Machine Learning - FT Draws predictions

[neilovan]

Hi All,

I am a systems/data analyst by profession and have  been running Machine Learning algorithms over large datasets of European soccer results.

The leagues are; Championship, English Premier, Scotland, Holland Eredivisie, Germany Bundesliga1, Spain Laliga, Turkey ligue1, Belgium Pro, Portugal, Italy SerieA  and French Ligue 1. One of the bets that interests me is the full time draw. So, I have written some machine learning models that have been trained to do just this. For a model to be successful it must beat the base rate for that particular bet. SO looking at the table below for 2017/2018 ....

Belgium pro had the highest draw % (28) while Portugal had the lowest (20%). The 4 columns on the right are 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, 3-3 draws as a percentage of results. SO as an example, the Championship had the highest % of 0-0 draws (9%) while LaLiga had the lowest percentage of 1-1 draws (8%).   A decent model must beat the base rate. SO Belgium full time DRAW predictions  should have a strike rate of at least 28%.

2017/2018 DRAW STATS

League	Drw ▴	League	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3
Belgium Pro	28	Belgium Pro	6	13	6	2
Championship	27	Championship	9	12	5	1
Germany Bundes 1	27	Germany Bundes 1	7	13	6	1
English Premier	26	English Premier	8	12	5	1
French Ligue 1	25	French Ligue 1	6	12	6	2
Scottish Premier	25	Scottish Premier	8	12	4	0
Holland Eredivisie	24	Holland Eredivisie	4	11	6	2
Spanish LaLiga	23	Spanish LaLiga	7	8	6	1
Turkey Super Lig	22	Turkey Super Lig	6	11	4	2
Italy Serie A	22	Italy Serie A	7	11	3	1
Portugal Primeira	20	Portugal Primeira	6	10	3	1

 Seasons 2009 to 2017 draw averages by league looked like this.

Championship  0.2748129675810474  so 27.48% etc
French        0.2733241188666206
Italy         0.2595656670113754 
Turkey        0.25154541131716596
Germany       0.2508269018743109
Belgium       0.24920969441517388
EPL           0.2542722451384797
Portugal      0.24693777560019597 
Scotland      0.24314536989136057
Holland       0.232821341956346
Spain         0.22832167832167832 

OK, models are done. I will post  the following three leagues (see model results below),  every week. I would expect at least 3 times as many games in the season for each league.

 2009           Italy   4         2      2   4.80    2     2.80    70.00 %
 2010           Italy   6         4      2   8.45    2     6.45   107.50 %
 2011           Italy   6         3      3   6.95    3     3.95    65.83 %
 2012           Italy   4         0      4   0.00    4    -4.00  -100.00 %
 2013           Italy   7         3      4   6.70    4     2.70    38.57 %
 2014           Italy   3         2      1   4.50    1     3.50   116.67 %
 2015           Italy   3         1      2   2.75    2     0.75    25.00 %
 2016           Italy  10         1      9   2.60    9    -6.40   -64.00 %
 2017           Italy   6         1      5   2.25    5    -2.75   -45.83 %
Total games  49  wins  17   Total Profit or loss 7.0  ROI   14.29 %
Strike Rate  0.3469387755102041

 2009         Germany   7         3      4   7.50    4     3.50    50.00 %
 2010         Germany   4         1      3   2.60    3    -0.40   -10.00 %
 2011         Germany  11         4      7   9.45    7     2.45    22.27 %
 2012         Germany   2         0      2   0.00    2    -2.00  -100.00 %
 2013         Germany   8         4      4   9.60    4     5.60    70.00 %
 2014         Germany   8         2      6   4.60    6    -1.40   -17.50 %
 2015         Germany   7         1      6   2.30    6    -3.70   -52.86 %
 2016         Germany   6         0      6   0.00    6    -6.00  -100.00 %
 2017         Germany   8         5      3  11.43    3     8.43   105.38 %
Total games  61  wins  20   Total Profit or loss 6.48  ROI   10.62 %
Strike Rate  0.32786885245901637

 2009    Championship   6         2      4   4.80    4     0.80    13.33 %
 2010    Championship   7         0      7   0.00    7    -7.00  -100.00 %
 2011    Championship   7         1      6   2.25    6    -3.75   -53.57 %
 2012    Championship   7         2      5   4.80    5    -0.20    -2.86 %
 2013    Championship   5         3      2   7.30    2     5.30   106.00 %
 2014    Championship   5         2      3   4.80    3     1.80    36.00 %
 2015    Championship   9         4      5   9.80    5     4.80    53.33 %
 2016    Championship   6         1      5   2.70    5    -2.30   -38.33 %
 2017    Championship   6         4      2  10.15    2     8.15   135.83 %
Total games  58  wins  19   Total Profit or loss 7.6  ROI   13.10 %
Strike Rate  0.3275862068965517

Looking forward to your company/opinions etc  in a winning 2018/2019 season.

All the best to you.

Edited August 8, 2018 by neilovan

[neilovan]

No Championship fixtures fit the criteria this weekend of 9th August. Italy and Spain not started yet