Using odds to predict scores

[duckmaster]

Hello

I decided to put all of last years data from the English leagues into a spreadsheet to show me which scores were most prevelant depending on the odds of the home team. I came up with the first chart (attached). The odds of the home team are shown at the top (odds according to Bet365), with the number of times each scoreline occurred following downwards. From this I made a second chart showing the percentage of times each scoreline happened, and from that I made the final chart showing the scores ordered in how many times they appeared for teams with those odds (bold and italic numbers are tied with the same colour of box in their column).

Lets take the 1.81-2.00 range of odds and find a game with similar odds for the home team. I'm going to go with Club Atlético San Lorenzo de Alem v Racing de Cordoba (mouthful!) in Argentina at 11.30pm tonight. According to my chart the most likely score is 2-1, with Skybet offering odds of 8.50 on that. But they have lower odds than that on FIVE scores (1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 1-1 and 0-1) suggesting my bet is a "value" bet.

I'm going to take the following bets:

Club Atlético San Lorenzo de Alem v Racing de Cordoba - home odds 1.80; most likely score 2-1; odds 8.00, 4 scores with lower odds

Instituto de Córdoba v Quilmes AC - home odds 1.73; most likely score 1-1; odds 6.5, 1 score with lower odds & 2 with equal

Club San José v Oriente Petrolero - home odds 1.22; most likely score 1-0; odds 11.00, 4 scores with lower odds

 

I'm going to take that as a £7 patent bet, covering the singles, doubles and treble with £1 each and see what happens!

If one wins I'll either lose 50p or make £1.50 (depending which one), if two win I'll make £63-106 profit and if all three then £847!

 

Let's see what happens!

[duckmaster]

First coupon

 

Club Atlético San Lorenzo de Alem v Racing de Cordoba - home odds 1.80; most likely score 2-1; odds 8.00

LOST - SCORE 2-0 (HT 1-0)

RANKING OF 2-0: 3rd

 

Instituto de Córdoba v Quilmes AC - home odds 1.73; most likely score 1-1; odds 6.5

WON - SCORE 1-1 (HT 0-0)

RANKING OF 1-1: 1st

 

Club San José v Oriente Petrolero - home odds 1.22; most likely score 1-0; odds 11.00

LOST - SCORE 5-0 (HT 1-0)

RANKING OF 5-0: UNPLACED (but was 1st in the 1.0 - 1.2 odds column?)

 

Will need some tweaks but that's a 50p loss from £7.00. Any suggestions?