Hunter Chases - 4.45 Fakenham and 7.50 Exeter

[Darran]

The first thing I am going to say about the Fakenham race is I don't fancy Mr Mix. To me he is purely priced up on his 2nd to Hazel Hill at Warwick, but apart from the winner and Shantou Flyer that race has not worked out well at all. The win at Charing was unimpressive and not strong form. He then ran at Aintree and never got involved at all. I have just gone back and watched the video and Asockastar has been in front of him the whole race so why on earth is that one a way bigger price? Also Mr Mix was 2nd to Just Cause at Cottenham in December and Asockastar beat that horse when winning a Hunter Chase at Leicester in February. Therefore there are two pieces of form that suggest Asockastar has the beating of Mr Mix. Needless to say I am putting Asockastar up as the main bet here. He ran well at Cheltenham as well as Aintreee and the one slight concern is we have seen horses disappoint after those races so he could not run his race, but lets be fair that is more than factored into the price.

I would personally have Mr Mix as 3rd in the betting and I would make Unioniste favourite. The Bangor run when he was just denied by Optimised was obviously boosted when that one was 2nd at Cheltenham last week. The main concern with him is that he might well get outpaced round here on quick ground. There are showers forecast which will help his chances, but you have to say he is over priced as well based on the Bangor run.

I didn't think there was a great deal of promise in Play The Ace's run at Perth a couple of weeks ago and I have never really seen him as a 3miler. Having said that he might come on for that Perth run, but I find it hard to want to fancy him on the back of it.

I wouldn't rule out Steeles Terrace either. Granted on the face of it the fact he has only won a weak 3 runner Mixed Open at Higham this season wouldn't give him a chance in this, but he has come up against some good pointers this season having been beaten by Broken Eagle and Caryto Des Brosses and we all know how good he is after last week. He was also 2nd to him at Stratford last year which came off the back of winning at Fontwell. He does need to step up, but I wouldn't rule that out.

So Asockastar has to be the main bet given his form does not make him a 15/2 chance at all. That is stand out by some way but even the shorter prices are still decent value. I know putting up 3 horses in a 5 runner race seems extreme, but seems as I want to be against the 11/10 fav that means there is big value to be had. I am worried about the sharp track for Unioniste, but that is factored into the current price so I want him covered. It is interesting that Steeles Terrace has been nibbled tonight and at 9/1 I am covering him as well.

Asockastar 2pts @ 15/2 with William Hill

Unioniste 1pt @ 7/2 with BetVictor

Steeles Terrace 0.5pts e/w @ 9/1 with Bet365

I might be wrong about the Exeter race, but I am not sure In Arrears should be as short as she is. Yes she was impressive here in March, but that was a poor race and she was found out at Ascot when she was way too keen. Granted that was a better race than this and she might well win, but I don't think she has as much in hand as the betting suggests. Emperor Renard was around 16L behind In Arrears when 6th on his only start this season at Bishops Court. He has clearly had his issues as he has only run 5 times since finishing 4th in the point to point bumper here in 2016. What caught my eye was the fact he was backed from 4/1 into 6/4F for that race at Bishops Court so clearly connections were expecting better. The fact he has been off since suggests all might not have been right that day and it would not surprise me if he ran much better in this. 

Ballyvodock has a lot of letters in his form from when he was trained in Ireland, but in his 3 runs over here you can certainly give him a chance in this. He won on his first start at Kilworthy when he had Awesome Tunes 3L behind in 3rd. In Arrears beat the same horse 2L in that Bishops Court race. He was then 2nd to Sixteen Letters and he ran really well at Cheltenham last week. He was well beaten over Easter, but that came over 3m4f and he likely just didn't stay.

Yes I would make In Arrears favourite and she might well win, but given Emperor Renard was well backed to beat her and on a line through Awesome Tunes Ballyvodock is pretty much level with her then I think they are both over priced here to beat her.

Emperor Renard 0.75pts @ 3/1 with Bet365 and most others

Ballyvodock 0.75pts @ 9/1 with William Hill

[Darran]

So we are down to just the 3 runners at Fakenham with Steeles Terrace and Play The Ace both coming out this morning. The two bets still stand though as I would make Mr Mix the outsider of the 3 now not the 5/4F which he currently is. Therefore the 2/1 about Unioniste and 5/2 about Asockastar are still value.