Cheltenham Hunter Chase night & Punchestown Champion Hunters Chase

[Darran]

There are quite a few bets in this preview, but I am hoping that we can make a profit or as small a loss as possible on each race which is how I am attacking the card. Unusually we have 3 long odds on shots on the card. It is hard to see any of them being beaten so I have done f/c in those races. I will also look to add any betting without bets tomorrow when those get priced up. If its a total blank then this could be a disaster, but hopefully that won't be the case!

 

5.05

Gustave Mahler - This looks a shrewd bit of placing from Alistair Ralph as this race is for horses who have not won a chase apart from a Hunter Chase. He started his life in points and landed the Aintree point to point bumper back in 2016. He has won 3 times over hurdles and was then sent novice chasing last summer. He ran some solid races in defeat and recorded some good RPR's. He was then beaten in a handicap by Sumkindofking at Ludlow on his last start in October. He wouldn't want the ground soft so a lot of rain would concern, but good to soft will be fine and everything else is in his favour.

 

Red Inca - Very lucky to win at Paxford on Easter Monday as he was the only horse to complete the course. He pulled up in this in 2017 and was 17th of 19 in the last race on the card last year. Hard to see him improving on those two efforts.

 

Saffron Wells - Had some useful form for Colin Tizzard and ran his last race for him on Boxing Day 2017. He reappeared for new connections at Charlton Horethorne in March and ran well to finish 2nd to a solid enough yardstick. He was then a 2L 3rd followed by an unseat and then on Saturday he finished a close 2nd to Herbert Park which was a really good effort. Darren Edwards gets on him for the first time which is a good jockey change. He has won over 2m7f over hurdles, but I get the feeling he hasn't quite been seeing out the trip in points so a drop down to 2m here should be up his street. Certainly has place claims.

 

Sam Cavallaro - Has a really good record in this race having won it in 2015 and 2016, finished 2nd in 2017 and then 3rd to Monsieur Gibraltar last year. This will have no doubt been his target again as he hasn't shown a great deal so far having been well beaten in 2 Hunter Chases at Ludlow and then he won a 3 runner race at Chaddesley Corbett on Easter Saturday. He was ridden much handier last year after dropping himself out the year before, but he still found himself outpaced at a crucial stage. It might be asking a little too much for him to win this at the age of 13, but I can certainly see him hitting the frame. 

 

The Winningtipster - Struggling to even complete although was a 94L 3rd to Master Baker at Taunton. Should be outclassed.

 

Western Dream - Has way more letters in his form than numbers and has no chance.

 

Willem - Has managed to win a point in the last 3 years although the one this year came in a 3 runner race which he ended up winning by 30L although the odds on favourite through in a moody performance. Was a well beaten 6th in this in 2017 and although he has a better chance than most I still find it hard to see him winning.

 

Dissertation - Was 14L behind Sam Cavallaro at Ludlow and as much as 2m will probably suit her more than 2m4f she shouldn't really be troubling the judge.

 

Summary - Most of these seem to be running in this to give their jockey's a spin round Cheltenham so there are very few in with a serious chance of winning. It really does look a fantastic bit of placing from his trainer and Gustave Mahler really ought to be winning this fairly comfortably as there isn't another 130 horse in the race. I like the jockey change on Saffron Wells and he has some decent place form in points this year as well as being useful under rules before. Duel winner Sam Cavallaro will no doubt give it a good go at trying to win this for the 3rd time.

 

Gustave Mahler to beat Saffron Wells 1.5pts f/c

Gustave Mahler to beat Sam Cavallaro 0.5pts f/c

 

5.40

Ballycahane - Hasn't always jumped well and seems to get himself outpaced in his races. Was a length 2nd to Coco Live at Larkhill in March when not quite getting there and he might have a chance of reversing that form over this longer trip. I can certainly see him staying on past beaten horses.

 

Black Jewel - Lost his weight cloth at Larkhill when he was disqualified in March (bizarrely his jockey picked it up and tried to weigh in with it!) and his winning form is nothing special. Has work to do with Ballycahane through Call Me Vic as well.

 

Captain McGinley - 2nd to Imogens Thunder at Chipley Park in the quickest time of the day and Virak won on that card. Won at Monmouth last time from a useful enough yardstick and he looks to be improving, certainly looks better than he was when he was last seen under rules.

 

Chapelier - 4/4 in East Anglia this term so is clearly progressing nicely, but that isn't exactly the strongest area in the country so there isn't much depth to his form although beating Postbridge was a decent effort last time. That race was over 2m4f and the extra trip here is a slight concern. His trainer is pretty shrewd though and he must think he has a chance for him to send him here.

