Racing Chat - Saturday 30th May

[Darran]

The Australian action on Saturday comes from Caulfield in Melbourne and Rosehill in Sydney. Those two meetings will be my focus although there is some good racing at Doomben in Brisbane as well.

Caulfield R2 (3.15am)

I don't think it's the easiest card in the world this Caulfield card and this race is a case in point, but I do like two horses against the field. Paul's Regret is on her 3rd start of the prep having run two good races here so far. She was just beaten into 2nd 1st up last month and then 3 weeks ago she found herself too far back as well as racing on the worst going. She struggled to get a run until she moved off the rail in the straight and then flew home for 4th in the quickest last 200m of the race. Craig Williams takes over in the saddle and she has a good draw in 5. She looks ready to win.

I put up Felicia 3 weeks ago when she finished 5th here in the same race that Paul's Regret was 4th in. She had also finished 1 place behind her on her first run of the prep so clearly they are closely matched. She did plenty of work early last time in my view as she had to be pushed to make the running and she didn't have a great deal left in the final 200m as she faded into 5th. That was her first run on heavy ground so back onto a quicker surface and back down to 1100m should suit.

Paul's Regret @ 9/2 with Bet365

Felicia @ 13/2 with Bet365

Caulfield R5 (5.05am)

Jamaican Hurry landed the hat-trick at Flemington a couple of weeks ago when just getting the better of Gododdin, but I think the form will be reversed and Gododdin can win this race. That day Gododdin was giving the winner 4kg, but they race of level weights here and Jamaican Hurry has a shocking draw in 16. Gododdin has a great draw in 7 and has a great record over course and distance having won twice from three starts. Everything looks primed for her to go close.

Dyslexic and Tahitian Dancer can both go well, but I am going to have a saver on Twitchy Frank. I have put her up in both runs since I have started the Australian previews as she is usually so consistent. She was a good 3rd at Bendigo, but then ran her worst race for ages here last time. She had to work fairly hard to get to the lead and then just dropped away very tamely in the straight. That wasn't her running at all and she is better than that. Given she has been off for 42 days since there must have been something wrong with her and I fully expect to see a better performance here. She is 1 from 1 over course and distance.

Gododdin @ 11/4 with Bet365

Twitchy Frank 15/2 with Paddy Power

Caulfield R6 (5.45am)

News Girl won a race over course and distance 3 weeks ago and had Coruscate in behind and that one won at Randwick last week so the form looks solid. I do think though that another horse who finished behind her can reverse the form. Tavisan was 4th that day, but raced on the inside which was the worst going and she did well to finish 4th. That was her first run on heavy ground and coming back to a quicker surface will do no harm at all. She ran well 1st up as well when just behind Bella Vella who went on to land a G1 after that. She looks to have great claims.

I am also going to back Inn Keeper who ended up up in a speed battle here 1st up, but has gone close on her other two starts this prep. He was 3rd in a Listed Race at Warrnambool when racing in the worst ground and was then 2nd at Cranbourne when he was carrying 63kg in a BM84. He has a good record in the wet, but has done well on quicker going as well so that shouldn't be an issue.

Tavisan @ 6/1 with Betfair

Inn Keeper e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill and Betfred

Caulfield R7 (6.25am)

Last year's Northumberland Plate 4th Bartholomeu Dias makes his Australian debut here, but it is hard to think that he will be at his best over 1600m. He did show he looks in good form in a jumpout at Sandown recently, but even so the shortest trip he won over when trained by Charlie Hills was 1900m. So one to keep an eye on rather than back.

Instead the main one I like is Sikorsky who I put up when he won at Flemington a couple of weeks ago and he looked really good that day. He had good Group form last prep and so he shouldn't have any issues going up to a BM84 here. I think he has a great chance in following up.

I will also be having an e/w bet on Liapari. Granted he has a poor draw in 15, but he ran a huge race on his first run since last June over course and distance 3 weeks ago. He finished 2nd to So Si Bon who is a horse in good heart at the moment. He also didn't have a great passage in running as he had to travel 3 and 4 wide with no cover and yet he was still able to stay on into 2nd place. He does have 63kg to catty here as he drops in class, but he should be fitter here and can go close.

Sikorsky @ 11/10 with Bet365

Liapari e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill

Caulfield R9 (7.38am)

A good race this and a few in here and I backed last time including Super Titus. I think he has a good chance again, but Mahamedies' trainer thinks he can reverse the form at these weights give there was a short head between them and he may well be right. Hang Man was a huge disappointment here 3 weeks ago, but maybe the drop to 1600m was against him so he has a chance as well.

The two I am going to put up though both have to bounce back from poor efforts last time although I think both were given poor rides. Pacodali was ridden handy last time, but I think that was the wrong move and he would have been better under a quieter ride. Up to 2000m on better ground isn't a bad move either and it is interesting they are backing him up.

Girl Tuesday was a big disappointment at Morphettville two weeks ago, but she was given a stinker of a ride. She had dropped to 12th the 400m marker having always been at the back. She ended up finishing 7th, but I certainly think that she is better than she has been able to show the last twice so I am happy to back her again. Also Damien Oliver takes over which is a big plus.

