Newspaper Tipsters

[ScouseKev]

We all know the vast majority of newapaper tipsters are as hopeless as the man on the street. You only have to look at the Racing Post Naps Table to see how many of them are consistantly in the red.

So it got me thinking, what if I layed their tips. Obviously not everyone in the Naps Table, and not just Naps. Most tipsters have to give a tip for every race, whether they want to or not. Lets face it, unless you're an addict, why would you bet in every race?

So I carefully chose one tipster who seems particuarly bad and have paper tested laying every single tip over the last three or so weeks.

And it makes for interesting reading, though I'm not sure the amount of data gathered is enough to press forward with real money.

How many tips determines whether a system is good or bad? 100? 500? 1000?

Anyway, here's some data I have gathered. I'd welcome some input about whether it's worth pursuing.

All bets are subject to 5% Betfair commission, and I'm paper laying them to a nominal £2 stake. All prices are Betfair SP.

 

Lays: 539

Losers (successful lays): 421

S/R: 78.11%

Profit: £186.34 (93.17 pts)

ROI:  3.32%

Average odds: 6.22

Average odds of winners: 3.59

Biggest odds winner: 17.5

Shortest odds loser: 1.05

Highest odds: 60

Bets at odds higher than 20:  14 (no winners)

Bets at odds higher than 10: 83 (6 winners)

Bets at odds below 2: 74 (5.79 pts profit)

The 500+ bets were over 24 days, but it was during the adverse weather when some meetings were lost.

I'm thinking of paper trading until I get to 1000, which should take another two weeks or so I reckon.

 

I know it can be time consuming, but it could be automated using software like Gruss.

 

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @ScouseKev  

Interesting stuff, I’d say once you have around 2000 lays you’ll have a better sample size. Looking forward to seeing how it works out.