Division Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June. Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others. Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League. I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value. I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill *This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example. *Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives. LEE-GRAYS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerWolf1 Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 Good luck! LEE-GRAYS and Division 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted November 26, 2016 Author Share Posted November 26, 2016 Betting Round 1: English Premier LeagueHull v West Brom Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1% Stake: €67 English Premier LeagueSwansea v Crystal Palace Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2% Stake: €56 English Premier LeagueMan Utd v West Ham Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7% Stake: €77 Xtc12 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted November 27, 2016 Author Share Posted November 27, 2016 Results - Betting Round 1 Hull 1-1 West Brom Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace Man Utd 1-1 West Ham Current Balance: €282 Xtc12 and LEE-GRAYS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted December 1, 2016 Author Share Posted December 1, 2016 Betting Round 2: English Premier LeagueCrystal Palace v Southampton Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7% Stake: €82 Spanish Primera DivisionBarcelona v Real Madrid Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1% Stake: €102 Champions LeagueReal Madrid v Borussia Dortmund Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4% Stake: €98 LEE-GRAYS and Xtc12 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted December 7, 2016 Author Share Posted December 7, 2016 Results - Betting Round 2 Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund Current Balance: €294 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted December 12, 2016 Author Share Posted December 12, 2016 Betting Round 3: English Premier LeagueEverton v Arsenal Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7% Stake: €81 English Premier LeagueWest Ham v Burnley Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3% Stake: €108 English Premier LeagueCrystal Palace v Man Utd Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1% Stake: €105 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted December 14, 2016 Author Share Posted December 14, 2016 Results - Betting Round 3 Everton 2-1 Arsenal West Ham 1-0 Burnley Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd Current Balance: €406 LEE-GRAYS and Xtc12 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted December 17, 2016 Author Share Posted December 17, 2016 Betting Round 4: English Premier LeagueTottenham v Burnley Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7% Stake: €99 English Premier LeagueWest Ham v Hull Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4% Stake: €152 English Premier LeagueEverton v Liverpool Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3% Stake: €155 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted January 14, 2017 Author Share Posted January 14, 2017 Results - Betting Round 4 Tottenham 2-1 Burnley West Ham 1-0 Hull Everton 0-1 Liverpool Current Balance: €190 English Premier LeagueEverton v Man City Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4% Stake: €58 English Premier LeagueSwansea v Arsenal Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8% Stake: €64 Spanish La LigaSevilla v Real Madrid Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2% Stake: €68 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted January 20, 2017 Author Share Posted January 20, 2017 Results - Betting Round 5 Swansea 0-4 Arsenal Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid Everton 4-0 Man City Current Balance: €197 German BundesligaWerder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7% Stake: €62 English Premier LeagueMan City v Tottenham Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4% Stake: €58 English Premier LeagueWest Brom v Sunderland Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6% Stake: €77 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted January 28, 2017 Author Share Posted January 28, 2017 Results - Betting Round 6 Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Man City 2-2 Tottenham West Brom 2-0 Sunderland Current Balance: €290 German BundesligaBayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3% Stake: €102 Spanish La LigaEspanyol v Sevilla Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1% Stake: €81 Spanish La LigaBetis v Barcelona Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8% Stake: €107 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted January 31, 2017 Author Share Posted January 31, 2017 Results - Betting Round 7 Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla Betis 1-1 Barcelona Current Balance: €138 English Premier LeagueMiddlesbrough v West Brom Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7% Stake: €43 English Premier LeagueLiverpool v Chelsea Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4% Stake: €36 English Premier LeagueMan Utd v Hull Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365 Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1% Stake: €52 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted February 10, 2017 Author Share Posted February 10, 2017 Results - Betting Round 8 Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea Man Utd 0-0 Hull Current Balance: €137 English Premier LeagueStoke v Crystal Palace Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3% Stake: €53 English Premier LeagueLiverpool v Tottenham Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6% Stake: €39 German BundesligaWolfsburg v Hoffenheim Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1% Stake: €45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted February 14, 2017 Author Share Posted February 14, 2017 Results - Betting Round 9 Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim Current Balance: €69 Champions LeagueBenfica v Borussia Dortmund Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1% Stake: €22 Champions LeagueReal Madrid v Napoli Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4% Stake: €25 Champions LeaguePSG v Barcelona Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7% Stake: €22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Division Posted February 15, 2017 Author Share Posted February 15, 2017 I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high. To quote my opening post: "This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example." I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake. Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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