Hunter Chase - 4.20 Warwick

[Darran]

Later than usual and a bit annoying because when I looked at the betting about 3 hours ago I had in mind what I would put up only to now see that the betting has totally changed during the morning. Risk A Fine was put in pretty short last night and then drifted out to 3/1 this morning, but has now been backed back in and is no bigger than 13/8 now. People who have been following me for most of the season will know I was really taken by this horse when I saw him win a point over Christmas and he did it well at Fakenham over a track and trip that didn't suit. In the end I had a small bet on him to win at Wincanton but Monsieur Gibraltar was too good for him in the end. I did wonder at the time if maybe I had over-rated the horse, but I am going to give him another chance here. Marinero won at Ascot a year ago in a race that I fancied Monsieur Gibraltar to win, but Harriett Tucker fell off him that day and it meant Marinero had little to do in the end to win as the rest were a poor bunch and the 2nd didn't stay. I thought Marinero ran well enough on his seasonal return at Ludlow, but he was then beaten even further by Road To Rome back there the next time which has to be a concern. I think Monsieur Gibraltar would have easily beaten Marinero at Ascot so based on that there isn't much between them, but Risk A Fine has certainly shown better form this season in my view. It is frustrating I didn't get chance to write this earlier, but given the drift I wasn't then expecting it to be smashed off the boards so that took me by surprise. Even so I am happy to back it at the price.

Brave Jaq is the only other one to consider. In both starts this season he has been less keen than he was last season and it meant he was able to see out the 2m4f at Stratford last time. I thought it was a good performance, but it was a lesser race than this and I would have been backing either of the other two to have won that contest. The other concern is Warwick is more of a stamina test than Stratford and even now he is more settled in his races I do think this trip might be far enough for him especially against classy opposition.

Risk A Fine 2pts @ 13/8 with Bet365

 

[Noodle bowl]

Another excellent tip and once again thank you 

Any early thoughts on aintree ,we are all waiting patiently for your words of wisdom