Calculating expected goals per team

[Borga]

Hi all, a quick question that will hopefully yield a quick answer...

If Team A is playing Team B, and I have a bookie's Over/Under prices at hand, how can I calculate the expected goals scored by both Team A and Team B?

Simple example: Team A and Team B are both paying exactly the same price ($2.75) and the Over 2.5 goals is priced at even money ($1.95). I would assume that the expected number of goals for both teams is 1.25 (2.5 divided by 2). So a formula to work out expected goals for Team A would be (1-(A/X))*G where A = Team A's price ($2.75), X = Team A's price + Team B's price ($5.50) and G = expected goals (2.5).

I'm pretty sure this works out, but just a bit unsure whether this formula holds for any circumstance. If Barcelona are a $1.05 favourite against a $30 underdog, with total expected goals of 4.5 (Over 4.5 = $1.95) then the formula would yield Barcelona = 4.35 expected goals and Underdog = 0.15 expected goals. It does seem right but it's nagging me that I can't confirm, partly because I'm not sure how the Draw price factors into things...

So I only have one question, does all this have the ring of truth? Cheers in advance.

Edited February 22, 2020 by Borga

[harry_rag]

I don’t know and I’d just use the spreads as it’s much easier! You could do that to check if your method gives reasonable looking results. 

Taking Barca v Eibar today, one firm quotes supremacy at 1.9-2.1 and the other 2-2.2. The total goals quotes are 3.35-3.55 and 3.45-3.65. 

Taking the midpoint of those quotes suggests Barca are 2.05 goal favourites in a game where 3.5 goals are expected which gives (rounded up) 2.78 goals for Barca and 0.78 for Eibar. You also get the same results by simply using the quotes for team total goals, e.g. best priced spreads are 2.7-2.85 for Barca and 0.65-0.8 for Eibar.

Take a sample of games and see if your results are in the same ballpark.