Road to the Cheltenham Foxhunters

[Darran]

I was reading the Lydia Hislop Road To Cheltenham article that she writes every week which is on the RacingTV website and it got me thinking that she will never write about the Foxhunters. So I thought it was worth doing one myself to keep an update on what horses are likely to run and also who has and hasn't qualified for the race in the build up to the big one in March. Obviously should there be any bets along the way then they will go up as well.

So let's start with the horses that have already run and of those Top Wood is the most prominent in the betting. Having finished 2nd to Pacha Du Polder in 2018 and then 3rd to Hazel Hill last season he is surely going to be heading back to Cheltenham in March. He landed the Aintree version in April and he is surely going to have a leading chance again this season despite being a 13yo. He reappeared in a handicap at Ascot last month when finishing a cracking 2nd to Militarian off 139. That was a great first run of the season and he has gone up a couple of pounds in the handicap on the back of it. He is a best of 16s at the moment and although I don't want to take it right now he could make e/w appeal at those sort of odds closer the time. In the same race at Ascot Minella Rocco was a well beaten 8th. His trainer has suggested he will be going hunter chasing, but he looks out of love with the game and I would want 20/1 for him to even qualify for Cheltenham at this stage let alone win it.

Black Hercules is also a 16/1 chance and Patrick Mullins is now the owner. He rode him in a point-to-point at Boulta last month and he finished a neck 2nd to Arctic Skipper. That one had the benefit of already having had a run so it was a decent enough effort given he hadn't run since January 2017. He doesn't appeal at this stage and would have to prove his stamina over this sort of trip, but he is one to keep an eye on as he is likely to improve for that run. Finishing 2nd has also meant it doesn't count towards qualification for the race. 

Ucello Conti has been out already, but it was only a novice rider race he ran in on Sunday so this might not be the aim for him. He wasn't given the best of rides in my view last season when 5th and although he pulled up at Aintree and Punchestown he did win at Fairyhouse in between. Even so as things stand it is hard to see how he can improve on his 2019 effort at this stage.

Burning Ambition has gone the handicap route like Top Wood who he was 2nd to at Aintree last year. He looks a thinker to me though and given he didn't stay in 2018 it is hard to see them sending him to Cheltenham. His run at Wexford in October wasn't great either.

We have had one hunter chase in Ireland so far and It Came To Pass landed it in November at Cork. That came after he unseated at the first in a point the week before. He ran in this race back in 2016 when falling late on when still travelling OK on what was only his 5th ever run. He hasn't been back since although he was going to be well beaten by Caid Du Berlais at Punchestown when unseating in May. He only won be a head at Cork, but the quotes from his trainer were interesting after the race. Eugene O'Sullivan said that they thought he would need the run so for him to win was a good effort. He will be seen over Christmas either in a hunter chase or a point and he added that Cheltenham was the aim. He probably needs to find some improvement, but he hasn't had much racing so there is every chance he might find some. His next run will tell us more.

The horse he beat was Wrong Direction and that was only his 4th ever start. It seemed an odd move to then run him in a handicap chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday and he got very tired when not seeing out the 3m5f trip. He ran well for a fair way though, but he was only off a mark of 120 and he would have to find around 20lbs to have a chance of winning at Cheltenham. He could do, but a hard race at such an early stage of his career doesn't seem the most sensible move to me.

Yanworth is in the betting with a couple of firms, but he looks set to go for the Cross-County race after winning at Punchestown last month.

Ravished was a cheap buy for Joe O'Shea having won a hunter chase at Wetherby in March and finishing 2nd at Hexham in April. He was really well backed by connections at Cottenham on the opening day of the season and he bolted up by 30L in a quick time. He had the useful Arthur's Secret in 3rd although he probably needed the run. Ravished ran on Sunday at Larkhil and was beaten a length by Southfield Theatre. His trainer is bullish about his chances at Cheltenham, but as much as he should add to his hunter chase win at Wetherby it is hard to see based on his two runs so far this season how he will suddenly be good enough to land a blow in this at the age of 12.

Speaking of Joe O'Shea he of course trained Road To Rome to finish 4th in this last season after running up a sequence in points and hunter chases. He suffered a very bad injury in a point in May and the talk was he might not even race again. I've seen nothing to suggest we are going to see him this season so needless to say I suggest no one even considers backing him at 16/1 as you are likely to lose your money.

Other bits and pieces I do know includes the fact that last seasons winner Hazel Hill is likely to reappear at Chaddesley Corbett on the 27th in the same race he won last year. Dave Maxwell was interviewed the other day after a win at Wetherby and he stated Bob And Co would be his Foxhunter horse and that has led him to be cut into 12/1 2nd favourite. I have to say though that his French form isn't anything that special and his stamina at the trip has to be a big question mark at the moment. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw him in the first hunter chase of the season at Taunton next month. It is fair to say though that I would want to see how he gets on over here before even considering him for Cheltenham.

The other interesting news is that Don Poli is likely to run at Wadebridge on Sunday. A high profile purchase for Darren Yates it was suggested by Dan Skelton that he would be going hunter chasing. Sensibly he is being trained by Nick Pearce who works Dan as that means he can run in points and in theory that should make it easier for him to qualify for Cheltenham. His last good run was back in February 2017 when 3rd in the Irish Gold Cup although he has only run 5 times since. He pulled up in 3 of those though and may as well of been in the Grand National last season. Sunday will tell us plenty as to how much ability he maintains and as to if Cheltenham is a feasible target or not. 

I am just going to give a quick mention to Earth Leader. He looked a very progressive horse last season when winning at Fontwell and Stratford and he made a winning reappearance on Sunday at Larkhill. I thought he looked a 130 horse last season and given he turns 7 next month there should be more to come. He isn't in the betting at the moment and he does have to prove he can stay 3m2f so it could be Aintree is the better target, but if he did prove his stamina he could be a contender for this.

So as you can see even at this early stage quite a lot has already happened and I will update this thread as the season goes on starting with Sunday if Don Poli does turn up at Wadebridge.

[Mully]

A great idea! (nap).