Hunter Chase - 4.55 Lingfield

[Darran]

An interesting Hunter Chase this afternoon at Lingfield and the Full Trottle fully deserves his place at the head of the market. If you read my Hereford preview then you will know I am a big fan of this horse. He is so consistent and is a good solid horse and is one of my favourite horses running in Hunter Chases at the moment. He only won once last year when showing the benefit of a wind op at Ludlow, but his 2nds to Shotavodka at Hereford and Mr Mercurial at Cheltenham were top performances as well. I think he does have the best form in the race, but I'm not so sure that he is as far clear as the odds suggest. He was punted early on last night and has drifted out slightly to 10/11 this morning, but I still think that is on the short side. There is every chance this is going to be a strongly run race in what is likely to be holding ground and that could just see his fitness levels tested. He might well win and I am loathed to take him on, but I just don't see any value in his current price.

Excitable Island is the horse who was given the 4 miler on Cheltenham's Hunter Chase night after Battle Dust lost his saddle cloth. He then did well to finish 4th at Stratford in the John Corbet Cup given he wasn't travelling from a fair way out. The problem is this race is over 2m4f and it isn't hard to think that connections have been forced to run here as I think this trip will be too sharp for him.

Net D'Ecosse was stuffed at Warwick behind Hazel Hill, but it is interesting he has been given a wind op since then so clearly connections thought there was a breathing issue. He retains the tongue-tie as well just to make sure. His last win came back in May at Kilbeggan over this trip in soft ground off a mark of 128. That form is obviously good enough to see him run a big race here, but there are two things that concern me. First of all his former trainer Noel Meade didn't think he wanted soft ground so this holding ground today might not suit. Also his form since coming over isn't the strongest. Now he was 2nd to Road To Rome's stablemate Irish Anthem at Clifton in December and his trainer is off the belief that Irish Anthem is better than Road To Rome, so if you take that at face value then it probably wasn't a bad run, but I am not so sure myself. Maybe the drop back to this trip will help, but if there is still a wind issue concern this race will test that.

Newsworthy is the other one in single figures. As I wrote in my review of the Taunton race I thought he ran better than his distance behind the winner suggests. Obviously we now know that he had no chance of beating Road To Rome, but I thought he traveled really in the race despite his jumping not being the best after he made a mistake early on which seemed to knock his confidence. Trip and ground look ideal and he clearly didn't stay 3m6f back in a point at Cocklebarrow, but he also made mistakes that day so that concern remains here. I do though think he still has a chance because if I am right about his running at Taunton then he would have a fair chance of hitting the frame here.

The only other one I think is worth talking about is the horse I am going to make the main bet in the race, Bally River Boy. Those who read my Ffos Las preview will know I had a small bet on him ahead of that race which of course didn't happen because of EI. Granted he pulled up at Warwick, but he couldn't make the running that day and I think he sulked. He should have a much better chance of making the running in this lesser race. He did well to win at Fontwell last season and he ran pretty well in the John Corbet Cup despite pulling up because he didn't stay that night. His reappearance run saw him win by 20L at Ffos Las. Now that wasn't the strongest race in the world, but that was still an impressive performance to win in testing ground. I don't think he will have any issues with the drop in trip here and I hope that he might be able to put the others under pressure with his front running tactics and we know he will just keep going as well. The final plus is that James King is back in the saddle after he rode him in that Ffos Las race. 

I think Full Trottle is the best horse in the race, but he could be vulnerable this afternoon especially at the price, and Bally River Boy is likely to make this a test in the ground and I think he has a good chance of being capable of making all. I certainly don't think he should be a double figure price. I am also going to have a small saver on Newsworthy because I thought the Taunton run was better than it looks on paper and hopefully he can jump better than he has done on both his starts this season.

Bally River Boy 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with William Hill, BetVictor and Betway

Newsworthy 0.5pts e/w @ 6/1 with Betway

[Lisa603]

unlucky Darran - nice value pick at 12s ew