Big Race Trends - Sat Feb 17th

[BillyHills]

This week looking at the Grand National Trial at Haydock and the 2m3f Class 2 Handicap Hurdle at Ascot

 

Haydock 3.15

BETFRED GRAND NATIONAL TRIAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) (Class 1) (5yo+) Winner £56,950 15 runners 3m4f97y 

Key Trends

15/20 Aged under 10
8/10 Raced between 34 and 54 days ago
16/20 Placed last time (10 won)
15/20 Rated 144 or under
14/20 Had between 4 or fewer runs this season

 

Ascot 3.00

ASCOT SPRING GARDEN SHOW HANDICAP HURDLE (Class 2) (4yo+) Winner £28,152 21 runners 2m3f58y

 

Key Trends (Race run 11 times)

9/11 Aged 7 or under
9/11 Ran within 42 days
9/11 Carried 11-2 or less
8/11 Ran 3 times or less that season
7/11 Rated less than 140
6/11 Finished 1st or 2nd last time

 

[BillyHills]

Only 9 runners

Key Trends

8/10 Raced between 34 and 54 days ago
We lose Blaklion, The Dutchman, Yala Enki, Three Faces West, 

16/20 Placed last time (10 won)(completed start)
We lose Silsol, Sir Mangan

15/20 Rated 144 or under
All three left qualify

15/20 Aged under 10
We lose Mysteree

14/20 Had between 4 or fewer runs this season
We lose Daklondike

Selection
Wild West Wind 1pt 7/1 Bet365

 

[richard-westwood]

Blaklion 99.12

Wild west wind  99.05

 

I just can' get away from blaklion here ....I know he bucks trends but is so far ahead on my ratings that he looks too good to miss...  top weight negative but goes on heavy .....I've gotta stick with him 

Blaklion 10pts win 3/1 sportsbet

[Trotter]

Hayd 3.15 - Grand National Trial

I think this is a bit tricky with a fairly small field ............ 

15/15 – UK-based trained winners
15/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
12/15 – Aged 10 or younger

Which just leaves me with two -

Blacklion at 9/4

The Dutchman at 9/2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Trotter]

Ascot 3.00

11/12 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
8/12 – Had won over 2m4f or further before
8/12 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
7/12 – Carried 10-12 or less

That eliminated all of them so I've ruled out the 'ran within 5 weeks' trend ....... I'm now sure how relevant that is nowadays as trainers are much more adept at readying horses at home

Left with 3

Dieg Man, Kildisart, Fixe Le Cap

3 is too many so I'm eliminating Dieg Man on the basis that we don't know how good his French form is and the two wins here have been novice races at Catterick and Sedgefield which are not top tracks

So I'm left with

Kildisart at 7/2

Fixe Le Cap at 7/1

[BillyHills]

9/11 Aged 7 or under
We lose Court Minstrel, Solstice Star

9/11 Ran within 42 days
We lose Fixe Le Cap, Stowaway Magic, Kildisart, Dieg Man, 

6/11 Finished 1st or 2nd last time
We lose Vivas, La Patriote

All other trends met
 

Selection
Friday Night Light EW 10/1 Ladbrokes

[Xtc12]

3.00 - Ascot Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m3f110y

11/12 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before (1,6)
10/12 – Ran within the last 5 weeks   (2,3,4,5)
8/12 – Had won over 2m4f or further before  (7,8,9)
8/12 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old  (9)
7/12 – Carried 10-12 or less
7/12 - Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Had run at Ascot over hurdles before
3/12 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
2/12 – Raced at Sandown last time out
2/12 – Trained by Dr Richard Newland   (8)

All gone after trend 3 .... Patriote 1 Pt EW @ 8\1 Ladbrokes

3.15 - Betfred Grand National Trial (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f ITV
15/15 – UK-based trained winners
15/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before  
13/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before  (5)
13/15 – Finished in the top three last time out   (3, 4, 6, 8, 9)
13/15 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before  (1) 

The Dutchman 1 Pt ew @ 5\1 Paddy Power 

 

[skylark2009]

3.15 Haydock

Age - 7 to 11 yo's are 20 wins from last 20 runnings.

8 and 9yo's are 6 wins each with 9yo's showing a profit to level stakes.

Last run placing from last 20 runnings -

1st - 10 from 61 - LSP of +35pts
2nd - 5 form 46
3rd - 1 from 28
5th - 1 from 15
7th - 1 from 11
Pulled Up - 1 from 27
Unseated Rider - 1 from 9

Highest finishing position in one of last three runs from last 20 runnings.

1st - 15 from 128
2nd - 4 from 59
5th - 1 from 9

Tongue tie from last 20 runnings -

Worn - 0 from 23
Not Worn - 20 from 238

9yo's - 1st last time out - No tongue tie - Best from last three runs leave -

Blaklion

[BillyHills]

Well we got 1st and 2nd in the Ascot race

[Trotter]

On ‎16‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 2:32 PM, Trotter said:

Ascot 3.00

Dieg Man, Kildisart, Fixe Le Cap

3 is too many so I'm eliminating Dieg Man on the basis that we don't know how good his French form is and the two wins here have been novice races at Catterick and Sedgefield which are not top tracks

as a little post-script to this comment of mine I heard Nick Luck say something interesting on RUK 

My assumption was that Dieg Man might not be that good because he had 'only' won novice events at Catterick and Sedgefield

But Nick's comment was that maybe the trainer had run him in low grade races for race experience knowing that he would be given a lower opening mark than if he had won novice events at Ascot and Newbury 

I thought that was quite a though provoking point which hadn't occurred to me ........