Grand national trial sat 18th feb

[richard-westwood]

Trends from racing traders :

13/13 – UK trained winners
13/13 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences (rules) before
12/13 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/13 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/13 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences (rules) before
10/13 – Aged 10 or younger
10/13 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
9/13 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
9/13 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
9/13 – Aged 9 or younger
9/13 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/13 – Rated 135 or higher
7/13 – Unplaced favourites
6/13 – Won last time out
6/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (all unplaced)
5/13 – Irish-bred winners
4/13 – Winners that won by exactly 15 lengths
4/13 – Ran in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Won with 11-12 in weight
3/13 – Finished 1st or 2nd in the Welsh Grand National last time out
3/13 – Trained by Lucinda Russell
2/13 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/1

I've had a quick run through with computer ...hard to know who will run at this early stage but it threw up 

bonny Kate   99.03

Tour des champs 99.01

polidam   98.96

top two here have very decent form ....bonny kate ran a cracker in irish version recently and no shame in that as hes still improving ....proved he has stamina and class ,.,,tour des champs won a tough 3m2f race at chelt proving he also has the necessary credentials to do well in this ...connections are firmly aiming him  at grand national so he probably needs to win this to have a goid chance of getting in and he looks a national type....priced up at 16/1 and 20/1 they look very decent ante post bets 

bonnykate 5pts win 20/1 corals 

tour des champs 5pts win 16/1 bet365

 

[richard-westwood]

Bonnykate non runner .....also polidam non runner so replace with 4th rated vieux lion rouge .98.95+...meaning top two rated backed ....any more non runners and sod the race lol

Vieux lion rouge 6pts win 8/1 bet365