Hunter Chases - Leicester 3.00 and 4.30

[Darran]

The 3.00 is one of the feature Hunter Chases of the season (indeed it is the richest race of the day today) and this used to be a card I covered on At The Races when Leicester was with them still. This year's renewal is a shocker though. 5 runners, one of which is a no hoper and there are questions about the other 4 as to either how much ability they still have or if they are good enough.

The Last But One has been backed into odds on and he is the one I would have as favourite, but at the same time he isn't a bet for me at the price. He was with Paul Nicholls when under rules previously and had 6 starts over fences. He won 3 of them including a handicap off 119. He also fell twice though so that does have to be a slight worry as Leicester is a stiff enough jumping test. He went to his new trainer for £30k at the sales in the summer and he has won 3 points so far this season. The problem is he has beaten a grand total of 3 horses in those races and one of those was a walkover. He was 1/3 on his seasonal debut and beat two poor horses. He then had a walkover also at Wadebridge and he took his chance in a match in the following race where he was 1/10 and the other horse pulled up. The next day he then went to Buckfastleigh and finished 2nd to Master Baker who is a good yardstick to be fair and the time was good so it seems it was run at a fair enough pace despite the fact the race was basically a match. This is a very different test although it should suit given his previous form. He is only 7 so there is scope for improvement, but I'd like to have seen something a bit more concrete to want to back him at odds on. After writing this I have just seen the trainer's quotes in the Racing Post and he seems pretty confident about his chances so maybe taking him on is pointless, but like I say the price is tight enough for me.

Champagne West ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup 2 years ago and finished 9th behind Sizing John. His run prior to that was when he won the Thyestes at Gowran off a mark of 154 beating Ucello Conti by 7L. One problem is he went off the boil last time and didn't show any form at all and his last run came in a pretty average race at Punchestown in June. I struggle to believe he is anywhere near as good as his current rating suggests and connections paid £50k for him at the sales which looks plenty for him. Now maybe his new trainer as sweetened him up and if he has got him back to anywhere near his best that will be enough to win this. The problem is though it is total guesswork to know if that is the case. We are also talking about a horse who won a Thyestes in soft ground. Is 2m6f on what is going to be pretty quick ground really going to be what he needs? I'm not so sure myself and as much as it wouldn't be a shock if he did win, I don't want to back him.

Seefood was pretty useful as well in his former rules career. He was 2nd in the 2016 Grand Sefton and was then sent off a joint favourite in the Topham the same season when he fell when beginning to make a move. He went missing for 470 days after that and showed little in his two starts last summer. He is 12 now so you wouldn't think he was still capable of running to his best, but I really respect the trainer who does really well with a small string and I find it interesting that he was prepared to start him off in a race like this even if it is weaker than usual.

Mantou is a much bigger price, but I think he is worth a speculative bet. Now if the other 3 are still capable of running up to a good mark then he won't be good enough and I also worry about his stamina over this trip, but he will enjoy the ground and although it was a poor Hunter Chase he won at Sedgefield last year he still did it well. Although he was beaten 22L in 3rd in the handicap Hunter Chase at Stratford it wasn't the worst run in the world given the over watered ground was against him and the winner was very well handicapped. This season he returned at Ludlow and I thought he showed enough to suggest he could maybe win again this season until his stamina/fitness told. He might not be good enough and he might not stay, but at 28/1 I think that is more than factored into this price and he has a better chance than that.

So the front two in the betting are too short for me although The Last But One is the horse I would have as the market leader. In a race that it is hard to be fully confident about I prefer to split a point between a win bet on Seefood and an e/w bet on Mantou.

Seefood 0.5pts win @ 13/2 with Betbright (6/1 available with most others)

Mantou 0.25pts e/w @ 28/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor

Brave Jaq is favourite for the 2nd Hunter Chase on the card and as much as his 2nd at Stratford last year is the best form in the race, I can't possibly be backing him for this. First of all that Stratford run was a hell of an effort given how hard a puller he is in the over watered ground as he was only headed late on and the first three were miles clear of anything else. The key thing is though is he is a hard puller and pretty much uncontrollable and unless they have somehow got him to settle in his time off, I just don't see him staying this far even on quick ground. My thinking is they need to get a run into him and I would be much more interested in him in the 2m race here a week on Friday.

Blue Mountain Boy is next in the betting and has at least won an open point which the others haven't. The problem is the two wins last season aren't that strong form wise and the 2nd of them he was left to have a solo run from 3 out and the main rival's saddle slipped. He stopped pretty quickly at Exeter in April and that does suggest this trip might suit better. He has only had 10 runs so there could be more to come, but I think there needs to be for him to win this.

I couldn't really understand why Changeofluck was sent off an 11/8 favourite at Fontwell last year over just a little bit further than this and he plugged on for a well beaten 4th. To be fair he then ran a cracker in the John Corbet Cup at Stratford to finish 3rd, but that is over nearly 3m4f. He then was tried in a handicap were he pulled up after bleeding. The 3rd on his seasonal debut at Higham last month was nothing special and he surely is going to get found for pace over this trip on quick ground.

Luke Harvey is obviously better known as a presenter than a trainer, but he did a superb job with Porlock Bay and he really knows what he is doing. Luke sent this horse to Nicky Henderson to start with and he won a bumper at Worcester in June 2017. He finished 3rd the next month, but the then got injured and Luke decided to train him himself and send him pointing. He returned in December at Larkhill and he duly won a Restricted by 30L. He wasn't so good the next time at Chipley Park when pulling up although I wonder if he might have needed the run that day. I could be adding 2 and 2 and coming up with 5, but Luke tweeted that he had past a late fitness test on the morning of the race and I get the feeling he might have had another little hold up in between the runs. He is clearly delicate, but he also clearly has plenty of ability and given he is a bumper winner this trip should be fine and he handled fast ground in Ireland.

Hinxworth was in front of Changeofluck at Fontwell last season when finishing 2nd and this sort of trip suits him much better than 3m and he clearly didn't stay at Warwick a couple of weeks after the Fontwell run behind Garde Ville. He had no chance with an impressive 1-4 winner on his seasonal return in November in a point at Barbury although he hasn't been seen since. It's hard to see him being progressive enough to win this, but he looks to have more in his favour than some.

Asangy is only 7 and is a big horse so the tight tracks of Cartmel and Stratford are unlikely to have suited. He ran OK at Cartmel but was well beaten in 3rd and he never went a yard at Stratford. Would likely have finished 3rd on his seasonal return in an Intermediate at Bangor 9 days ago, but it was a fair enough effort. Given he is a big horse though I wonder if quick ground is going to be what he wants. If he handles it though he could run well.

Brave Jaq really does make the market here, but like I say unless he has somehow suddenly become less keen I just don't see how he doesn't burn himself out before they get to the finish. Changeofluck looks like he needs an extra mile, Blue Mountain Boy's form isn't the best although this trip will suit better than others. Hinxworth looks a bit exposed and Asangy might want a bit more give in the ground. That leaves us with Drumlynn. If he was coming here on the back of the Larkhill win I reckon he would be almost favourite and if I am right about him needing the last run, then that P in his form has really helped the price for us. He is unexposed and I think he has a really solid chance of landing this.

Drumlynn 2pts @ 9/2 with Bet365 and most others

[Darran]

Should add that the two bets in the 3.00 have been been shortened since the post went live last night but I still suggest they are the bets. I have a feeling they might drift again near the off so use BOG if you can. On the plus side Drumlynn is a bigger price now.