rowdy Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 May as well start it now I guess! No lines out yet but NZ TAB has Lion 13+ @ $1.20 Early days yet but IMO thats very easy money! Obviously best to wait and see what sort of team Southland name, but come Tuesday they will be the weakest team the Lions will have faced. They are a NZ NPC 1st Div side, and from memory have sat in at least the bottom 3 for the last 3 seasons. Southland is for those who dont know at the Southern tip of NZs South Island. In Rugby terms basically the coldest most miserable conditions to play Rugby in in NZ. Gona place 5 units on Lions to win by 13+ now, as not many bookies come out with this option and I can only see the odds shortening on the NZ TAB. Low odds but as good as a certainty IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 19, 2005 Share Posted June 19, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Both teams: British and Irish Lions: Murphy; Cueto, Smith, Henson, Hickie; O'Gara, Cooper; Stevens, Titterell, Hayes; Shaw, O'Callaghan; Moody, Williams, Owen. Replacements: Bulloch, Sheridan, Easterby, Cusiter, Hodgson, Shanklin, D'Arcy Southland: Wilson; Harrison, Milne, Muliaina, Lotawa; Apanui, Cowan; Miller, T-Pole, Tamariki; Quate, Macdonald; Dempsey, Rutledge, Dermody (capt). Replacements: Murch, Hall, Logan, Wright, Clarke, Petre, Te Whare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted June 19, 2005 Share Posted June 19, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) from the bbc "Gavin Henson has been ruled out of the first Lions Test against New Zealand after being selected to face Southland on Tuesday. Lions coach Sir Clive Woodward said any player selected to play on Tuesday would not be picked for the first Test. There must now be a strong chance that Jonny Wilkinson will fill the number 12 shirt against New Zealand on 25 June, with Stephen Jones at fly-half." For woodentop to make this decision after praising the inform Welshmen yesterday suggests that his preference for his english mates overrules his rugby brain. I am sure that the AB management are happy about this decision, the fans tend to remember Wilko at his best from the last world cup. I realise that my biased nature [ the welsh chip on my shoulder] is coming out in these comments. There is no handicap mark out yet on the Southland game -some of experts could help here - Pie any educated guess? The weather could be a large influencing factor here - in the Otago match the weather appeared favourable. If the handicap is high 30+ and weather pooor it could be worth going with the home team or could we have a large score from the second string Lions with a point to prove Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 19, 2005 Share Posted June 19, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Betfair have handicap markets for Southland +28.5, 38.5 and 50.5 but there is no liquidity at the mo. You can back the Lions -38.5 at 1.64 Forecast for Invercargill on Tuesday is 50f and showers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 20, 2005 Author Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Heres some stats on Southland: Last years NPC results: Waikato v Southland 52-23 Southland v Taranaki 16-48 Southland v Northland 54-26 (their only win coming against last years winless team) Otago v Southland 27-10 North Harbour v Southland 35-16 Canterbury v Southland 52-13 Southland v Auckland 22-30 Bay of Plenty v Southland 38-20 Southland v Wellington 0-30 They finished 2nd last of 10 teams in NZs NPC 1st Division. Andd as we can see of their 8 losses, their average lossing margian was about 24. In general Southland is an Otago style team but just not on the same level. They tend to try and grind it out in the forwards, with not a great deal of class in the backs. Even if they did though, their forwards rarely match up with their opposition, hence their backs are usually starting on the back foot, with untidy ball. In recent years they have been struggling even more, as professional rugby in NZ if youre not in 1 of the 5 main centers for rugby then your chances of S12 selection are limited. Hence many Southland players find new homes, more often than not up the road in Otago, and year in year out their team is regularly disrupted by personal changes. Heres the team they have named for Tuesday. Southland: James Wilson, Mana Harrison, Bryan Milne, Faolua Muliaina, Watisoni Lotawa, Richard Apanui, Jimmy Cowan, Paul Miller, Hale T-Pole, Hua Tamariki, Daniel Quate, Hoani Macdonald, Aarron Dempsey, Jason Rutledge, Clarke Dermody (captain). Reserves: Jayden Murch, David Hall, Rees Logan, Jeff Wright, Adam Clarke, Matt Petre, Pehi Te Whare. The noteable names in their squad are, Paul Miller, who the Lions should know a lot about. Had a very good S12 season with the Highlanders, and is the key for Southland going forward, as he is arguably NZs toughest man to put down. Jimmy Cowan is a good half back, has played for the ABs and was a trialist this year. Hes a tough little guy, and annother key player bound to be targeted by the Lions Loosies Other wise theres not many big names there. Hale T-Pole is a solid blind side, Dermonty has recovered form injury to captain the side at prop and is annother tough campainer, while Rchard Apuni has come back from a season in France to play at 10. 