 

Coco Live - Bit disappointing he didn't win at Taunton because that wasn't a strong race at all and the winner has been well beaten since. Had won his last 4 prior to that and is clearly progressing. I thought his jockey showed his inexperience at Taunton and that would be a concern round here for me.

 

Doctor's Differ - Pulled up on his seasonal return and has won two weak 4 runner races since then so there is little depth to his form.

 

Laser Beam - 3/3 since coming over here but the last two in 3 runner races and the maiden he won was weak. Chapelier looks to be the better chance from the stable in my view.

 

Lightnightpass - Maiden win was in a much quicker time than the other division and then comfortably won a weak Restricted at Charing. He was 2nd the next time to Timmie Roe who has won 7/7 this season. What was interesting was the winning time which was 6 seconds quicker than Salvatore's on the same card. He then won a match at 1/8 at Godstone last month. Has the assistance of Gina and isn't out of this.

 

Lords Park Star - Could hardly have found a weaker Intermediate to win last month although the 4th at Leicester in Hunter Chase wasn't completely hopeless. Even so he would be a surprise winner.

 

Max O - Beaten 29L by Salvatore in January and hard to see him reversing that form let alone win this.

 

Pancrace - Some useful form in points this season including a neck 2nd to Hunter Chase winner In Arrears in January and then won his Restricted next time out. Pulled up in the race Black Jewel won before being disqualified and then back to form when a 5L 3rd to Captain McGinley at Monmouth last time. That leaves him with a bit of work to do though.

 

Salvatore - Recorded the quickest time of the day when winning on his seasonal return at Thorpe Lodge in an impressive performance. Went onto win his next two in easy enough style and was then 3rd in a Mixed Open at Maisemore. Marcle Ridge who runs in the next race was 2nd. It has to be said he was a bit disappointing though and the performance was certainly no better than Ballycahane's who also won on the card carrying 12st10lbs. He is clearly decent, but I'm not sure he has repeated that seasonal return back in January.

 

Sixteen Letters - Improved as the season has gone on. Looked in the need of the run first time out and then just failed to get up in time next time out. Won last month at Cherrybrook when running out an easy winner. Might not quite be good enough, but a bold showing would not surprise.

 

Tricky Silence - Didn't show a great deal for his current trainer in 2016/17 and then under rules for Stuart Edmonds, but this season he has really progressed. It was a solid reappearance win at Cottenham in December before showing a nice turn of foot to win at Horseheath. It was the Edgecote win last time that was particularly impressive as he won a Mixed Open in good style and he had Hunter Chase winner Pass The Hat in behind in 3rd. The one concern I have is ground on the soft side of good as his wins so far have been on quickish ground, but otherwise he looks to have a leading chance.

 

What A Joke - Has plenty to find with most of these.

 

Summary - This looks the hardest race on the card and my shortlist contains Ballycahane, Captain McGinley, Chaplier, Lightnightpass, Salvatore, Sixteen Letters and Tricky Silence. Before the prices came out I was expecting Ballycahane to be a double figure price and would have put him up, but I was surprised to see he was put in favourite so I will pass. Salvatore was put in a silly price at double figures, but he is the right sort of price now. Chaplier looks a little on the short side so I will pass on him as well. I am happy to take the two at double figures Lightnightpass and Sixteen Letters as they both look a big price to me. Tricky Silence is the main bet of the shorter prices and I will also cover Captain McGinley.

 

Tricky Silence 1.5pts @ 7/1 with Bet365 and most others

Lightnightpass 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365

Captain McGinley 1pt @ 13/2 with BetVictor

Sixteen Letters 0.25pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365

 

6.15

Alfstar - Can throw in some shockers, but has some very strong form at his best. The 3rd at Bangor was a good effort in a hot race and after pulling up on seasonal return behind Risk A Fine he has run two good races. First off he won a Ladies Open at Howick and then was a good 2nd giving 4lbs to Garde Ville at Bangor. In the context of this race that is strong form. The slight concern is the ground as I think he needs cut, but if there is enough juice i the ground he has a leading chance.

 

Big Georgie - Didn't run too badly at Taunton and this test should suit much better and he seems in decent form this season. Does have a bit to find with Alfstar based on his run behind Garde Ville last April.

 

Damut I'm Out - Rated 100 over hurdles but has yet to win under rules. Not sure his 2 point wins this season prove he has what it needs to win this and based on winning times at Maisemore he needs to find more to beat Marcle Ridge.

