Hunter Chases - 4.45 Warwick & 5.00 Fakenham

[Darran]

It really ought to be an across the card Sam Loxton double today as he has two classy horses in Caid Du Berlais and Monsieur Gibraltar who look a fair way above their rivals. Caid Du Berlais has only one serious rival at Warwick in Bishops Road. Bishops Road did win over this trip at Cheltenham in 2019 and in theory hammering Risk A Fine by 32L is a very strong piece of form, but that one hated the track and ground that night and it meant Bishops Road had little to beat. I think he will find himself out paced round here on good ground as I get the feeling Will Biddick will repeat Bryony Frost's Wincanton tactics of an aggressive front running ride and he just won't be able to catch him. Golden Tobouggan who was 2nd at Wincanton was beaten at Stratford, but given he got so worked up before the race I wouldn't pay any attention to that run. The others have no chance unless something unusual happens although I suspect Iftriaaq might be capable of showing a bit more than he has so far over this trip on better ground.

If you have a long memory I put Monsieur Gibraltar up as a bet in a handicap at Uttoxeter in the summer off 138 only for him to be a non runner annoyingly. For me he reached new heights in 2019 and he won 7 on the bounce including a very good win at Wincanton beating Risk A Fine by 9L which was shown to be top class form by what that horse went on to do. He only got chance to run once last year but he bolted up at Larkhill at short odds. I guess the slight concern is that this is his jockey's first ride in a while so he won't be at match fitness, but the horse is an easy ride so it shouldn't make too much of a difference. The other thing people might look to was his poor performance over course and distance in 2017, but that came not long after a trip to Ireland for the Champion Hunters Chase at Punchestown where he ran poorly so I can easily forgive him that effort. He ought to have too much class for these.

Peacocks Secret should follow him home as well. Dale Peters has his horses in good form at the moment and he rode and trained a couple of winners yesterday on pointing's return. He put up a gallant effort to finish 2nd to Tango De Juilley at Leicester over 2m and that form is clear 2nd best here. The one slight concern would be the trip, but he seemed to stay well enough in Irish points in October and November and he should really stay the trip round Fakenham on good ground.

Pair Of Jacks has been priced up on his BHA rating of 123 and not his very ordinary pointing form in 2018/19. His been off the track for nearly 2 years and he has little chance for me.

There isn't really a betting opportunity at Warwick, but I like the forecast play at Fakenham although it could be worth taking a price as I suspect Pair Of Jacks will continue to drift. It is currently evens with Bet365.

Monsieur Gibraltar to beat Peacocks Secret 2pts f/c

A quick look back on Ascot on Sunday and although I suspect Magna Sam was going to finish 3rd it was still a shame to see him come down at the last and at least I was right that he had the potential to run a much better race than he had. He hit the front between the final two fences, but I suspect his jockey should went for home a bit too early. I can see him picking up a race on the back of this against the right rivals. Alcala looked in trouble turning for home, but eventually got on top on the run in. Hard to know what to make of him really, but maybe he just needs a bit further now as well as not being quite as good as he was last season. Tanit River jumped poorly again as he did at Fontwell, but still ran well to finish 2nd. He might find a race, but his jumping will always stay a concern. Teeton Surprise didn't go a yard and looks one to be very wary off.