Racing Chat - Saturday 9th May

[Darran]

This Saturday in Australia we have G1 action in Adelaide with the South Australian Derby at Morphettville, in Melbourne they race at Caulfield, in Sydney they are at Randwick and I am also covering a race in Queensland this week with a very interesting G3 sprint at Doomben.

Morphettville R8 (7.31am)

Starting with the big race of the day the South Australian Derby over 2500m and quite a few of these don't seem to have much chance. Dalasan won the G3 over 2035m here a couple of weeks ago which is usually the main prep race for this. He's a good horse, but the unknown is if he will stay or not and I am happy to oppose him with Warning who finished 3rd. We already know he stays this far as he won the Victoria Derby over this trip. He was finishing fast from the back in that contest clocking the fastest last 200m in the contest and in my view he would have won the race if it had been over 2500m. 

I am also putting one up at double figures e/w in the shape of Zayydani who backs up after running in the Oaks last weekend. She was 7th in that, but didn't have a clear path at all and should have finished a lot closer. Going up to this trip looks a big plus for her and double figure quotes are too big in my view.

Russian Camelot's trainer is very bullish about his chances, but we have no idea how good he is as his last win came in a BM64 at Pakenham. He bolted up that night, but this is much tougher and he had to miss his intended prep run. In time he could turn out to be the best of these, but with so little racing I just wonder if he will find the 2500m trip too tough at the moment.

Warning @ 3/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway

Zayydani e/w @ 14/1 with William Hill (4 places)

Caulfield R2 (3.20am)

A competitive race this but I like two against the field. Sikorsky ran a decent race first up at Bendigo when 6th and he stepped up on that last time when staying on strongly from midfield to finish 2nd over 1400m. He clocked the fastest last 200m of the race that day, They were his first two runs since finishing 4th in the 2018 Victorian Derby so there is every chance 3rd up he will be ready to strike. The draw is a concern and every chance he will need a bit of luck from the back, but he has Damien Oliver on top which is a big plus.

The other one I like is Simply Optimistic who was unlucky not to win over 1100m at Bendigo 2 starts back when he was badly held up. At the 400m marker he was still 14th of 15 and yet he was able to finish 4th beaten just over a length. He was a bit keen over course and distance last time in the same race Sikorsky was 2nd, but if he settles better he has a leading chance in this. He has a good record on soft as well so the ground should be ideal for him.

Sikorsky @ 4/1 with Betfair and Betfred

Simply Optimistic @ 15/2 with Betfair

Caulfield R5 (5.15am)

It's Kind Of Magic is the main pick in this contest. She was really impressive when winning a BM70 at Moonee Valley in December when she scored despite have to come wide. She then went to the Gold Coast for the Magic Million Guineas, but she got upset before the race and was keen in it so we can cross that run off. She ran a big race on debut on her first prep and that Moonee Valley win came of the back of a freshen up so we know she can go well off a break. She looks like she could progress through the grades this prep.

I am also going to cover Felicia who ran a massive race last time over 1100m here last month finishing 3rd. That was her first run since last January so she should come on for that as long as she doesn't bounce. That was just her 3rd ever start having won her first two. Stepping up to 1200m should be ideal and if she doesn't bounce she should go very close.

It's Kind Of Magic @ 9/4 with BetVictor

Felicia @ 9/2 with everyone 

Caulfield R6 (5.55am)

Granted I am slightly concerned about the fact they are dropping him back in trip by 100m, but I am keen on Hang Man in this. He ran a solid race 1st up here when 7th over 1400m, but his last run at Flemington over 1700m a couple of weeks ago was a huge effort against a good horse. He stayed on into 2nd when the winner who had led all the way had already gone. He has got blinkers on this time so hopefully they will make him a bit sharper over 1600m. 

So Si Bon appreciated the drop in class last time and won over course and distance. He's not a prolific winner, but he has a good chance again.

I don't think Southern Rock can win this, but he is worth keeping a close eye on for the future. He is having his first start in Australia having been with David O'Meara over here last year. He won his first two races for him over a mile at Hamilton and ended up winning a class 3 at Ripon in August on his last start over just under 1m2f. I think he will want further than 1600m and he will come on for the run.

Hang Man @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor

Caulfield R7 (6.35am)

Shot Of Irish is on the back up after winning at Sandown last week when he beat one of my selections Duke Of Plumpton. He is clearly in very good form, but the track suited front runners that day so he might have been a bit flattered and he got an easy lead. There are other front runners in this so I think he will find it harder to make all. I am instead going to have my main bet on Sentimentalist who is looking to land the hat-trick having won the Stawell Cup and then 6 days later won here both after 2000m. The slight drop in trip is a bit of a concern although he did win over 1400m in February. He looks like he will settle just behind the leaders and that will be the ideal position to pounce.

