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Breeders Cup - 4th/5th November


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Don't know if this is a general feeling but my interest has waned in the Breeders Cup

Nowadays I just tend to flick over for the Turf, Mile and Classic on the Saturday.......and ignore everything else and I don't watch the inter-race waffle either. I can't stand those endless human interest stories. For God's sake I'm not interested in humans !

I might watch one of the other races if there's a European horse that I've heard of running

 

 

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Oh well at least it prompted two people into a discussion:lol

Its always difficult when you don't know ALL of the runners and you can get frustrated when your 'favourite' gets done by an American rag or something. I just think its great to watch the Europeans take them on when it clearly doesn't suit our runners and to see how the likes of O'Brien approaches it.

*Also looking forward to seeing California Chrome, Won 15 races and earned over £8million. Whats not to like!

:ok

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Going to concentrate on the 3 main races

22.22: Breeders Cup Turf

23.40: Breeders Cup Mile

00.35: Breeders Cup Classic

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Stats and Previous Winners

Breeders Cup Turf (1m4f)

58187c5a6df76_ScreenShot2016-11-01at11.2

 

58173613eaced_ScreenShot2016-10-31at12.1

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to realise this is one race on the card that the Europeans excel in.

7 of the last 10 winners have come our way with Aidan O'Brien winning it 3 times since 2011. (He has had 16 runners though).

8 of the last 10 winners were under 8/1 

The last 3 double figure priced winners were all trained in America.

8 of the last 10 winner had previously won a Grade/Group 1 contest.

 

 

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Breeders Cup Mile (1m)

58187c9a1d1b8_ScreenShot2016-11-01at11.2

 

Stats and Previous Winners

581736f101cea_ScreenShot2016-10-31at12.1

 

Open race with no strong trends on Age or Price.

No Irish or English winner in this race since Ridgewood Pearl back in 1995 but the French have kept the European flag flying with 6 winners in the last 14 years.

Mares have won the race 5 times since 2003

9 out of the last 10 winners had won a Grade/Group1 previously. (8 that season)

4 favourites have won since 2006

7 of the last 10 winners either won or was in the first 3 last time out.

 

 

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Breeders Cup Classic 1m2f

58187cd4cde94_ScreenShot2016-11-01at11.3

 

Stats and Previous Winners

5817395580964_ScreenShot2016-10-31at12.2

 

The French won this race back in 1993 and the English with Ravens Pass in 2008. They are the only decent results in this race to date for the Europeans and its very much a 'home' banker.

Only one mare has won the race, Zenyatta in 2009.

8 out of the last 10 winners were aged 3 or 4.

6 out of the last 10 winners won last time out.

9 out the last 10 winners were priced 9/1 or lower.

The Favourite have only won once since 2006.

 

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Filly and mares turf Saturday

Sea Calisi  99.12

Lady Eli   99.11

als gal  99.11

Very close race and bookies have the progressive lady Eli as fav ...will be hard to beat but sea calisi and als gal both have posted decent efforts on a par with the fav

But are offered at 10/1 and 16/1 over 5x the price of the fav making them excellent value bets 

Sea calisi  5 Pts win 10/1 lad

Als gal  5pts win 16/1 lads 

 

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22.22 Breeders Cup Turf

Found will be the popular choice for Aidan O'Brien especially has she won it last year but i just think she has been on the go an awful long time and maybe if she had missed Ascot i would fancy her to follow up. My each way bet has to be Mondialiste from the O'Meara camp. He looks a different horse when he goes abroad and at the prices looks worth a nibble.

Mondialiste EW 25/1 Bet365

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23.40 Breeders Cup Mile

A cracking contest here and to be honest i wouldn't bother looking beyond the front three in the betting. Tepin is the one to beat after winning this last season and hardly putting a foot wrong in this campaign. Got beat last time out but will be spot on to make amends here. The European challenge is led by Limato and Alice Springs, two very different horses with very different strengths. Limato is all about speed and if he can stay the mile he will be very hard to beat while Alice Springs has just kept on improving for the O'Brien team. I'm going to stay loyal with Limato and just hope he can hold on to his finishing kick and last home.

Limato 100/30 Skybet

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00.35 Breeders Cup Classic

The worthy favourite here is California Chrome and according to the betting he looks to have just one serious danger in Arrogate. The 'Chrome' is unbeaten in 2016 winning all six races including three Grade 1's. Arrogate has nothing special on his CV accept that he won last time out at Saratoga by an incredible 13 lengths. That was his 4th win in 5 starts and is clearly an improving sort and could be a big danger if he has improved further. Frosted looks booked for third on all known form and an each way bet on him will be may peoples way to go rather than try and choose between the top two.

Frosted EW 10/1 Betfair

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OK OK OK Said I'd not be taking part but I'am, i have been drawn into this race and have burns creams at the ready, have plenty left over from 2011-2012-2013-2014-2015

But luck must change RIGHT?

Will Limato get the trip ? it's open to debate and sure he's a class act but he's not for me, Soz BH but the very best of Luck Sir.

Tepin - A massive Danger to my Selection and the horse i fear the most, if she wins then so be it and i got it wrong again and it's yet another trip back to the burns unit with fingers in the air.

I really do think the 4/1 on offer for Alice springs is generous, all she's done is improve and i also feel she's never been given a tough time ''even when winning'' i feel connections have timed this race with perfection and they'll have her spot on for this (Grade 1) Breeders cup mile.

She has a good draw and Ryan Moore will be over this course on foot more than once along with the O'Brien posse and they will leave NO STONE unturned, The only thing i see in the way of Victory is traffic problems.

23:40 Santa Anita ''Breeders Cup Mile'' - Alice Springs @ 4/1 some firms

 

Edited by Jimmy2shoes
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11 hours ago, Striker said:

Takeaway ordered, beers chilling....and bets are on!

7.05-Noted And Quoted ..each way @ 15-2  Skybet

7.43-Nuovo Record....each way @ 12-1  Bet 365

8.21-Drefong..win @ 3-1 Coral...  Won

11.01-Paulassilverlining....each way @ 11-1 Bet Victor  ...3rd

12.35-Frosted...each way @ 9-1  Skybet

 

 

That's ok

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