Pacodali e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places)

Girl Tuesday @ 5/1 with Bet365

Rosehill R3 (3.40am)

First of all I will talk about the ground. It is currently a Heavy 9 at Rosehill after rain on Friday, but Saturday is set to be sunny and warm for the time of year so it should dry out and I reckon it could get into the Soft range come the start of racing.

Sally's Day went massively up in class from winning a BM64 at Wyong to a Listed Race over 1100m here a couple of weeks, but she handled herself with great credit finishing 3rd. That was behind Fituese who is odds on to win on the card and has been great form. Sally's Day clocked the 2nd fastest last 600m in the race only being bettered by the winner. When she won at Wyong she didn't get the run of the race either so it was a very good performance. She's dropped back into a BM74 tomorrow and looks to have a cracking chance.

Mo's Crown is the other horse I like in the race. He had an awful draw at Randwick 3 weeks ago, but still managed to finish 5th behind the impressive Masked Crusader. Thanks to the bad draw he was 4 wide with no cover as well and I think it was a performance with great credit. He had been 5th behind another good horse in Dawn Passage in a G3 the time before and again there was plenty to like about the run. He looks up to winning a race like this.

Sally's Day @ 3/1 with Betfair, William Hill and Betfred

Mo's Crown @ 7/1 with everyone

Rosehill R4 (4.15am)

The two I like here are Trumbull and Sure Knee. Trumbull has had very little luck with the draw and 7 is the lowest draw number he has had in what will be his last 6 starts. He is drawn 8/11, 13/14, 14/14, 10/10 and 8/10 in that time and has still run really well on the whole including winning a BM88 at Randwick. Last time he was still in 9th place at the 400m marker and then flew home to finish 4th clocking a quick final 200m. That was in a Listed contest and he is back into a BM88 here. He has yet to run on heavy, but is 1/1 on soft ground. The 1500m is an unknown as well, but it looks like it should suit.

Sure Knee had no run at all on her return in a G3 here a couple of weeks ago. She was slow away, got hampered, raced keenly and only find clear daylight with 100m to run where she was finally able to be eased out in to clear air. Obviously at that stage there was no point in going hard on her because she had no chance. Having won a BM90 at Caulfield on her previous start in January she is clearly capable of winning something like this. If she gets more luck in running than last time she should go close.

Trumbull @ 16/5 with Bet365

Sure Knee @ 11/2 with Betfair

Rosehill R6 (5.30am)

Got to give Miss Einstein another chance to get her head in front which she fully deserves this prep. After the unlucky 3rd at Randwick she was 2nd last week. She was a bit keen in the early stages and had to make up a lot of ground. The winner is an improving horse so I think the form is strong and it was another good effort. As long as she copes with the quick backup I don't see how she doesn't go very close again.

Miss Einstein @ 14/5 with Bet365

Rosehill R7 (6.10am)

Jeremy Noseda used to train Sixties Groove, but he's been in Australia for a few years now and he has done pretty well including winning the Brisbane Cup last year at Eagle Farm. Since then he ran in the Wyong Cup in September but clearly something was up as he only beat one home and wasn't seen again until a couple of weeks ago in the Scone Cup. Another ex UK horse Dr Drill won that and runs again here, but I thought Sixties Groove could reverse that form here. He didn't see a lot of daylight until late on and 1600m is too short for him anyway. Up to 2000m here and he was a good 3rd in the Doomben Cup 2nd up last season. He has top weight, but deserves to be and Hugh Bowman has been booked to ride.

This race is called the Lord Mayors Cup and it is a good contest and I think a horse called The Lord Mayor has a good chance in it as well. He has a superb 3rd up record having won 3/4. If it does stay heavy he is 1/1 on a heavy track, but has won 3 times from 8 starts on a soft won as well. He has strong stats over this trip as well having won 4, finished 2nd twice and 3rd once in 10 starts over 2000m. That includes a course and distance win as well. He ran OK in the Gosford Cup last time, but as his stats prove he always tends to come on for his first two starts of a prep. He can go well at a big price.

Sixties Groove e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill

The Lord Mayor e/w @ 18/1 with everyone

Rosehill R9 (7.30am)

Adelong was a winner for us a couple of weeks ago when winning over course and distance and she looks to have a great chance of making it 5 wins from 7 starts. That win came on a Soft 5 which is the softest ground she has run on, but she handled it well so hopefully she will go on what is likely to be a softer surface. She looks very progressive and could be up to stakes class.

I am going to have an e/w saver on Broken Arrows though who was 3rd behind Adelong last time. That was his first run of the prep and he didn't get a clear run until 100m out and he ended up finishing 3rd. Obviously the winner was well gone at that point, but he should come on for that and can at the very least get closer to Adelong.

Adelong @ 6/4 with William Hill & Betfred

Broken Arrows e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill & BetVictor

[blueboy199]

1 hour ago, Darran said:

 

Sixties Groove e/w @ 8/1 with William Hill

 

Cheers Darran. Do the Aussies pay 1/4 odds? Is that why you sometimes seem to get better value on the place rather than the win? Eg Sixties Groove 8.0 to win, 3.1 to place at 365 (with the UK books 1/5 the place).