Hunter Chases - Southwell 3.50 and Exeter 5.50

[Darran]

Where to start with the Kelso contest? We usually see at least one drama filled contest a season and this was certainly one of those. Beyond Gold was running a hell of a race when he came down at 3 out and it was a huge step up from his debut victory. He took out Hardrock Davis and as much as both seemed to be going well still I would like to think Hardrock Davis would have too much at the finish, but you couldn't be certain. Sir Lonica was a beaten horse at the time and it was a disappointing effort although it looked like he was about to be gifted the race until he was brought to a stand still allowing the winner and 2nd to catch him up. Coming to the 2nd last they were almost all in a line, but Sir Lonica unseated and although he wasn't going very quickly Longtymegone ended up winning by over 100L although that was because Costly Dream only just got himself over the last. It was a pretty brutal finish as the jockey on the winner decided to use his whip and the jockey on the 2nd should have pulled him up before the last and he got very lucky that the horse managed to scramble over the fence. They both should have been banned but only the winning jockey was. The form is obviously meaningless although the the two who came to grief at the 3rd last will fancy their chances of finding a Hunter Chase at some stage.

Only 4 runners at Southwell but an interesting battle between Monsieur Gibraltar and Stellar Notion. They both made their seasonal debuts on the same card at Larkhill and the former was just under 2 seconds quicker than the latter although he carried 13lbs more. Obviously Monsieur Gibraltar has won 3 times since including at Wincanton last time when he beat Risk A Fine under David Maxwell for the first time. Risk A Fine has boosted the form since and I can see this race being similar to that one because at Wincanton Risk A Fine front ran and Monsieur Gibraltar had too much speed for him and here Stellar Notion is likely to make the running and I think he will have too much speed for him. Granted Delegate will probably want to help with making the pace as well and as much as he ran a solid race at Ludlow last week that form for me is below what the other two have achieved this season although he will be more suited to this trip than Stellar Notion.

I can see Monsieur Gibraltar stalking the pace and then having too much speed for them down the home straight to claim another victory.

Monsieur Gibraltar 3pts @ 10/11 with William Hill, Betfair and Betfred

2 hours later we move onto Exeter and I think it looks a two horse race between Dicky Bob and Herbert Park. Dicky Bob was 2nd to Monsieur Gibraltar on his seasonal return at Larkhill which was a solid return. He was then ridden by the same novice rider the next twice when winning one before unseating at the 5th. Bryan Carver is making a name for himself this season and he took over the riding last time out when he bolted up by 25L beating Heaney who re-opposes here. The time that day was really quick and I can see him being hard to catch out in front. He won a Hunter Chase here 3 years ago beating last week's Taunton winner I'm All Set so we know he handles the track and he won't mind what the weather does.

Herbert Park won the same race Dicky Bob did last year when he just held off Master Baker. That was obviously a good effort although he disappointed at Fontwell the next time where I suspect the ground was quick enough as he was never really travelling that night. This season he has run once when he was 2nd to Virak which was obviously a good effort to start the season off with. He will be played late and will likely be the favourites final challenger.

I can't really have Glen Roe who was a surprise winner of a Hexham maiden hurdle in October having mainly struggled in Irish points. The 2nd home finally won a handicap off 110 and the 3rd has done nothing for the form so based on that I would be surprised if he was good enough to win this. Sam Red was better at Newbury when 4th than on his Hunter Chase debut when he pulled up, but on a line through Master Baker he can't beat Herbert Park. He is the one most likely to take advantage should the front two in the betting disappoint for whatever reason.

I think Dicky Bob will be hard to catch out in front and he is the main bet. At the prices though we can have a saver on Herbert Park as unless we see a repeat of Kelso I do think one of those two will win.

Dicky Bob 2.5pts @ 13/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power

Herbert Park 1pt @ 100/30 with William Hill and BetVictor

[Lisa603]

Unlucky today Darran, one of those days.

Darran, Can you remember a race some years ago where Maxwell was on a well backed fav and the horse pulled himself up when looking a certainty to win with less than 100 yards to go ?

I've been racking my brains all night and for the life of me i can't remember where it was or the names of the horses that filled the places -  i know the winner was at massive odds when looking to have no chance coming into the final stretch , and i think the fav was trained by PJ Hobbs , but i could be wrong on the trainer- and i think the winner had actually placed in the same race in years prior. 

Does that spark any memories in your mind palace?