 

Kit Barry - Was 3rd in this race last year and didn't run that badly at Exeter last time. Overall though he is pretty exposed and you would be a bit disappointed if he was good enough to go two places better this time around.

 

Marcel Ridge - Progressing nicely having won his maiden and Restricted last year before winning two more this season. Beat a big field on his seasonal return at Larkhill and then finished alone at Chaddesley Corbett. His last start saw him just failing to get back up and beat solid yardstick Templebraden at Maisemore. He is the one horse in the race that is progressive. A slight concern would be his jumping as he wasn't great at Maisemore and he front runs so seeing out the trip could be an issue, but he seems to have plenty of fight in him. Had the option of the Intermediate Final and I'm not surprised they have gone down this route.

 

Moscow Prices - Thrown in a couple of stinkers this season, but won a couple and was 2nd to a decent horse at Chaddesley Corbett last time. Wouldn't be out of this although his jockey has only had a couple of rides under rules so far.

 

Order In Court - Basically had a walkover last time over Easter and only a maiden and restricted winner so far so has bit to find to win this.

 

Summary - Looks a 3 horse race to me with the winner coming from Marcle Ridge, Alfstar and Moscow Prices. Marcle Ridge has to be the main selection given I am not sure the ground is going to be soft enough for Alfstar. I do want him onside though as he has the best form in the race. At the prices we can have a small cover bet on Moscow Prices as well.

 

Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 5/2 with William Hill and BetVictor

Alfstar 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill and BetVictor

Moscow Prices 0.5pts @ 11/2 with Bet365 and most others

 

6.50 

Hazel Hill - Doesn't really need me to tell you what he has done and been given a nice break since storming clear to win the Foxhunter in March. The form looks strong given Top Wood won at Aintree, Road To Rome ran well there and Ucello Conti won at Fairyhouse. This is a good race, but if he is in peak form it is hard to see how he gets beat.

 

Master Baker - I am really surprised that they chose this race over the first race. He'd have had a real chance in that, but it is hard to see how he can win this. He's a good horse, but I'm not sure he wants to go this far and he bled after being put under severe pressure by Risk A Fine. If he stays I am sure he will run well, but I can't back him.

 

Virak - Now Ben might have bled, but I thought it was a serious effort to beat him at Ludlow last time. That made 5 on the bounce for the season and he recovered well from a bad mistake at Ascot to beat Queen Olivia the time before. Looks the most likely to give Hazel Hill something to worry about.

 

Caryto Des Brosses - I have been waiting for him to run a Hunter Chase all season and when he does he gets put into one of the biggest races of the season! He's really progressive and I thought he looked really good when winning at Stratford in June. He had a little hold up but came back at Garthorpe when he wasn't fully fit and he won well before hacking up a 3 runner race at Fakenham last month. As much as I like him I doubt he will be good enough to win this. The trip will be a slight concern as well although the trainer thinks he will get it. 

 

Kelvingrove - 3 runs in points and hunter chases this season and none of the form would be good enough to win this.

 

Gran Paradiso - Seems an odd race to run him in as he won't be good enough and he could have run at Hexham on Saturday or he would have had more of a chance in the 4 mile race on this card.

 

Path To Freedom - I really thought they would go to Hexham with him on Friday once they saw how hot this race was. He was unlucky to be beaten at Catterick as Diplomate Sivola caught him right on on the line. He has won two points since although may have been slightly fortunate to win last time as Young Hurricane idled once he hit the front. Every chance he will make the running with Caryto Des Brosses and help set it up for Hazel Hill I would imagine.

 

Summary - As long as he is in the same sort of form as he was here in March I don't see how Hazel Hill doesn't win this. There are some useful horses against him, but none that would have got close to him in March. Virak looks the most likely to finish 2nd and I will certainly be including Caryto Des Brosses into betting without bets to give him a chance to prove he is as good as I think he might be.

 

Hazel Hill to beat Virak 1.5pts f/c

Hazel Hill to beat Caryto Des Brosses 0.5pts f/c

 

7.20

Martha's Benefit - Beat a 15yo in a match on her only run so far this season on Easter Saturday. Won a couple of handicaps last summer off marks of 95. Been well beaten in the last two running's of this though and I don't think she stays this far.

 

Tb Broke Her - Won one of 7 races this season which came on her penultimate start when beating Patricktom Boru by 18L. Was beaten at 4/6 at Andoversford a week later. Didn't show a great deal at Ludlow on her on Hunter Chase start so far this season and looks to have a bit to find.

