Data Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Here's a bit of speculative fun, with looking at making a profit from one of the most difficult of football markets. Using Excel's "Solver" I processed the Premier league results to date grid by allocating an adjustable variable for each team's home/away attack/defence ratings to drill down to the best fit of correct scores to the games played to date. Once the best fit is arrived at then simply applying the finished formula to the next set of games. I figured (rightly or wrongly) that the strategy would need at least half of the season completed in order to have a healthy sample size to be anywhere near "reliable", for this reason I'm only concerned with games from January 1st onwards. The two game days so far this season have given 3 correct from the 20 games played, bet365 odds for these were 8.00 (twice) and 9.00 from indicating two 1~1 results and a 2~1. Thus far then 25pts return from 20pts staked. Here's this weekend's Excel predictions, can it keep up the profitable momentum? Watford Tottenham 2~2 Arsenal Sheff United 0~1 Brighton Aston Villa 2~2 Man City Crystal Palace 1~1 Norwich Bournemouth 2~1 Southampt Wolves 1~2 West Ham Everton 2~1 Newcastle Chelsea 1~2 Burnley Leicester 0~2 Liverpool Man United 2~0 Torque, Zico10 and LEE-GRAYS 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zico10 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 I love a correct score prediction. I'll follow this with interest! Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 might not have got score right but got result right on most wich would make a decent profit if it happend regular Quote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted January 18, 2020 Author Share Posted January 18, 2020 Being close is not winning correct scores, it does maybe tempt the punter into keep blowing their money! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zico10 Posted January 18, 2020 Share Posted January 18, 2020 Don't lose faith data! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted January 20, 2020 Author Share Posted January 20, 2020 Liverpool saved the weekend for the strategy with a 2-0 victory at 8.00, so not a total wipe out. Ongoing returns now stand at 33pts returned from 30pts staked, ROI 10% This week's projected scores are as follows; Bournemouth Brighton 1~1 Aston Villa Watford 1~1 Everton Newcastle 1~0 Sheffield Utd Man City 0~1 Crystal Palace Southamptn 1~1 Chelsea Arsenal 2~1 Leicester West Ham 1~0 Tottenham Norwich 2~1 Man United Burnley 2~1 Wolves Liverpool 1~2 Zico10 and thecurlyone1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 21, 2020 Share Posted January 21, 2020 Hi Data Not a lover of correct score prediction mainly due to the abysmal overound placed on them, but I do like a bit of stats analysis . I know you are only doing the prem atm but I like to look at the overall picture. These Stats are from 137000+ games Table 1 As you can see 71.9% of CS fall within the green zone with 1-1 being the optimum score @ 12.54 % and 1-0 the NB @ 10.92 , when joined with the yellow zone the sr %age goes to 89.63% with the other scores making up the 10.37% remaining outliers.So I personally would focus on the SR that my model throws up @ 1-0 & 1-1 On 1/18/2020 at 10:03 AM, Data said: Using Excel's "Solver" I processed the Premier league results to date grid by allocating an adjustable variable for each team's home/away attack/defence ratings I dont know how your adjustable variable is incorporated into Solver but a simple setup using solver to reduce SSE by changing the ratings,calculating the mean and constraining H & A average rating to =1 rather than 0 (you cant have negative goals) seems to do the job easy enough. Ran the solver from Jan onwards same as you, which produced Table 2 The 1-1 draw seems to be just higher than ave with table 1 (small sample though) 6 drawing 1-1 from 40 games = 15% , when expected 1-1 draws from sample size should be around 5. Although 10 draws were predicted. We both agree on two 1-1 scorelines tonight so you never know Best of luck ,hope it works out for you Torque, Zico10 and Data 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted January 22, 2020 Author Share Posted January 22, 2020 Well, both techniques brought in one winner from the Tuesday results . . . but neither of them a 1-1 draw. Though your 2-1 Villa victory at 12.00 easily trumps my Man City score at 7.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 22, 2020 Share Posted January 22, 2020 @Data both sneaked the 2-1 with spurs @ 8.