January 30 - February 5

[CzechPunter]

[LePapo]

Nice thread, Davis Cup starts next week and again outright odds are very interesting. Last year I bet on Argentina at 25 and Italy at 17 to win the tournament and with a bit of luck I had a winner in Argentina. Now this year, I have bet on big prices again, one in each half of the draw. The top half is very open in my opinion. Argentina are the first seeds and they face Italy at home but at odds of around 7 they seem a poor value to me. Delpo is out of the squad and Delbonis (their best clay courter IMO) hasn't been called up. Italy has named a strong squad, fognini, lorenzi, seppi and bolleli so to me it wouldn't be a surprise if they win the tie. Eventual quarterfinal against Argentina, the germans would be the hosts and will probably play on hard and I give them the edge and against Italy they would play away probably on clay but I think the likes of Zverev and Kohli will be to much for Lorenzi and Fogna.

Germany at odds of between 30-40 are massive value to me. Strong squad, multisurface players and a good draw. I think they will get past Belgium with relatively ease. USA and Australia should win their ties as CR and Switzerland have named a poor squad. Although lack of a good second player in Australia might complicate things a bit. In a eventual quarterfinal USA would be the hosts against Australia and I give them the edge. 

Eventual semi, USA would travel to germany to play the tie.

In the bottom half, squads have been named and Kei and Andy Murray will miss the ties. Without Nishikori, France shouldn't have problems to win the tie. GB travel to Canada for a place in the quarterfinals. With Murray this would be an easy win for the Brits as Canada depends massively on Raonic perfomance. Their second player is Pospisil, really mediocre. Absence of Murray increases Canada odds to qualify but I think this tie will be decided in the doubles match. Then Serbia with Novak and playing at home should win the tie against the russians. And finally Spain goes to Croatia. Spanish players are among the best in tennis, with the likes of Rafa, Ferrer, RBA, both Lopez, Verdasco, Carreno Busta. They have plenty of players to choose and they can perform on clay and on hard and they have the Olympic doubles winning team. Croatia has named a weak team, no cilic no coric so this should be an easy win for the spanish. In the next round they would play Serbia away but I think this spanish team is capable of beating them away. Odds are around 10 which I consider value and they are bigger than those of Serbia France (around 5-7 both) and GB around 8.

So easy picks to me this year.

2 units on Spain to win the Davis Cup @12 

1 unit on Germany to win the Davis Cup @44

Each way on Germany is a good bet as well but I didn't have that choice with the bookie that offered 44.