairly easy task for Chameron and it might well turn out like that. The big concern you have to have in the back of your mind though is his Cheltenham performance which was shocking. He jumped terribly and he was tailing himself off at an early stage. Now clearly connections must think he is fine to run him again so soon and will be expecting a better performance. There has to be a chance though that experience will have left a mark and when he gets back on a racecourse he will remember it. I'm a bit surprised they haven't run him in a point first to help with his confidence.

What I will say is though that they have stumbled on a poor race where he only has one rival. Sam Red has been backed last night which baffles me because his form gives him no chance of beating the two in front of him in the betting. Staple Head didn't run too badly at big odds in his first two hunter chases at Ludow and Leicester, but back at Ludlow a month ago he ran poorly. His only win came in a match and he needs something strange to happen to win. Rock On Carlos needs to start now to win.

So that leaves us with the one creditable rival Wick Green. He is 5/9 in points and his stand out piece of form is his Larkhill win last January when he beat Captain Buck's by a head in a time that was 2 seconds quicker than Shantou Flyer on the same card and Wick Green carried 8lbs more. Marten was 20L back in 3rd that day and he got much closer on his next start at Horesheath, but it was still a good win on soft ground which may not have suited. Not surprisingly that was his last run of the season and he returned at Southwell in a Novice Hurdle back in December and then here in the same grade a month ago. There wasn't a huge amount of promise in them, but I suspect they were being used as fitness runs for when the trainer was able to ride him in a hunter chase or point. The quick ground looks likely to suit as well.

Chameron is clearly the right favourite, but Wick Green looks a promising rival on his pointing form especially that Larkhill win and that gives him a chance of beating the favourite, especially if he performs like he did at Cheltenham. I really hope that we don't see a non-runner because at the current price he looks a cracking e/w bet because he really ought to finish 2nd at worse and I think there is certainly a chance he can win the race.

Wick Green 2pts e/w @ 11/2 with Bet365

[Darran]

Of course the the outsider has come out leaving just the 4 of them. There is no way I want 4pts win on Wick Green so the recommendation now is to cash out and just have a point win on him at 7/2