Hunter Chase - 3.03 Stratford

[Darran]

A quick look back at Leicester's race on Friday first and it saw a good front running ride from Tom Scudamore on the winner who will know doubt be Aintree bound now. I can see him running well although you do wonder if he will be able to reverse form with Cat Tiger let alone beat the other possible leading contenders. Peacocks Secret has run well in 2nd and ought to be able to find a winning opportunity this season and the 3rd Killiney Court benefitted from the jockey change and the drop in trip. Clondaw Westie was disappointing again back in 6th.

This will be a briefer preview than is sometimes the case as I had my vaccine yesterday and my arm is hurting whilst I type! Handily though for me there are only two possible winners. I am just as happy to oppose Maitree Express as I was when he was meant to run at Ludlow and as I keep saying I'm Wiser Now will always find at least 1 too good. 

I was pretty strong on Golden Tobouggan when he was due to run in this contest in 2019, but he didn't want to come out onto the track and had to be withdrawn. I'm even stronger on him this time around as his form is miles clear of anything else in the rest. I was a bit surprised he was so well backed at Wincanton last time as he needed to step up a fair bit on his Maisemore October win, but he duly showed the sort of form in the 2019 season when he finished 2nd to 3 good horses. He added a 4th one to that at Wincanton when Caid Du Berlais beat him in what was a very good performance. I honestly can't see how anything else in the race could have finished 2nd in that Wincanton contest and a repeat should be more than enough.

The other one who has a chance for me is Envoye Special who was 3rd to Chameron and Cousin Pascal at Leicester. Now he was 29L behind them, but we know that form is strong and he will appreciate the better ground here. He travelled well into the race, but didn't see the race out in the conditions especially given the opposition. He showed promise on his 5th behind Salvatore at Larkhill in December as well. I want him onside just in case something happens to Golden Tobouggan, but I am very strong on the favourite winning this.

Golden Toubouggan 4pts @ 13/8 with Betfair

Envoye  Special 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365

[PlacepotterMan]

1 minute ago, Darran said:

A quick look back at Leicester's race on Friday first and it saw a good front running ride from Tom Scudamore on the winner who will know doubt be Aintree bound now. I can see him running well although you do wonder if he will be able to reverse form with Cat Tiger let alone beat the other possible leading contenders. Peacocks Secret has run well in 2nd and ought to be able to find a winning opportunity this season and the 3rd Killiney Court benefitted from the jockey change and the drop in trip. Clondaw Westie was disappointing again back in 6th.

This will be a briefer preview than is sometimes the case as I had my vaccine yesterday and my arm is hurting whilst I type! Handily though for me there are only two possible winners. I am just as happy to oppose Maitree Express as I was when he was meant to run at Ludlow and as I keep saying I'm Wiser Now will always find at least 1 too good. 

I was pretty strong on Golden Tobouggan when he was due to run in this contest in 2019, but he didn't want to come out onto the track and had to be withdrawn. I'm even stronger on him this time around as his form is miles clear of anything else in the rest. I was a bit surprised he was so well backed at Wincanton last time as he needed to step up a fair bit on his Maisemore October win, but he duly showed the sort of form in the 2019 season when he finished 2nd to 3 good horses. He added a 4th one to that at Wincanton when Caid Du Berlais beat him in what was a very good performance. I honestly can't see how anything else in the race could have finished 2nd in that Wincanton contest and a repeat should be more than enough.

The other one who has a chance for me is Envoye Special who was 3rd to Chameron and Cousin Pascal at Leicester. Now he was 29L behind them, but we know that form is strong and he will appreciate the better ground here. He travelled well into the race, but didn't see the race out in the conditions especially given the opposition. He showed promise on his 5th behind Salvatore at Larkhill in December as well. I want him onside just in case something happens to Golden Tobouggan, but I am very strong on the favourite winning this.

Golden Toubouggan 4pts @ 13/8 with Betfair

Envoye  Special 1pt @ 11/2 with Bet365

Thankyou ...thats my placepot picks for that race

[Darran]

Fair to say that was a costly race! I knew things weren't looking good when Golden Tobouggan got himself so buzzed up down at the start. He went down to the start early and was fine, but when the others joined him he went a bit mad and was sweating very badly. He also kicked Maitree Express which meant he had to be withdrawn. It also didn't help that he was taken on for the lead as I think if he had been given an easier time of things up front he might have been able to hold, but jumping the last he was a spent force. He clearly is capable of winning a hunter chase, but you would probably thing twice about backing him at a short price again after today's antics. I thought Liam Harrison gave the winner a superb ride. We know he's a horse who finds it hard to win and he sat and waited to push the button until as late as possible. He also had to give him time to recover form a bad error at 4 out and he wasn't great 2 out either. If he was ever going to win a race though this was the perfect set of circumstances given what happened to the favourite and I'm not sure I would be backing him to follow up. Gottogetaway ran well to finish 3rd, but there has to be serious question marks about Envoye Special after this. The jockey seemed to make very little effort to actually win the race, but I wonder if that is because he doesn't find anything off the bridle. The only time he has won was on his debut in France and he won by 20L. I think he is certainly a horse to have reservations about now.

That's it until the big one at Cheltenham on Friday when we also have Fakenham. I will update that thread once the final entries are made on Wednesday and post final thoughts on Thursday.