Hunter Chase - 4.40 Hexham

[Darran]

Let's start at Wincanton which ended up being quite an interesting race to watch despite their being just the 3 winners. Quite why Natalie decided to stick to the left of Woodfleet I don't know and it nearly caused him to come to grief down the back for the final time. Finally down the home straight she moved to the inside and he stayed on well to score from Keltus who ran OK to finish 2nd. I don't think the form is worth much and its a shame for the winner that the Hunter Chase in May at Wincanton has disappeared this season. Still there might be another weak contest for him.

Onto Stratford and I first of all let me deal with Abi Banks. I know she is rubbish and I do usually write in my previews when Arthur's Secret runs that she isn't very good, although I didn't yesterday. I have backed the horse in every Hunter Chase it has run in because I know how good a horse he is and the fact he isn't a hard ride so for me all she usually has to do is make sure she stays on top and the horse does the rest as he did at Ludlow on both his wins. In my view any jockey could have been on him today and the horse wouldn't have won. It wasn't like the horse was beaten in a tight finish where it would have made a difference. Basically as far as I am concerned Risk A Fine did to Arthur's Secret what I thought Arthur's Secret would do to Risk A Fine. Connections clearly fancied the winner because he was backed before drifting back out and James wanted to be positive from the start so they clearly thought they could get the favourite beat and they were spot on. Risk A Fine was going too fast and in my view broke Arthur's Secret's heart. Now he is better than this for sure and there are more races to be won with him, but he bumped into one better today.

In my view Risk A Fine put in one of the best performances of the season so far. To keep that gallop up the whole way and still have plenty left at the end was really impressive. I am annoyed because I was such a big fan of the horse when I saw him win at Chaddesley Corbett over Christmas and thought he would be winning Hunter Chases after that. He clearly performed below par when Monsieur Gibraltar beat him at Wincanton because for me in this form he is a better horse than that one. I'm annoyed I didn't keep my faith in him and at least put him up as a saver, but I was so sure he couldn't beat Arthur's Secret that I didn't. I've been proven right but this time haven't got the cash to show for it as I got it wrong on the day. Master Baker bled from the nose and he did travel well into the race, but I think he might have bled because of the pressure Risk A Fine was putting on him. My guess is we might see him next at Cheltenham for a race over just short of 2m5f or if they want to keep him to a flatter track then Southwell or Fontwell look likely.

We have an odds on favourite for the Hexham race on Monday with Sausalito Sunrise bidding to go one better than he did when 2nd at Chepstow on his Hunter Chase debut. He should come on for that, but I am not sure the form is the strongest and as much as he obviously was the best of these on his old form, I think there could be value in taking him on.

I got Ravished wrong at Wetherby last time as I thought he would struggle to beat Always On The Run, but he beat him fair and square and I thought it was a really good effort. He had clearly improved massively from his first two starts of the season to win his 3rd by 30L and he backed that effort up with the Wetherby win. That is the best recent form in the race for me and he is the value in the race.

Cave Hunter has won 3 Hunter Chases back in 2015 and 2016 and is a good horse on his day. He hasn't been seen under rules though since unseating at the 1st and at the 2nd in two Hunter Chases in 2017. I don't think he is as good as he used to be though and his win last time was in a 3 runner race that took little winning and was run in a very slow time. Damiens Dilemma also won on that same Friars Haugh card and clocked a time 21 seconds quicker. He dead heated with a horse who has been in good form this season so the form is fair and it was his first run of the season. The problem is we know he is at most a mid 90's horse and that shouldn't be good enough to win this. 

I opposed Gran Paradiso at Musselburgh because I thought he would get outpaced round there given the front running Shimla Dawn and he was a long way back before his jockey realised he had to get closer. Just as he was reaching the leaders he then unseated his jockey. It's hard to know how he would have got on but that was a pretty big mid-race move and the winner bolted up so I just wondered if that move might have told late on. He has won a weak 3 runner race since. He will stay this trip as he has proven this season and he wouldn't be without a chance here.

Sausalito Sunrise might win this, but I think he is worth taking on as I'm not sure it was the strongest race in the world at Chepstow and I preferred the win of Ravished at Wetherby as a form line so he has to be the selection. I was considering putting Gran Paradiso up as a saver given this stamina test should suit better than the Musselburgh race, but I don't think his form is as good as Ravished and with only 7 runners backing him e/w makes little appeal either so I will stick with just the one bet.

Ravished 1pt @ 11/4 with Betfair Paddy Power

[Darran]

Winners so far

Road To Rome 1.5pts @ 13/8

Road To Rome 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1

Road To Rome 3pts @ 11/10

Asockastar 1pt @ 9/4

Risk A Fine 4pts @ 8/11

Road To Rome 2pts @ 7/4

Bally River Boy 1pt e/w 3rd @ 12/1

Wonderful Charm 3pts @ 10/11

Shantou Flyer 2pts @ evs

Seefood 0.5pts @ 6/1

Shimla Dawn 1pt @ 7/2

Arthur's Secret 2pts @ 4/1

Ballotin 2.5pts @ Evs

Hazel Hill 1pt @ 6/1

Sir Jack Yeats 3pts @ 5/2

Burning Ambition 2pts @ 13/8

Arthurs Secret 3pts @ Evs (r4)

Master Baker 1.5pts @ 15/8

Optimised 1pt @ 9/4

Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8

Virak to beat Queen Olivia fc 0.5pts either £4.20 or £5.28

Top Wood 0.75pts e/w at 14/1

Hidden Charmer 2.5pts @ 9/4

Monsieur Gibraltar 3pts @ 10/11

Total staked so far I make 84.5pts. The returns are 150.31pts so I make that 65.81pts of profit so far

[Ken96]

who is there before the victory I support

[Ken96]

he finished second
Not bad

Edited April 15, 2019 by Ken96