2nd 5 Faolu Muliaina may seem familiar as he is AB Mills Muliainas older brother. Theres a few names Ive never heard of, and theres some guys there that have been around the NZ rugby scene for quite a while but have never made it to the next level. All up there are 6 guys with S12 experience but really only Cowan and Miller are at S12 level, and even they have been in and out of selection over the years. Overall this willl be the Lions easiest opposition so far. Southland are however a long time NZ NPC 1st division side and they will play with as much pride, or more, than all the teams the Lions have faced thus far. I would predict Lions easily by at least 25. With a points start set at around the 32 - 33 mark. For placing bets, I guess we wait and see what lines bookies chose to come out with, but I would be hesistant to back Southland. If anything I believe they will be far more likely to cover the half time margian, what ever it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) I'm convinced there's some major kidology about this Henson business. Woodward's blanket statement that no .v. Southland Lions would play the test need not have been said so clearly. And Henson's quote sounds very rehearsed. I think he'll play Tuesday. Then I suspect their will be an 'injury niggle' in training to Greenwood. Henson comes into the Test squad as 'cover'. Then is named. Yeah this is a bit far-fetched as you'd want Henson in training in Christchrch throughout this week... but I just sniff a rat in all this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Stan James go Lions -14 Lions tomorrow at half-time. And -34 overall. Can't get very excited about this. Bring on Saturday! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) edit... +14 and +34 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Only the Daily Mirror (UK) mentions the 'Henson Conspiracy Theory' I hatch above. In italics their words at the end. Sorry it doesn't lead to betting insights one way or the other. "I've seen enough of Gavin Henson to be certain that if he's given enough ball, he'll make the big plays that open up the New Zealand defence," former Lion Jeremy Guscott wrote yesterday. "To play Jonny at centre is an option, but it is the wrong one. Wilkinson does not possess the attacking threat of Henson in the centre while his right shoulder, it seems to me, is still suspect and that would be more exposed if he was playing at inside-centre." It could be this is a bluff designed to mess up All Black planning. After all, Woodward was not scheduled to name his line-up until Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 20, 2005 Author Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) I have to agree, it does seem to be suspicious. I tell u what though, if it is the case, its pretty deperate. Back to the game though. Although I said the half time margian might be the better option for Southland backers, I think if its gona be set that low, then in running betting would be the safer option. Ive been betting in running with SJ the whole tour, and they have very much tended to favour the Lions. Hind sights a wonderful thing, but, in all but the Taranaki game, the value has clearly been with backing against the Lions. Im not saying it will be the case again, but on the chance the Lions get out to a flyer (for once), it does look to be a much safer way to play it. On the other hand once more books come out, if shopping around were to uncover a 17.5 HT margian or better, that might be worth a look. For me though at this stage Im gona stick with my origional play. Lions 13+ All ready in now from $1.20 to $1.12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citizen Kane Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Can't find any value in this game that interests me. Centrebet has the F/T margin @ 30.5 and H/T margin @ 12.5 - about right in my opinion. Agree with Brookes in that the Lions could run away with it on a fine night or not. Hard to get a line on the Lions motivation - even if some players have a point to prove e.g. Henson what really will it mean if he has a blinder against Southland ? Not much to me anyway. Definitely leaving this game alone. Roll on the first test. Cheers CK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Bet365 go 1.90 lions -34.5, while I'm sure the lions will win against one of the poorest npc teams, I'm not sure they'll beat the spread. I might have a small middle for interest, as the game as one live on three. But like everyone one I'm waiting on saturday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Lions have been struggling to cover the spread so far. I'm having a dabble on the exchanges on Southlands +38.5 at 1.68. Not a great price, but they should manage that against the ressies.