The 10 year stretch

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

A lot of us in the gambling game have a dream to become rich. We like the idea of living of our profits from gambling and not needing to work. One usual downfall to this is usually wanting too much too quick. Id like to try an idea Ive been toying with for a while which may seem like a dream but , to me at least, its a more realistic chance of achieving the dream. This isnt a get rich scheme, its a long term project, hence the name of the thread. The idea involves a huge amount of discipline and the higher the strikerate the better. Here it is:- You start with a bank of 1000pts. The target is to achieve a 2% profit each week(20 pts). This can be done by any means, 40pts @ 1/2, two 20pts@ 1/2, 20pts @ EVS etc. 2% a week is a rough guideline, some weeks may be more, some less. Its a guideline to keep roughly on track. 50 weeks @ 2% profit = 100% = bank doubled. This then gives you 2000pts going into year 2 where the same procedure is used. The figures would be as follows: Y1 = 2000 Y2 = 4000 Y3 = 8000 Y4 = 16000 Y5 = 32000 Y6 = 64000 Y7 = 125000 Y8 = 250000 Y9 = 500000 Y10 = 1000000 Ok Ok. It may be unrealistic to believe you could get to stage 10 and become a millionaire. I think the idea is rather sound though. If able to apply enough discipline you should be able to seek out 1 or 2 bets a week to fill the criteria. Chelsea at home @ 1/5 with Celtic away @ 1/5. 4% of bank on the double almost does you for the week. Its a matter of viewing all your opportunities at the start of the week(or as much as poss.) and picking out the 1 or 2 bets that have the best chance of achieving your goal. As I said, going to stage 10 may be a dream but getting to the latter stages should be possible. Say your in year 7 and working with a 64,000pt bank. 2% of 64,000 is 1280pts. A bet @ 1/2 would need a 2560pt stake. You may not get this on in one bookies but spread between a few shops or internet accounts it should be possible. Even if things do become a problem at this stage , hey, Ive still made 64000pts. The key to this working will be high discipline and patience. Being happy with making the 2% each week and not trying to rush things. Im only 24. If by some miracle I made it to stage 10 Id be a millionaire by 34. If someone came upto be and told me that Id be over the frigging moon so in the long run 10 years isnt all that. What do people reckon? Ignore the stage 10 of 1000000pts. Im after comments on the slow drip idea of it and being patient. Things might become a bit sticky oif you hit a bad patch as a high strikerate would be best if using a small profile of bets. Do people think something like this would be possible though if being selective and applying the right discipline and attitude?

[swooperman]

Re: The 10 year stretch Looks good to me, in fact I'd say it looks one of the sounder ones Ive seen. You need strict discipline though, & not spending the money as you go through would certainly be a problem for me......& it could be earning interest in a bank account ;)

[libi71]

Re: The 10 year stretch Obviously, the being patient part is the soundest piece of advice to give anybody in money matters, be it gambling or investing. And funny enough, most people don't realise that you "only" need to double an initial investment of 1 buck (whatever currency) 20 times to become a millionair (thus, starting with 1000, it only takes you 10 times as in your example). Where I see a potential problem is your reliance on a high strike rate. This will have to be balanced carefully, because by reducing the number of bets (even if they are more "safe"), you are increasing your overall risk (this is why portfolio manager advise you to put your money in fonds or widespread allocation of different assets). So, by trying to decrease your risk and exposure, you might actually increase it. I haven't thought it through, but I guess you could find a good middleline. As you stated, I would not worry about the later stages and the technical difficulties then, if you made it to stage 6 or 7, you will maybe find that more conventional investment opportunities might be better suited at that time. Will be interested to follow you. And by the way, once you hit stage 4 or 5, drop me a pm, I will send you my money to invest :rollin

[libi71]

Re: The 10 year stretch Just 1 additions: - you can hugely reduce the number of years you need, if you are able and willing to invest more money upfront. Obviously the first years yield the least contribution. So for 8000 you could buy yourself 3 years (don't know if this is possible for you). If I myself was confident enough I could achieve the 2% yield, I would put all my spare money into this and buy as much time as possible

