Rey86 Posted September 9, 2019 Share Posted September 9, 2019 the odds for over 1.5 goals on the SH are almost the same as over 2.5 on Fh what do you guys think it is better to bet for overs on Fh or wait till the Sh ? also is there a way to find out statistically in the past what was better ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomB Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 Using the free data from football data I am basing my example on championship data 18/19. My response will only make sense if you have some knowledge of excel. Overs 2.5 If looking for Strike Rate use the formula =IF(E2+F2>2,1,0) Calculate the sum of this column (275) Therefore strike rate = 100*275/552 = 50%. (552 = the number of games in the season) If looking for return, use the formula = IF(E2+F2>2,BG2,0) Calculate the sum of this column (535.56) Profit of this method = 535.56 – 552 Over 1.5 if HT result is nil nil Find out how many HT finish 0-0. =IF(H2+I2=0,1,0). Calculate the sum of this column (170) To get the strike rate see how many of the games that were 0-0 at HT ended up over 1.5 goals =IF(AND(N2=1,E2+F2>1),1,0). Calculate the sum of this new column (72) Therefore % strikerate = 100*72/170 =42% To calculate the return of this method using the premise that “the odds for over 1.5 goals on the SH are almost the same as over 2.5 on Fh” =IF(AND(H2+I2=0,E2+F2>1),BG2,0). Calculate the sum of this column (140.38) Profit of this method = 140.38-170 regards Rey86 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted September 11, 2019 Share Posted September 11, 2019 to Punters Lounge @RandomB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rey86 Posted September 11, 2019 Author Share Posted September 11, 2019 18 minutes ago, RandomB said: Using the free data from football data I am basing my example on championship data 18/19. My response will only make sense if you have some knowledge of excel. unfortuanattely i do not know excel but it is on my plans to learn how to use it thanks for the reply m8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 18 hours ago, RandomB said: To calculate the return of this method using the premise that “the odds for over 1.5 goals on the SH are almost the same as over 2.5 on Fh” How good is this premise, do you know? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RandomB Posted September 12, 2019 Share Posted September 12, 2019 No idea, it was taken from the first line of the first post on this thread. My original post was simply an effort to give Rey86 a way of testing his hypothesis. Rey86 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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