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 20, 2005 Share Posted June 20, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) I've taken Southland, +34.5 at 1.83. Mainly because of the weather forecast this morning. There is going to be a high south westerly wind and bad weather in Invercargil from about 7:00pm tonight. I think this will lead to a lower scoring game (more kicks being missed in high winds, passes going astray etc), this should reduce the chances of the lions covering the spread, and 1.83 looks good value to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Lions have been struggling to cover the spread so far. I'm having a dabble on the exchanges on Southlands +38.5 at 1.68. Not a great price, but they should manage that against the ressies. looking ominous 10-0 to Lions already Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) that was quite simply a woeful first half performance by the Lions. 10-3 to Lions at half-time, and Southland have missed a couple of pens (O'Gara missed a pen from the half-way line). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) 47 mins, 10 - 10 converted try for Southland,Lions only have half an hour to score 35 points to beat my bet. Feeling quite good so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 21, 2005 Author Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Me on the other hand not feeling so good. need lions to win by 13 or more. At some point am going to have to put a cover bet on, which is not something u want to do when on odds of $1.20. Just lucky SJ eternaly continues to give value in running backing aginnst the Lions. 17 - 10 Lions as I write. PS at -23 SJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) 10 - 17 now, converted lions try Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 21, 2005 Author Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) 2 units in running @ +22 $2 SJ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 21, 2005 Author Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Cut my losses 2 units +14 Southland @ $2 1/2 unit exact margain 14 @ $7.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) 23-13 to Lions with 15 mins to go. Just need another try for rowdy. Fools and I sitting pretty I think:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 21, 2005 Author Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Final score 26 - 16 Lions, An absolute shocker by me! Managed to salvage a little, but it just blows me away how much the Lions continue to struggle. I guess this tour is proving both how strong NZ provincial rugby still is, despite professionalism taking the players off shore, but in particular how bad these Lions boys are playing. On to the tests. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 21, 2005 Author Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) Also, again hind site, but just to reiterate. There continues to be a word of value on in running with SJ for those who want to bet against the Lions. The margian at one stag was out to +40, at HT was +29 and even when Southland were right in it, it never dropped below +14 before the close on 70 minutes. Aslo after now not covering in 5 of 6 at full time and 6 of 6 at half time. There could well be value in finally the Lions covering when they play Manawatu next week. You can garauntee many bookies wont know a great deal about this team, and might over compensate for their misjudgements thus far. Keep an eye out on the PS, the Lions should cover at least 60 without a problem IMO as long as its not bucketing down. Or maybe Im a sucker for thinking these guys can score points. mmmm wait and see I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) I think we all did ok in the end tonight, at least none of us lost. I couldn't see the lions reserve team covering a huge points spread in the far south, on mid winters day, in high winds. I think it'll be tight on saturday though, may look for a price on lions +8, I'd be tempted at around evens Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted June 21, 2005 Share Posted June 21, 2005 Re: Southland v Lions (Tuesday) a poor performance from the Lions yet again- this time against one of the poorer sides. the big win has to be next midweek match against a poorer side from what i've read on the silver fern website. foolsgold - betfair are offering lions +8.5 @2.06 I still fancy the all blacks myself - need to have an handicap over lions+12 to even tempt me. can't wait till saturday cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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