BillyHills Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 I've always liked looking at Trends and previous winners and find it quite useful when weighing up a big handicap. In this thread I will, time permitting, attempt to put a race up each week and will focus on the Saturday handicaps rather than the graded races that often cut up and trends are not really needed to find the winner. *Please feel free to help with any races that you want to look at or add any information to the ones already posted.* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Saturday Jan 13th Kempton 2.40 Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle Previous winners Key Trends 9/10 Aged 7 or under 9/10 Single figure Odds 9/10 Ran within 50 days 8/10 Carried less than 11st 4lbs 6/10 Trained by P.Nicholls or N.Williams gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 9, 2018 Share Posted January 9, 2018 Cheers BH ........ looks interesting Was it Bowles used to do the Trends in the old days ?........ I always enjoyed reading them although I'm a bit of a sceptic. But I think Trends will be most useful in the big handicaps where trainers tend to have an idea of what sort of horse they need for the race so you'll get similar types each year hopefully this will be attract some interest and people will join in BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2018 Author Share Posted January 9, 2018 Yeah, Rob used to do some trends back in the old days. I thought it may be useful to some, I know its not everyones cup of tea and its not an exact science but as you say it does give the odd nugget in the big handicaps. gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 Sat Jan 13th Warwick 3.35: Betfred Classic H'Cap Chase Grade 3 Previous Winners Key Trends 10/10 Had ran within 50 days 9/10 Aged 8 or older 7/10 Carried less than 11-7 8/10 Rated lower than 145 9/10 Favourites beaten 8/10 Finished in frame on last completed start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 The Lanzarote - 21 furlongs I've been looking at the 10 previous winners and noted the following - 10/10 had previously won on Right Handed tracks 10/10 had previously won races with double figure field size 9/10 had not won over further than today's trip (the one that had was only half a furlong further. Suggests you don't want a stayer dropping in trip) 8/10 had never run on the Flat (one of the other 2 had only run once, on racecourse debut in the French provinces. The other one had run 6 times and never been placed). Suggests you want a Jumps bred horse not a fancy dan off the flat - I note that the current favourite, River Frost, is flat bred and has run 10 times on the Flat. Not sure if that should put you off though as he is a CD winner last time out in a competitive handicap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 10, 2018 Author Share Posted January 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Trotter said: The Lanzarote - 21 furlongs I've been looking at the 10 previous winners and noted the following - 10/10 had previously won on Right Handed tracks 10/10 had previously won races with double figure field size 9/10 had not won over further than today's trip (the one that had was only half a furlong further. Suggests you don't want a stayer dropping in trip) 8/10 had never run on the Flat (one of the other 2 had only run once, on racecourse debut in the French provinces. The other one had run 6 times and never been placed). Suggests you want a Jumps bred horse not a fancy dan off the flat - I note that the current favourite, River Frost, is flat bred and has run 10 times on the Flat. Not sure if that should put you off though as he is a CD winner last time out in a competitive handicap. Thats really good info Trotter the finster 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiggoBets Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Great thread, I always look at trends for the big Saturday races. The past two Grand National winners have been 'trends horses'. I was looking at trends earlier for the classic chase at Warwick but it seems Billy has beat me too it. A couple more I found were 12/15 previous winners had run 2 or 3 times in the present season, 13/15 have won a race over 3m 2f before and horses that have run in any race over 4 miles previously have won 11/15. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 10, 2018 Share Posted January 10, 2018 Diese Des Bieffes 8/1 Krackatoa King 8/1 this is my EW double BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 The decs are out Looking at the Lanzarote and applying the trends fairly strictly there's only one horse left ........ and this one doesn't fit all the trends as not trained by Nicholls or Williams Diese des Bieffes currently 6/1 Another one fits the trends apart from price and could be the EW shot Dentley de Mee currently 20/1 (and trained by Nick Williams) So these are my two against the field based on trends win - Diese des Bieffes currently 6/1 EW - Dentley de Mee currently 20/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Come up with 2 for the Classic Chase Krakatoa King currently 8/1 Emperors Choice currently 11/1 Be interesting to see if other people come up with the same horses. I do think there's room for a bit of leeway in using the trends ........ for example I'm not keen on trends which use the Odds ....... eg Favourites, Horses in single figure odds, as to my mind the purpose of looking at a race in this way is to find horses that have a better chance then their odds ! ......... in other words use the trends to establish what 'should' be favourite. Using trends based on odds seems to defeat the object. So I'm likely to skip those trends and other posters might give less weight to other trends so it's possible we will come up with different horses. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 Glad we think alike Billy I also look for the best trend horse without using Prices unless of course the trends suggest a price significants but I use it as my last trend if I have a few selections after all the others and use ot for a final selection as I did with Karaoke King but Diese des Bieffes was trended without price Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 11, 2018 Author Share Posted January 11, 2018 3 hours ago, Bubbles180 said: Glad we think alike Billy I also look for the best trend horse without using Prices unless of course the trends suggest a price significants but I use it as my last trend if I have a few selections after all the others and use ot for a final selection as I did with Karaoke King but Diese des Bieffes was trended without price Think you agree with Trotter not me Not looked at the decs yet myself Bubbles180 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbles180 Posted January 11, 2018 Share Posted January 11, 2018 1 hour ago, BillyHills said: Think you agree with Trotter not me Not looked at the decs yet myself Yeo sorry just noticed that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Warwick Classic Chase 10/10 Had ran within 50 days We lose 2 Sir Mangan and Indian Castle 9/10 Aged 8 or older We lose Ballycross 7/10 Carried less than 11-7 We lose Missed Approach, Goodtoknow, Cogry, Cresswell Breeze, Crosspark, Milansbar. 8/10 Rated lower than 145 We lose none8/10 Finished in frame on last completed start We lose Topper Thornton, Russe Blanc, Itstimeforapint Left with 3 runners On The Road, Emperors Choice and Krackatoa King On The Road hasnt won a chase over 3m, 9/10 winners have. Going to go for Krakatoa King as he is a course winner 1pt EW 9/1 William Hill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Lanzarote Hurdle 9/10 Aged 7 or under We lose William Henry, I Shot The Sherrif, 9/10 Ran within 50 days We lose River Frost, Bags Groove, Topofthegame, Red Indian, Wishfull Dreaming, Le Patriote and Man From Mars8/10 Carried less than 11st 4lbs We lose El Terremoto, Top Ville Ben, Left with Diese Des Bieffes, Spititofthegames, Couer Blimey, Dentley De Mee and Dino Velvet. I'm going for Spiritofthegames due to him being the only 6yo left on my shortlist and he will be ridden by a claimer, both stats show up well in recent times. The last 5yo to win was rated 145 so a good class horse (as was the last 7yo to win it). Spiritofthegames has also ran at Kempton (so as Diese Des Bieffes but is half the price) 1pt EW Spiritofthegames 16/1 Corals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 12, 2018 Share Posted January 12, 2018 Nice one BH ! looks like we've got a few horses running for us .......... be neat if we got a couple of winners and our EW shots get placed ! .............. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 12, 2018 Author Share Posted January 12, 2018 Just to add to the mix - My Ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 Warwick Classic Chase I delved a little deeper into the trends and for this race I found it hard to separate Cresswell Breeze and Topper Thornton. it basically came down to that Cresswell Breeze finished in the places last outing as 7\12 finished in the first three in their previous race. 1 Pt Ew Cresswell Breeze @ 9\1 Bet365 Lanzarote Hurdle Got this one down to Diese Des Bieffes and Spiritofthegames and separated them on the basis of 13\16 returned 10\1 or shorter and 11\16 were in the top three in the betting. Don't think Spiritofthegames will come close in the betting. 1 Pt Win Diese Des Bieffes @ 5\1 bet365 BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 One of the trends picks is a non runner ....... Emperors Choice at Warwick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted January 13, 2018 Share Posted January 13, 2018 On 1/12/2018 at 10:19 AM, BillyHills said: 1pt EW Spiritofthegames 16/1 Corals Unlucky BH good call. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted January 14, 2018 Share Posted January 14, 2018 Well done BH with Spiritofhegames ....... 16/1 EW and went off 16/1 as well Added a bit of interest to watching the big races ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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