US Open

[Squirrel Nutkin]

I thought I'd get this up early. There are so many previews out there already I can see a lot of the picks getting backed and the value disappearing. My main bets are on, but will no doubt have a few more before Thursday. 

I'm sure Fader will be here with another quality write up, but for now these are my picks:

Patrick Reed 2.5pt ew @ 33/1 skybet

Patrick Reed 1st rd leader and outright 1pt @ 125/1

Tommy Fleetwood 2pt ew @ 35/1 hills

Sky are slightly shorter prices, but paying a very generous 11 places. Went with Hills for Fleetwood as he was an extra 10 points but paying 9 places.

[Squirrel Nutkin]

I've narrowed it down to my top 5:

Rahm, Hatton, Reed, Schauffele, Fleetwood.

Not that adventurous price wise, so I've done them as dual forecast with Skybet. Ranging from 100/1 Rahm/Schauffele to 600/1 Fleetwood/Hatton, 0.5pt on each.

And my outright longshot is Mickelson 0.5 ew @ 100/1 bet365

Done a couple of 1st round leaders who will be playing on their birthday! Not the most scientific approach ?

Byeong Hun An 0.5pt ew @ 100/1 7 places PP

Viktor Hovland 0.5pt ew @ 55/1 6 places sky

Good luck if you're playing.

Edited September 15, 2020 by Squirrel Nutkin

[colp]

I took a look last night and found myself struggling to see past the front 3 in the betting (DJ/Rahm/JT) The only others I considered were Cantlay and Morikawa, so hardly original selections! Good luck if playing on this one, it should be gripping stuff as this course is notoriously tricky. 

[Fader]

Good luck all,

I do love an Open! You need abit of length here and you can't be going all over the place, too. You can see why DJ and Rahm are big favourites this week, you'd fancy them at any course right now, especially DJ. Woodland won this last time out at 80/1! Also rather interestingly there has been many "first time major winners" in the last 10 years. Perhaps it's Finaus chance?

I don't remember ever being able to get McIlroy at 16/1 for a major, maybe that's just me. I can't be backing anybody shorter than 16/1 this week and so Rory would be the first in the list at the top for me to think about. However, I think there is some better value nevertheless.

no rain forecast so it should be very fast with fast greens. A real tricky course. I want somebody who can scramble here. Here is my 5

2pts E/W X.Schauffele to win US Open 14/1 willhill (9 places, 1/5th)
1pt E/W D.Berger to win US Open 30/1 willhill (9 places, 1/5th)
1pt E/W H.Matsuyama to win US Open 33/1 willhill (9 places, 1/5th)
1pt E/W P.Reed to win US Open 35/1 willhill (9 places, 1/5th)
1pt E/W T.Hatton to win US Open 45/1 willhill (9 places, 1/5th)
 

 

 

 

[Fader]

I'm going to add :
1pt E/W C.Morikawa to win US Open 16/1 paddypower (10 places, 1/5th)
0.5pts E/W B.Todd to win US Open 80/1 paddypower (10 places, 1/5th)
 

[Fader]

Squirrel, did you go each-way on the "reed 1st round leader and win" ?

so unlucky.

[Squirrel Nutkin]

No, it wasn't an option ??

Reed outright is now best bet. And outsider Reed/Schauffele dual forecast @ 350/1

 

[Fader]

yeah happy to be on Reed and Xander. I still think Todd looks a good each-way bet 

[Fader]

third rounder leader looks very open. I'm going to take a small punt on Xander and Matsuyama

1pt X.Schauffele third round leader 16/1 betfair
1pt E/W H.Matsuyama third round leader 28/1 888sport (3 places, 1/4th odds)

[Fader]

what a massive disappointment that event was for me. I can't believe DeCheambeau can win the US Open. Only Xander in the placings for me and even he was a huge disappointment.  Matusuyama in round 3 finishes 1 place below just frustrating

US Open -10pts

 

[Squirrel Nutkin]

Yeah, very disappointing for me also. Reed was going so well half way through the 3rd round, then dropped 8 shots in 8 holes!