Hunter Chase - 4.50 Catterick

[Darran]

Another Hunter Chase and another David Maxwell odds on favourite. This time it is Diplomate Sivola who ran in a couple of Hunter Chases last year, but has since been handicapping. I thought the Ludlow 4th to Full Trottle was a decent effort on his UK debut, but the 3rd in a weak race at Sedgefield wasn't as good. That was over just under 2m4f on quickish ground and given what he has done since I think he found things happening all too quick for him even in a poor race like that. His handicap form is pretty good especially in the context of this race. In three defeats he has been beaten 1/2L twice and a short head. One of those defeats was behind Glen Rocco who has obviously done well since. He won his other handicap start off 117 at Lingfield in November stepped up to 3m and he bolted up by 12L. He then had a break until a month ago when he was a short head 2nd to Touch Kick at Taunton running off a 13lbs higher mark. I really can't imagine any of this lot being capable of doing that despite the fact he has to give weight away. The step up again in trip shouldn't be an issue and the rain that is set to fall should bring the ground into his favour as well. I don't really want to back him at the current price, but I find it hard to see him getting beat.

Wither Or Not's price has collapsed since he opened up at 12/1 and I can see why people wanted to get on at the lumpy odds although you can pick holes in his form. He missed 2018, but won 6 on the bounce in the 2017 season. He beat one of today's rivals Dance Of Time when winning his Restricted, but then beat a 2m horse in the Intermediate so that told us little. He won a couple of races in the very weak South East area as well and didn't really clock a fast time until the last of those at Parham. He returned after his year break to finish 2nd to One Conemara at Sheriff Hutton in January. On the face of it that was a good return, but the winner has been beaten since. Also the winning time was 8 seconds slower than Path To Freedom's winning time on the same card and he was carrying 2lbs more. Dale Peters doesn't over face his horses so he clearly thinks he is up to a Hunter Chase and clearly he will come on for that run last time, but I would have a concern if the ground turned soft and there are others I prefer at the current prices.

I really fancied Dance Of Time to win on his Hunter Chase debut at Kelso last season, but he was a big disappointment. He didn't jump well and didn't find a great deal when asked for an effort having been pretty keen. He won on his seasonal return at Thorpe Lodge in what wasn't the strongest of heats, but he did it well enough. I think he has the ability to be competitive, but the concern is the Kelso run and he might just be one of those horses who is good in points, but doesn't take to racing under rules. 

As mentioned above Path To Freedom won in a faster time at Sheriff Hutton than the race Wither Or Not was 2nd in. That was his seasonal return and he then won a slowly run race at Duncombe Park beating Aintree Foxhunter 3rd Greensalt. He was 2nd to Hazel Hill at Leicester in his first Hunter Chase and then was pulled up in the Heart Of All England. He is only 7 is there is a chance he can build on what he has done under rules previously and although I don't want to back him I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well.

The only other one I can give a chance to is Ballinahow Bill and I like his chances. I was fairly keen on his chances in the Heart Of All England at Hexham only for him to fall at 2 out. Dale Peters rode him that day and said he thought he would have won as he hadn't gone through the gears with him yet. He then went Stratford where he was very keen and didn't seem to be enjoying things at all and eventually ran himself into the ground. I just wonder if he didn't take to Stratford as he just didn't seem to handle the track. He has gone to new connections now and Charlotte Crane, who won on Seefood last week at Leicester, trains and rides him. He has been set two very tough tasks this season. First of all he was 3rd behind Foxhunter bound Haymount and then it was no surprise that Arthur's Secret beat him by 30L last time. I think he is the one horse who is over priced in the race at the moment.

You can give some sort of chance to Wither Or Not, Dance Of Time, Path To Freedom and Ballinahow Bill, but I think the only chance one of them can win is if Diplomate Sivola disappoints because if he runs up to his handicap form he should be winning this. I do think Ballinahow Bill is worth a small bet e/w though at the prices and I will back him to finish 2nd to the favourite.

Ballinahow Bill 0.5pts e/w @ 14/1 Betfair, Paddy Power, Betfred and most others

Diplomate Sivola to beat Ballinahow Bill 0.5pts f/c

[yossa6133]

Fav 8/11 with Marathon at the moment, had a small nibble.