Hunter chase - 4.19 Musselburgh

[Darran]

I will get round to reviewing the Warwick and Wincanton hunter chases over the weekend, but good old home schooling is getting in the way! With Wetherby off we are down to just Musselburgh for the hunter chase action for the Scottish Foxhunter (note they haven't changed the name). 

There might well be 14 runners, but at most only 5 have a chance of winning. Senor Lombardy is the first runner under rules for Brian Harding and he landed a point at Alnwick in December in impressive style and unlike when he went chasing under rules, he actually jumped well. The time wasn't especially quick though and given how he struggled over fences last season that has to be a concern back under rules. There was also certainly nothing of the quality of those above him in the market here.

Clondaw Westie did me a good turn when winning at Ffos Las last March, but that came over 2m5f and again it didn't have the sort of quality that this race features. He pulled up at Kimble back in November in the same race Porlock Bay won, but I suspect the quick ground didn't help that day although he surely wouldn't have beaten him anyway. I'm a bit surprised that Lawney is sending the one horse all this way over a trip that looks like it will be too far for him, so maybe she has more confidence in his stamina than I do.

Donald McCain doesn't send too many horses hunter chasing, but Federici comes here after pulling up in the Grand Sefton last time. The time before that he won at Carlisle over 3m2f off 124, but only 1 other horse finished the race. He will clearly stay, but I think he will probably need the front two in the betting to under perform to win.

So that brings us on to Salvatore and Alcala who aren't separated by much in the market. This is Salvatore's 2nd hunter chase after he was 3rd to Latenightpass in the Intermediate Final which means the front 3 from that race have all run this week. He was backed off the boards that night and the SP of 13/8 was shocking value really. He found himself outpaced and then taking the turn at the top of the course he got badly hampered. He then got hampered again by a faller at the next fence which did not help matters at all given he was already struggling to go the pace. He finished the race off well though to only go down by just over 7L. He has won 10 of his 15 points, but the form of them have not been overly strong when you compare it to Alcala's. The pick is probably one of the times he was beaten when 3rd to Shantou Flyer last January at Larkhill although he has tended to need his 1st run of the season as he showed again on Thursday at Wincanton so I wouldn't take that form literately. He has had a run this season when winning at Larkhill in December when beating Coningsby, but that one didn't exactly do much for the form on Thursday at Wincanton. The ground shouldn't be an issue though and nor should the trip. 

The question is will he be good enough to beat Alcala and I am not sure that he will be. He was one of the highest rated point or hunter chasers according to the form book last season and was really impressive when winning the Walrus at Haydock a year ago. That came on the back of a fall at Ludlow which meant he then had to got to Fontwell a week after the Haydock run to qualify for Cheltenham. He finished 2nd to Bob And Co that day which is obviously a good effort and then I suspect those quick runs told at Cheltenham when 9th and he ran OK. He's 11 now and there is always a question mark when they get to this sort of age as to how much ability they retain, but on bare form for me he should be odds on to win this race. He seems to be staying better now than he used to and clearly testing ground holds no fears for him. He has a good jockey claiming 7lbs to reduce the amount of weight he has to give Salvatore and it means he gets weight from Federici and Clondaw Westie. For me he is the one they all have to beat.

Alcala 2pts @ 11/8 with William Hill

[yossa6133]

6/4 with Marathon Bet at the moment.