 

Theatre Territory - I didn't think she was that impressive at Exeter and she looks hard work, but she has been running in much better races than this and she really ought to win although can't say she is exactly one I would want to be backing at short odds.

 

Absainte - Looked quite progressive earlier in the season winning her first 3 races on the bounce and ran some good times in the process. Bit disappointing at Witton Castle on Easter Sunday when losing at 4/7, but she was dismounted after the finish so I suspect something didn't feel quite right. Still whatever it was she is clearly over and although strictly speaking on form she has to find something she might be capable of finishing 2nd.

 

Kalabaloo - Done well this season winning her first 3 before being beaten by Dabinett Moon last month. Nothing wrong with that in the context of this contest and apart from the favourite she has the best form in my opinion. Ran well to finish 3rd in the Intermediate Final last year and she looks the most likely to finish 2nd.

 

Kazuri Kate - Pulled up on seasonal debut behind Salvatore and then won last month although it was a pretty weak Ladies Open. Has got bits and pieces of form, but hard to see her taking this on her rules debut.

 

Summary - She is about 1/3 and I can't say I would be wanting to taking those odds, but Theatre Territory is by far the most likely winner. I don't think Martha's Benefit stays this far and to me Kalabaloo is the most likely to finish 2nd to her. I will also have a small bet on Absainte to finish 2nd as well as she looks like she is improving and might be better than her rating.

 

Theatre Territory to beat Kalabaloo 1.5pts f/c

Theatre Territory to beat Absainte 0.5pts f/c

 

7.50

Mendip Express - Been handicapping this season and managed to win one at Sandown in December off 124. Wasn't so good the next time and I guess he has been saved for this. Unproven over this far, but you get the impression he will stay especially in a race like this.

 

Sam Red - Handicap win for Dan Skelton here in October was only off a mark of 118 and he hasn't got close to running to that form since. He ran OK at Newbury when 4th to Master Baker on the 2nd of his 3 Hunter Chase runs, but it was a poor effort at Exeter and he looks one to leave alone to me.

 

Wonderful Charm - The key to his chances will be how much water they have put on and if any rain falls because he is just a better horse on good ground. This looks his race though as I really do think he will stay 4m at this level. Ignore his Aintree run where the ground went against him and he had no chance in that anyway. When disappointed last season in the big races again it was on soft ground and the 3rd at Stratford was a good effort on over-watered ground. Big chance for me.

 

Jack Snipe - 3/3 in points this season and although they weren't the strongest races in the world he did well to win them and he looks like he has needed stiffer tests of stamina in all 3. His win in a handicap last summer was off 99 though and unless he improves massively for 4m it is hard to see him being good enough. I will add though that he has a high rating in the pointing form book.

 

Master Sunrise - I thought he might be capable of showing something at Exeter last time, but he put in a very moody effort and I can't have him here.

 

Optimised - Went off a 9/4 shot in the Intermediate Final last year and travelled well, but stopped fairly quickly. Watching that you would think there was no chance of him staying this far, but I suspect there must have been an issue that night. He returned to finish a well beaten 7th behind Risk A Fine, but then his season has taken off. He has won 3 on the bounce including a hunter chase at Bangor last time. That day he was headed but stayed on really powerfully to beat Unioniste right on the line. His running style this season suggests 4m shouldn't be an issue and he is clearly progressing.

 

Premier Portrait - Won a couple of Hunter Chases, but he looks to be going backwards and hard to see him playing a part here.

 

After Aspen - Hard to give him any chance based on his pointing runs this season.

 

Captain Von Trappe - On the basis of his first pointing win this season he would have a chance in this, but has run poorly in both runs since including in the Lady Dudley Cup just 13 days ago.

 

Changeofluck - God knows why he ran over 2m4f at Leicester in February as all he does is stay. Was 3rd behind Haymount at Kingston Blount, but he got outpaced before running on with a mistake 3 out hindering his progress. I can't see him winning, but it just wouldn't surprise me if he hit the frame at huge odds given we know he stays.

 

Earthmoves - Hard to see him staying even if he was good enough which he doesn't look like being.

 

Haymount - Think he is favourite mainly based on the fact he was 2nd in the National Hunt Chase a couple of years ago. He has won all 3 points but he has hardly been impressive and the comment in the form book for his win last time said another laboured success. He was given Vasco Du Mee and Changeofluck 8lbs, but you would have like to have seen him make easier work of it. He ran no race in the Foxhunter as well so that would worry me. He could need a Gina special to win this.

 

Knockaderry Flyer - God knows how he won at this meeting 2 years ago and I can't have him.

