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probability method


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Hello guys A doubt that comes to me all the time. What is the best method to calculate the odds in football?

Poisson distribution

Regression Analysis

Pitagoras

Standard deviation

I hear many gamblers say that the best method is the Poisson distribution, but how do I calculate with a small number of games (for example 10), and how do I include factors such as, field control, embezzlement, needs / motivation of the team, among others?

How do I put these factors into numbers in this distribution? Someone to discuss this?

Thanks


Thanks

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