trading on Fh or SH for overs?

[Rey86]

the odds for over 1.5 goals on the SH are almost the same as over 2.5 on Fh

what do you guys think it is better

to bet for overs on Fh or wait till the Sh ?

 

also is there a way to find out statistically in the past what was better ?

[RandomB]

Using the free data from football data

I am basing my example on championship data 18/19.  My response will only make sense if you have some knowledge of excel.

Overs 2.5

If looking for Strike Rate use the formula       =IF(E2+F2>2,1,0)

Calculate the sum of this column (275)

Therefore strike rate = 100*275/552 = 50%.  (552 = the number of games in the season)

If looking for return, use the formula  = IF(E2+F2>2,BG2,0)

Calculate the sum of this column (535.56)

Profit of this method = 535.56 – 552

 

Over 1.5 if HT result is nil nil

Find out how many HT finish 0-0.   =IF(H2+I2=0,1,0).   Calculate the sum of this column (170)

To get the strike rate see how many of the games that were 0-0 at HT ended up over 1.5 goals

=IF(AND(N2=1,E2+F2>1),1,0).   Calculate the sum of this new column  (72)

Therefore % strikerate = 100*72/170 =42%

To calculate the return of this method using the premise that “the odds for over 1.5 goals on the SH are almost the same as over 2.5 on Fh”

=IF(AND(H2+I2=0,E2+F2>1),BG2,0).   Calculate the sum of this column (140.38)

Profit of this method = 140.38-170

regards