Hunter Chase - 4.00 Leicester

[Darran]

I was always going to get one badly wrong at some point and fair to say Pass The Hat made me look foolish for a 2nd time! To be fair he jumped superbly today and ran out a good winner to give Sarah Rippon her first winner under rules. I wouldn't want to go mad on the form though. Road To Riches may have needed it, but he thought about not jumping the last so he has to have a question mark over him the next time we see him. The fact Nautical Twilight was 3rd does hold the form back for me. Barrakilla was beaten a long way from home and as much as you could argue he might have needed it, it was a shocking run and a mile away from his Bangor win or Aintree 4th. Little Jon was well backed late on track, but this was much worse than his Ludlow effort. Rouge Et Blanc bled and surely it is the last time we see him on a racecourse.

Hopefully we can have better luck on Friday at Leicester. Some of the interest has been taking out of the race as Full Trottle is now a non-runner, but it is still an intriguing race. 

To a certain extent it revolves around Eastlake who I suspect is being aimed at the Aintree Foxhunter given he won the Topham in 2016 as well as finishing 3rd in 2014. He has also run in the race 3 other times although he pulled up twice and finished 13th last year. He is clearly on the downgrade as a mark of 128 tells you and I think he is going to have to be capable of running up to around that mark to win this. He has had wind surgery since his last run at Stratford in November, but he had it back in October 2017 as well and it didn't do him much good then. He must be showing something at home though and obviously Derek O'Connor is over for the ride which catches the eye, but on balance he has to be taken on. Having said that the betting will tell you all you need to know and if he gets heavily backed then it might well be worth following the money.

 

I can't have Double Ross especially over a trip this short. Argot won the race last year, but it wasn't anywhere near this strong despite the bigger field and apart from a pointing win he showed little else last season. He also has 46L to make up on Full Trottle based on their running at Ludlow in April. Numbercruncher pulled up in this last year when he ran like he needed the race and I fully expect the same here although he is a fair old horse over this trip so if he was fitter this time around I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well.

 

I thought Ballotin ran a hell of a race at Haydock as he was the only one who tried to keep with Road To Rome which he managed for a fair way, but a lack of a recent run plus his stamina gave weigh and he only finished 4th in the end after a couple of outsiders ran past him. He was clear 2nd best in the race though and it was a cracking run. The ground won't be a concern as he won on good at Wetherby in October and he handles a bit of cut should it get softer. This trip might not be his ideal one, but he won over it in France and I think there is every chance he will have too much class for these.

 

So it is Ballotin and David Maxwell for me although do be wary of a market plunge on Eastlake.

 

Ballotin 2.5pts @ evs with Bet365 and most others

Edited March 7, 2019 by Darran

[Darran]

Nice to end the week with an easy winner and it means we end up level on the week so we haven't had to dig into the healthy reserves built up in the first couple of months of the season. Ballotin outclassed his rivals and it wouldn't be a massive surprise if he turned out to be Maxwell's Aintree horse where I don't think he would be without a chance. If he doesn't go there then he should find more winning opportunities.

Double Ross stayed on past the other two to finish 2nd and as I said in the preview he had no chance of winning over this trip. It is hard to know what he actually achieved here because I think Argot paid for trying to keep pace with the winner and Numbercruncher clearly needed it. I think Numbercruncher still retains his ability and he will be of interest later in the season. I would be surprised if Eastlake was seen again as he didn't seem to be overly enjoying things when he was pulled up.

Annoyingly we have lost a Hunter Chase next week as Towcester were due to have one and Market Rasen who have taken over their meeting have decided to axe it. So we are left with Stratford on Monday and Cheltenham on Friday. I have been working on my Foxhunter preview and all being well I will stick it up over the weekend.

Edited March 8, 2019 by Darran