Hunter Chase - 4.30 Ascot

[Darran]

We have another Paul Nicholls long odds on favourite for this contest and Alcala ought to win as the odds suggest. There is nothing as good as Salvatore who beat him at Musselburgh and I'm not sure it is any harder than the contest he won up in Scotland the last time. The drop back in trip will suit him as well so it is hard to pick any holes in him.

Clear 2nd in is Tanit River who was running a big race at Fontwell when he unseated at 2 out in the race won by The Gallloping Bear. It is hard to know where he would have finished that day, but it was obviously a promising run. The problem is it was his best run for years and certainly looked like it would be an improvement on his pointing form from last year. I'm not sure I trust him to repeat that effort here and I am happy to take a chance of something else finishing 2nd.

Straidnahanna didn't show enough for me at Leicester on his stable debut so I will pass him over and instead I will risk the other two outsiders.

Magna Sam won the race when Alcala fell at Ludlow last season and although a lucky winner it was still a good performance. Now in two races since, at Leicester last February and the same Ludlow this year, he has pulled up and not shown a great deal. I do though think it doesn't take too much of a leap of faith to think he could do better today. First of all he enjoyed being prominent in a small field at Ludlow last year and in a bigger and stronger field this year he wasn't able to do that. At Leicester the ground was very testing and he clearly hated it. Back on a quicker surface should suit so he could go better here.

I must admit when Teeton Surprise somehow finished 3rd at Wetherby behind Duhallow Tornado last month I wasn't thinking I would be tempted to back him in someway next time out, but again I think there is a chance he could show better form here. The Wincanton run wasn't a total shocker and he had shown promise at Larkhill behind Salvatore in December. That effort came on good ground as did his Maiden win in 2019 and his Restricted win last year. With pointing starting again tomorrow he could easily go and find an Intermediate rather than run in a hunter chase, but clearly connections think he can pick up some prize money behind Alcala. Cheekpieces go on for the first time which isn't a bad thing based on the Wetherby run and he is only 8 with just 8 runs to his name so there could be more to come. With the niggle that Tanit River might not run his race I am happy to chance the forecast of Alcala to beat Magna Sam or Teeton Surprise to small stakes.

Alcala to beat Magna Sam 0.5pts f/c

Alcala to beat Teeton Surprise 0.5pts f/c