Racing Chat - Saturday 19th September

[Darran]

Group 1 action at both Caulfield and Randwick in the morning and plenty of clues for other big races to come in the next month and a half as well. Drew a blank last week although Flemington missing the forecast rain didn't help matters as it ended up being very quick ground. I have bets in 7 races tomorrow

Caulfield R4 (5.15am)

I like the look of Front Page here who has won 4 of his 6 starts including the last 3. He has gone from a BM58 to a BM68 and then won in Listed company at Flemington last time. That is like going from a Class 6 to a Class 5 and then into Listed company over here. Those races were in May and June so he is 1st up here, but has won both times 1st up so that isn't an issue and he was really impressive at Flemington winning by nearly 3L and clocking a good time. He is likely to be hard to beat, but I will have a saver on William Thomas. He is 4/6 over 1100m and 3/5 over course and distance. He is also 1st up and has won 3/5 on 1st time up so he could easily go close here.

Front Page @ 7/4 with Bet365

William Thomas @ 13/2 with Bet365

Caulfield R6 (6.35am)

Aidensfield is the pick here. She won her 1st two races here and at Sandown in May and then was 2nd a couple of weeks ago in a Listed race at Moonee Valley. I thought she was a bit unlucky there as well as she had to make a sweeping run on the outside whereas the winner got a nice run on the inside and was able to sit and sprint. The winner is a good horse anyway so it was a good effort and she looks like being capable of going 1 better here.

Aidensfield @ 3/1 with Bet365

Caulfield R9 (8.25am)

I'm pretty keen on Lyre here who looks to have been found a good opportunity in this G3 contest to end the card. She had some strong form in G1 races earlier in the year including being 2nd to Bella Vella in the Sangster at Morphettville and 3rd in the Goodwood at the same venue. 1st up she was 2nd over 1100m here last month and she was a touch unlucky as well. Going up to 1200m will suit and she really deserves to get her head in front again. She's got good draw in 3 so should be able to sit just behind the speed and then pounce in the straight.

Lyre @ 6/4 with William Hill

Randwick R3 (4.25am)

Cinquedea had been struggling a bit on testing ground, but put in a much improved performance on a Good 4 over 1500m here a couple of weeks ago. He had a terrible draw and found herself way too far back in a race dominated by those on the speed, before flying home. He clocked the 3rd best final 600m, 400m and 200m of the whole day on that occasion. His last win came over this trip back in February and with a much better draw, down in grade hopefully he can build on that last time out effort. I do want Across Dubai on side again having been on him last time when he was 4th in the same race as Cinquedea. That's 3 solid runs now since arriving in Australia and he should be fitter for this 2nd up.

Cinquedea e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred

Across Dubai e/w @ 10/1 with Betfred

Randwick R5 (5.40am)

Probabeel ran a huge race 1st up over 1200m here a month ago a trip which would have been too short for her. She didn't have much room until late on either and when she got out she flew home. Her 2nd up stats are impressive and she has finished in the 1st 2 in 12 of her 16 starts. She won a G1 over this course and distance in February and I think she can take this G3 on the way to bigger targets this spring.

Probabeel @ 17/10 with Bet365

Randwick R6 (6.15am)

The G1 George Main looks a good chance for Verry Elleegant to land another G1 contest. I didn't fancy her in the Winx Stakes a month ago as I thought the 1400m would be too short for her, but she put in a really impressive performance to win that day. That was her 1st run since finishing 2nd to Addeybb in the Queen Elizabeth in April. Avilius won this last year and ran well last time, but he usually finishes behind Verry Elleegant now.

Verry Elleegant @ 7/5 with Bet365

Randwick R9 (8.15am)

Criaderas is 3/3 for Godolphin and set a track record last time (although that is from a small sample size), but the form hasn't worked out that well so I am going to take him on with Icebath. I have put him up the last twice and she hasn't had a great deal of luck in running either time. She found himself too far back last time and then got hampered around 200m out. She is clearly ready to win and hopefully she gets a better ride and more luck this time.

Icebath @ 18/5 with Bet365

[andypandy23]

@Darran what is going on? Your tips have been crap for over a month!