Hunter Chases - 2.30 Newton Abbot and 7.50 Cartmel

[Darran]

The Newton Abbot race revolves around if Southfield Vic is over the 2 races in 2 days a couple of weeks ago. If he is then he should be winning this. He wasn't at his best at Fontwell the day after his course and distance win, but in the end he did win very easily. I'm All Set was nearly 80L behind him here the last time so he surely won't turn that around. Mountain Cliche should be outclassed as well. Persian Snow looks a crazy price at single figures given his last 4 runs. He was poor in 3 hunter chases last season and then last month was well beaten in a 4 runner point before unseating. That leaves Herbert Park as the only possible danger to Southfield Vic. As we know he is a very hard ride and needs delivering as late as possible. He should have won at Exeter last month, but threw it away. He then beat Saffron Wells a month ago in a point. That form means he has a bit to find and he really needs the favourite to under perform if he is going to win. To me it looks a fairly solid forecast play as if they both get round it will be a big shock if they weren't 1st and 2nd.

Southfield Vic to beat Herbert Park 2pts f/c

The Cartmel race is a really intriguing one given the runners either have mental issues, stamina doubts or just aren't good enough. 

I think it is a case of if Carter McKay stays then he will be good enough to win. He didn't beat anything of note at Sedgefield, but he did it very easily in time that meant he recorded the 2nd highest Topspeed figure on the card. Given he won by 27L it suggests he still has plenty of class. He went to the sales last week, but didn't meet the reserve so is back with Chris Pimlott. He was placed in a Grade 1 hurdle last February over 2m6f in soft ground which is as far as he has gone before so stamina is a question mark, but I know connections think he will stay. Jumping fences was an issue in Ireland, but he jumped well on the whole at Sedgefield and he had back issues in Ireland which are now sorted out. There doesn't look to be a great deal of pace in the race so it might not be as much as a stamina test as it could be and given most of the others have stamina doubts as well there is every chance his class will see him home.

Greensalt needed every yard of the 2m6f trip at Kelso to win, but it wasn't a great race and I've never really thought he needs this far given his best run was a 3rd in the Aintree Foxhunters'. He handles soft ground at least so that will give him a chance and there is every chance he could go close.

Play The Ace has no chance of staying in my view and he stopped very quickly at Fontwell 2 weeks ago. I think this is likely to be another run to try and get his handicap mark down. Streets Of Milan is the favourites stablemate, but he shouldn't be good enough. Sposalizio was well beaten in this last year and basically had a walkover on Sunday to win his 12th point. He has been found wanting in Hunter Chases since he won the Monday race here a few years ago. Munsaab is a course and distance winner, but looked regressive last year and has had nearly a year off.

That leaves us with Man Of Steel the horse who has won this for the last 3 years. He however is the horse who has the mental issues as he has proven this season. He has refused twice when well beaten and pulled up on one other start. He has also won twice although they weren't the strongest heats. Cartmel is known for its course specialists though and clearly he loves running round this unique venue. In my view though he would need a personal best if Carter McKay runs his race. He is at least certain to stay and handles any ground so if he fancies it he won't be far away.

If he stays then Carter McKay should have too much class for them. Man Of Steel is the obvious danger given his course record, but at the same time it wouldn't surprise me if one day he decides he doesn't fancy doing it here either. On balance Greensalt has the better form of the two so he might be the more likely to finish 2nd. If Carter McKay does win this then the Swedish Champion Hurdle is to be his next start.

Carter McKay to beat Greensalt 1.5pts f/c

Carter McKay to beat Man Of Steel 0.5pts f/c

Southfield Vic & Carter McKay 1pt double 1.56/1 with William Hill

[yossa6133]

Tempted by Man of Steel at the prices (4/1), love course and distance form round Cartmel.