Hotshots Betting

[harry_rag]

I'll try and keep this brief, I can always expand on the explanations if necessary!

Previously - I had a thread for tryscorer bets on Rugby which started well and fizzled out somewhat, grinding to a halt towards the end of last year. I expressed an intention to start a new thread but never got round to doing so. https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/139398-rugby-union-tryscorer-bets/?do=findComment&comment=2507164

Currently - The approach evolved to only considering bets on the players named as "Hotshots" by the spread firms rather than looking at every player that was priced up in the tryscorer markets. This meant I could look at more games whilst focusing on the players most likely to score. It also extended to include football as well. Potential bets are buying or (occasionally) selling the hotshots, buying individual players' try or goal minutes or backing them in the fixed odds try/goalscorer markets.

What are "Hotshots"? - The spread firms price up 4 players (per game for football, per team for rugby) and quote a price based on 25 points per goal or try scored and 8 points per player not taking any part in the game. For example, one firm is quoting 31-34 for Hotshots in tonight's France/Iceland game, the named players being Giroud, Griezmann, Sigthorsson and Sigurdsson. Buyers would need at least two goals scored by those players to show a profit (2 x 25 = 50 for a 16 point profit on a buy at 34) while sellers would need less than 2 (no goals = 0 for the maximum profit of 31 points on a sell). Selling is the riskier proposition in terms of limited upside and potentially heavy downside.

What's the aim of this thread? - Build up a sample of games to see how often there is a potential bet (buy or sell) in the Hotshots market and how the bets would perform, and whether my attempts to price up the market have any merit compared to a strategy of blindly buying or selling. I will arrive at my own indicative price and compare it to the prices on offer. Games will be classified as follows based on any perceived edge:

A = edge of 15% or more

B = edge of 10% up to 14.99%

C = edge of 5% up to 9.99%

D = edge of less than 5%

E = no edge ("true" price is within the spread)

Hopefully that makes sense to anyone familiar with spread betting and it will become clearer as I start to post some selections. This is for monitoring purposes so is essentially going to be paper trading, though I will indicate where I've had an actual bet as a result of taking a closer look at player stats etc. In practice I tend to only take a closer look at bets with an apparent edge of at least 5%.

[clarky101]

Good luck H, like a spread bet myself...