I am also going to have a small e/w bet on Nobu in the hope the track hasn't got too wet by this stage. He was 4th in the Queensland Derby last June and hasn't had his conditions in 3 starts this prep. He wasn't too bad over 2000m on a heavy 9 track here a month ago, but this Chris Waller trained runner is clearly capable of much better if he gets drier conditions.

Sentimentalist @ 11/2 with everyone

Nobu e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill and Betfred

Randwick R1 (2.35am)

Two against the field for me in the opener in Sydney. Tejori looks a very smart horse and was impressive at Canberra last month when she clocked a fast time. That was just her 3rd start and she doesn't look like he will have any issues going up to 1200m for the first time. If she can build on that here then she will be hard to beat.

I am going to cover Hellenism as well as she also looks a progressive horse. She won over 1100m here in January and then had a break until April 18th when running over course and distance and finished 3rd. That form has worked out well as that race provided 3 of the first 5 home in a race here last week. She had to travel wide that day and is drawn more favourably here in 3. If Tejori doesn't come up to scratch she looks like the won who take advatange.

Tejori @ 18/5 with Bet365

Hellenism @ 4/1 with everyone

Randwick R4 (4.20am)

I like a couple here starting with Subpoenaed who ran a huge race against the very good filly Rubisaki over course and distance last time. She flew home that day and with no Rubisaki in this there is every chance she can get her head in front again back into handicap company. The slight concern is in the inside draw having not shown much speed from the gate so she will need luck in running, but if she gets that she wins for me.

Miss Einstein looks overpriced and is worth backing e/w as well. She ran really well on her 1st start  of the prep at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago when 5th over 1300m despite not getting a great deal of luck in running. She clocked the best last 600m in the race there and she should improve for that run.

Subpoenaed @ 5/2 with Bet365

Miss Einstein e/w 8/1 with William Hill and Betfred

Randwick R8 (7am)

Greyworm made all to win over course and distance last month with Deprive only finishing in 6th. Deprive had to carry 2.5kg more though and they race off level weights here. I think the form can be reversed as Greyworm got an easy lead that day and nothing came from the back. This will hopefully be a different story as Deprive had run well in better races on his other two starts this prep including a 4th in the G1 Galaxy. I'm certainly prepared to give him another chance in this.

Tactical Advantage is the other one I am going to put up. He won this contest last year and looks to have a cracking chance again. He won over 1100m at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago and his finishing sectionals were quick. If he backs that up he is a big player.

Deprive @ 4/1 with Bet365

Tactical Advantage @ 11/2 with Betfair, BetVictor and Betway

Randwick R9 (7.40am)

Decent race to end the card on and I like Dealmaker at an e/w price. Granted he doesn't win very often, but he's pretty consistent and he drops into a BM88 here. I am hoping that can prove the key to success. He was 3rd in a BM100 over 1400m here last month and that was a strong contest. He is a course and distance winner and the last time he ran over course and distance he only just lost in the Spring Mile. I am hopeful that we will get the e/w money at the very least. 

Grand Piano is the obvious danger as he looks progressive on the back of a win in a BM78 at Rosehill a couple of weeks ago. Strictly speaking Rapido Chaparro is weighted to reverse form and is another one with a chance although he doesn't have the scope for as much progression, but it is his 3rd run of the prep.

Dealmaker e/w @ 17/2 with William Hill (4 places)

Doomben R8 (6.45am)

After the big G1's are done and dusted in Adelaide the attention turns to Brisbane so the races at Doomben are stepping up in class and the G3 BRC Sprint is a very interesting race. Kementari clearly holds strong claims and I have put him up both start this prep. Both runs were good 3rds and he finished strongly last time in the race Greyworm won. I am going to leave him here though as he just seems to struggle to convert winning chances and there is value elsewhere in my view.

I always say that they don't mess around with bans in Australia and Baylee Nothdurft was banned for 3 months this week because of the ride he gave Vega One at the Sunshine Coast last time. I have put a link to an article about it all which features a video of the race and it is well worth watching. I am not surprised he got banned as it doesn't look good at all and he could easily have won the race in my view. The horse is clearly in very good form and he has a massive chance here on form. Baylee is on top again here which adds to the story as well.

https://www.punters.com.au/news/nothdurft-suspended-over-vega-one-ride_190510/

His trainer has another leading candidate in Outback Barbie and she is worth backing as well. She landed a Listed Race 1st up on her last prep and like her stablemate was also a winner at the Magic Millions meeting at the Gold Coast in January. She trialled really well and looks to be in great form. Hopefully one of them can get the better of Kementari.

Vega One @ 14/5 with Bet365

Outback Barbie @ 4/1 with William Hill

 

[Winning Heart]

Horse Form https://www.irace.com.sg/2020/05/07/free-irace-magazine-for-hong-kong-sha-tin-may-9/