 

Sentimentaljourney - No chance.

 

Southfield Theatre - Has only been beaten once in 4 points this season and that was by Monsieur Gibraltar who would certainly have had too much pace for him. Ran as well as could have been expected when 9th in the Foxhunter and he shouldn't have any issue with the trip. Likely to make a bold bid.

 

Spainish Arch - No idea where the 2nd at Sandown came from because the rest of the form this season is terrible.

 

Teeton Kato - Has one good piece of form this season and that was the only other time Jack Andrews has ridden him as he was 3rd just behind Dance Of Time and Petrou at Thorpe Lodge. The rest of his form leaves him with a bit to find and the trip is an unknown.

 

Twist On Ginge - Hard to see him playing much of a part.

 

Vasco Du Mee - Won this race 3 years ago and seems to be coming back to some sort of form. Not much of a race he won last time although the 2nd to Haymount is decent. Obviously we know he handles course and distance so another bold showing wouldn't surprise.

 

Vinctore - No chance

 

Summary - I might be wrong, but I think Haymount is worth taking on here. I like Wonderful Charm as long as the ground hasn't got too much cut in it. I think 4m round here will suit him well. Optimised is the progressive horse in the field and I want him onside. I considered Mendip Express, but I think Southfield Theatre might prefer the trip more so will cover him as well. Of the big prices Changeofluck might be the one who can outrun his odds. 

 

Wonderful Charm 2pts @ 9/2 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Optimised 1pt @ 5/1 with BetVictor

Southfield Theatre 0.5pts @ 13/2 with Bet365 and most others

 

8.20

Risk A Fine - Put in one of the best performances of the season when he won at Stratford last month. He saw off Arthur's Secret out in front and then put Master Baker under so much pressure that he bled. It really was a top effort and backed up his Warwick performance and what I saw him do at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. There is no real disgrace finishing 2nd to Monsieur Gibraltar although I do think he under performed that day. The only thing that could get him beat is if he doesn't handle the track as he is yet to run around here, but he has the right man on top and I can see him burning them all off from the front.

 

Crazy Jack - Ran well in this race last year to finish 4th and then was well handicapped to win the handicap hunter chase at Stratford. Not shown a great deal this season although didn't run too badly two starts back. Ran no sort of race at Aintree last time.

 

Delegate - Just denied by Hidden Charmer at Ludlow, but then thrashed by Monsieur Gibraltar at Southwell and has no chance with Risk A Fine on that running. If they plan on front running with him again then that won't help him either as Risk A Fine will be going too quick for him.

 

Hidden Charmer - Got a good ride at Ludlow and although he was beaten at 4/5 over Easter the 3m trip wouldn't have helped. The problem is if they front run with him then he will also struggle to keep up with Risk A Fine.

 

Bishops Road - Surely he should be running in the 4m race. His last win came in the Grand National Trial in 2016 in heavy ground and ran OK up to a point in the same race this year when 6th. Jumping isn't always the best and surely he is going to get outpaced over this trip especially with the likely pace going to be set.

 

Champagne West - 8/1 at the time of writing, but on the form he is shown so far this season you could add a 1 at least in front of that. Granted he showed up for a fair way at Aintree, but he was pulled up in the end and hard to see him winning this.

 

Knockraha Prince - No chance.

 

Lawsons Thorns - No chance.

 

Petrou - Took 5 races to win a point this season, but was 2nd to Hazel Hill in one of them at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas. On that run he does have a bit to find with Risk A Fine. The form of the last two runs is solid and the fast pace will suit him as he will be held up and will be the one finishing off his race well. The question is if Risk A Fine will be too far ahead for him to catch up.

 

Village Vic - He finished his race off very weakly at Newbury on his first start for nearly a year. He obviously has some very good form around here and he could come on for that Newbury run, but Risk A Fine thrashed the winner of that race last time and it has been a long time since he has shown any worthwhile form albeit in better races than this. If Maxwell tries to serve it up to Risk A Fine then he is only going to hinder his own chances in my view.

 

Summary - I really do think Risk A Fine will lead these a merry dance and although there are other possible front runners in the race, if he repeats what he did at Stratford they wont be able to live with him. The only slight concern is he hasn't run at the track before, but apart from that it looks the ideal race for him. Given Petrou's likely to come off the pace I think he will be the main danger and I will save on him.

 

Risk A Fine 3.5pts @ 11/8 with William Hill

Petrou 0.5pts @ 4/1 with Bet365

[blueboy199]

Good effort, mate