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted January 23, 2020 Author Share Posted January 23, 2020 On 1/21/2020 at 4:13 PM, Valiant Thor said: Hi Data Not a lover of correct score prediction mainly due to the abysmal overound placed on them, but I do like a bit of stats analysis . Exactly my sentiments, but maybe like me you enjoy the chase even more than the kill, find investigating & number crunching extremely therapeutic. All too easy in this challenge to have the solutions throwing up a disproportionate number of 1-1 draws, being the most frequent of scores as you've pointed out. Also predicting too few games where one or both team fails to score, where as your stats indicate the home team fails to score in over 20% of games, which increases to over 30% when looking at away team scores. I'm trying to address this by minimizing the error of goals scored by each team rather than aiming for 12X accuracy. I've used the same technique now with Championship and L1 & L2 games since Jan 1st, and overall the method just about breaks even which is very encouraging in such a high overround environment. L1 & L2 both show profits, it's the Championship which has spoiled the party where returns have been abysmal! Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zico10 Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Really enjoying this thread as I do correct score bets myself. The exchange offers better prices than the bookies, sometimes quite considerable. For mine I simply check the league tables and form tables and apply a bit of gut feeling so it'll be interesting to see how mine compare to yours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 6 hours ago, Data said: but maybe like me you enjoy the chase even more than the kill No I only go for the jugular , If I go fishing I go to the pond where the big fish swim, I'm not interested where the minnows are Im a pareto principle type backer I concentrate on trying to find my edge within the 20% that win around 80% of the time (not literally those exact %ages) and discard the 80% that that make up the other 20% So basically Im not interested in the crap on the RH side of the red line as on average hitting those individual scorelines is few and far between in comparison to the LH side of the red line, Trying to optimise a model for the few is irrelevant IMO, I leave chasing tails to dogs as they're better at it. If I had a model that predicted the LH side of the graph scores with some degree of accuracy backtested over say 4 or 5 seasons I might be tempted to delve a little deeper,we shall see. If I cant see it being profitable for me I try to avoid it, hence not liking correct scores, But there's nothing wrong with having a play with the numbers and if it selects 10 possible 1-1 draws every 40 games and 6 win @ average odds of around 6.5 ish then I might be changing my mind very quickly Good luck with your quest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 23, 2020 Share Posted January 23, 2020 Wolves v Liverpool 1-2 Another one sneaks in @ 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted January 25, 2020 Author Share Posted January 25, 2020 Wow, swamping me with your metaphors, jugular dog tails & fish. I think I know where you're coming from, my mantra was always odds of evens or better, strike rate of 60% or better. Rather unfair of you I think though to refer to the 80% you ignore as "crap", I've known a few who knew how to deal with extended losing runs and made profits from value betting in that area. Each to his own. This is merely an academic exercise for me to see what develops, because every now and again an offshoot idea leads me to more lucrative areas/methods. Still, we both had a very profitable correct score return in midweek, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 (edited) Tonights Championship Edited January 28, 2020 by Valiant Thor had fridays game Cardiff v Reading instead of WBA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Tonights Championship When I processed Championship games since Jan 1st., they performed just as poorly for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 11 minutes ago, Data said: When I processed Championship games since Jan 1st., they performed just as poorly for me. poor to say the least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 See what this weekend throws up in the prem Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 . . . and my take on the weekend's Premier fixtures 1.2.20 12:30 Leicester Chelsea 2~1 1.2.20 15:00 Bournemouth Aston Villa 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Crystal Palace Sheffield United 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Liverpool Southampton 2~1 1.2.20 15:00 Newcastle Norwich 1~0 1.2.20 15:00 Watford Everton 0~2 1.2.20 15:00 West Ham Brighton 2~1 1.2.20 17:30 Man United Wolves 2~1 2.2.20 14:00 Burnley Arsenal 2~1 2.2.20 16:30 Tottenham Manchester City 1~2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 1, 2020 Author Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just for curiosity value, the other English divisions ... £10 correct score result on each!?! £550 total stake, absolute madness. 