ELO ranking using expected goals model

[The Analyst]

Hi all,

I'm new to the forum but not to the betting itself. I've been betting for several years now with some positive results long term now. Currently I have some tools that enable me to get the data for expected goals for various leagues after each round of games which enables me to use another Poisson tool to model my own probabilities and look for value bets. It has served me vey well in past few years and the results were very good overall. Over the summer I'm planning to upgrade it even further. I'm thinking about building an ELO ranking based on expected goals and odds. What I mean is that I want a ranking that starts of as a typical ELO ranking but then it gets adjusted based on games between the teams and their expected goals scores plus the odds for each team. So for example if team A plays team B and their closing line win odds are say 1.65 and 5.5 then depending on their corresponding expected goals produced in that game their rankings would change accordingly. I want to make this upgrade to even further improve my current tools as I don't like to stand still . It should negate any potential problems with favorable fixtures for the teams for example. I have all the data needed including tools to get expected goals values and also odds for the games as well so that is not a problem. I just wanted to know if anyone has done something similar or if they have any ideas on what would be the best way to implement it. Thanks in advance.

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @The Analyst   

I've moved this to systems and strategies for you. We have our own ELO Ratings right here too https://www.punterslounge.com/elo-football-ratings which are due an update in the very near future.