1.2.20 12:30 Leicester Chelsea 2~1 1.2.20 15:00 Bournemouth Aston Villa 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Crystal Palace Sheffield United 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Liverpool Southampton 2~1 1.2.20 15:00 Newcastle Norwich 1~0 1.2.20 15:00 Watford Everton 0~2 1.2.20 15:00 West Ham Brighton 2~1 1.2.20 17:30 Manchester United Wolverhampton Wanderers 2~1 2.2.20 14:00 Burnley Arsenal 2~1 2.2.20 16:30 Tottenham Manchester City 1~2 1.2.20 12:30 Hull Brentford 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Birmingham Nottingham 1~2 1.2.20 15:00 Charlton Barnsley 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Fulham Huddersfield 2~0 1.2.20 15:00 Leeds Wigan 2~0 1.2.20 15:00 Middlesbrough Blackburn 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Preston Swansea 1~2 1.2.20 15:00 Q.P.R. Bristol City 1~2 1.2.20 15:00 Sheffield Wednesday Millwall 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 West Bromwich Luton 2~1 1.2.20 15:00 Accrington Stanley AFC Wimbledon 1~2 1.2.20 15:00 Bolton Tranmere 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Bristol Rovers Coventry 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Fleetwood Town Doncaster 1~0 1.2.20 15:00 Ipswich Peterborough 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Milton Keynes Wycombe 0~0 1.2.20 15:00 Oxford Blackpool 2~0 1.2.20 15:00 Portsmouth Sunderland 2~0 1.2.20 15:00 Rochdale Shrewsbury 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Rotherham Burton 1~0 1.2.20 15:00 Southend Lincoln 0~3 1.2.20 15:00 Cambridge Colchester 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Cheltenham Morecambe 2~0 1.2.20 15:00 Crawley Town Scnuthorpe 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Grimsby Forest Green 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Macclesfield Northampton 1~0 1.2.20 15:00 Mansfield Carlisle 1~2 1.2.20 15:00 Oldham Bradford 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Plymouth Newport 1~0 1.2.20 15:00 Port Vale Salford City 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Stevenage Leyton 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Swindon Exeter 2~1 1.2.20 15:00 Walsall Crewe 1~2 1.2.20 15:00 Fylde Boreham Wood 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Aldershot Harrogate Town 1~2 1.2.20 15:00 Barnet Hartlepool 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Barrow Torquay 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Eastleigh Woking 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Ebbsfleet United Sutton UTD 2~0 1.2.20 15:00 Halifax Bromley 1~1 1.2.20 15:00 Solihull Maidenhead United 2~2 1.2.20 15:00 Stockport Dover Athletic 0~1 1.2.20 15:00 Wrexham Dagenham & Redbridge 1~0 1.2.20 15:00 Yeovil Chorley 1~0 1.2.20 17:20 Notts County Chesterfield 2~1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 3, 2020 Author Share Posted February 3, 2020 On 2/1/2020 at 1:03 PM, Data said: Just for curiosity value, the other English divisions ... £10 correct score result on each!?! £550 total stake, absolute madness. £550 staked returned £545. 7 winning correct scores from the 55 selections, with B365 closing odds between 9.00 & 6.00. ALMOST breaking even in such a high mark-up area is good going I reckon. The Conference (sorry! National League) was the difference between profit & loss, showing a complete blank return from the 12 games. I've said before that the Championship provided poor results using this technique, but that loss pales into insignificance when compared to the National League where the last 3 fixture days have yielded 35 straight failures. This season's returns league by league (since 1st January) Premier League, 50 bets, 8 winners, +0.28 returned per each 1 point bet Championship, 51, 4, -0.46 for each 1 point bet League One, 56, 8, +0.14 per bet League Two, 72, 13, +0.25 per bet National League, 59, 3, -0.65 per bet ALL: 288 bets, 22 points loss ALL (without National League): 229 bets, 16.5 points profit. I'm inclined to keep this going for a while yet, but I'll not bother with the lowest league! only1woz, Valiant Thor, vikki37 and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted February 7, 2020 Author Share Posted February 7, 2020 Although this idea appears to have shown a profit since January 1st (if we exclude the National League) much of the testing had been done incognito with nothing proved up front, which is not an ethical way to proceed. In light of that I'll start a new thread, Correct Scores (second shift), where I'll publish all the predictions beforehand and take it through to the season end. So, I'm drawing a line under this particular thread . . . here's the line . . . ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Torque and vikki37 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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