[ian3012]

Re: The 10 year stretch interesting thread wfte.... i started gambling, (pretty much full-time, as i'm 42 and only work 2 days a week) in february this year. i'm a new gambler so know nothing about it really.... but i know how to run a business, and i don't see too many differences so far. a lot of your plan has made me realise where i went wrong initially.:clap an assumption i made was wrong...because i have played, and feel i know a lot about a fair few sports... i would be good at gambling on them. that turned out to be crap!... now i think you need to know more about gambling than sports... i pretty much had the same idea as you.... but had no time scale or money goal, i just wanted to make a couple of hundred a week really. i've learnt a lot these 18 weeks.... i started with a bank at your year 2 level.... doubled it in a month, and then lost it all but 200 quid a month later.... the last 3 months have been better, as we speak i'm -800, so making a good recovery. but still down obviously! i plan now to get back level..... (which, now i'm showing more discipline, i'm confident of doing pretty soon).... then start a plan pretty much like yours.... because i think you do need to have targets.:ok i've looked around the lounge at different systems and from what i can see, the best way of achieving success, is lumping on short priced '2 horse races' i.e. football or tennis for example. i also think this has to be done on an exchange... so that you can lock in a profit and also to cut a loss if need be. i feel you've got as good a chance as any of doing this... working in a bookies must be a real eye-opener... so you have an edge already. you do show incredible discipline in your threads... but translating that into pound notes is not easy. here's why i think you'll struggle..... you're 24.... i wouldn't have had the required discipline at your age... you only need a pair of big tits or a shiny new car to come along, and it's all over... distractions are difficult to ignore the younger you are. i think the start level is too low for 2% weekly growth... if you don't respect the amount of money you could lose... you could become blase about it... (this was my problem... i thought i was an expert after a month and started greedily lumping on anything:o ) i.e. lets say you go for 6 months (starting with 1000) making the req'd 20 per week.... it's just not happening is it?...460 for all that hard work!... anyone is gonna go for more now and again.... you will lose patience mate for sure. but this is where i think you can beat the system wfte.... because i think you are an experienced enough gambler to spot safer bets. if you set your weekly target a little higher, say 5% weekly, your 1000 will increase to 3500 in a year.... at the end of year 2 you'll be at 12250...:dude now this is a sum i would have a lot of respect for... and i would certainly fear losing it. (my problem would be "am i a good enough gambler to increase it?:lol ) if you get to a five figure bank inside 2 years,then decrease your weekly req't to 2%... never risking more than 2% of your bank on any bet, i think you will make it mate. there's a good reason for this... 'it's easy to make money when you have money' i'm starting with the new premiership season at this.... and i'll probably bust by xmas:( .... but good luck to you, cos i think you can do it.:hope

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: The 10 year stretch Thanks for the comments so far guys. Woh Ian , what a post! :loon

you're 24.... i wouldn't have had the required discipline at your age... you only need a pair of big tits or a shiny new car to come along, and it's all over... distractions are difficult to ignore the younger you are.

Car shouldnt be a problem as I dont drive. Pair of big tits........I bloody wish!! Only pair of big tits I get anywhere near is my own! I agree with the relevance of money being won/lost. This again will just be another test of discipline. Whereas £20 a week winnings doesnt mean loads to me, a £1000 starting bank does. Id consider skipping a level or two if I could but £1000 is about all I could afford to start with, at the moment anyway.

you do show incredible discipline in your threads... but translating that into pound notes is not easy.

but this is where i think you can beat the system wfte.... because i think you are an experienced enough gambler to spot safer bets.

Thanks man, Im touched. Nice to know Im appreciated.

[ian3012]

Re: The 10 year stretch wfte... just for the record,i wasn't decrying your 1000 starting point.... but what i'm saying is i feel you need to get to 5 figures quickly for this to work... hence a bigger weekly target percentage... if you don't achieve this inside 2 years... well you're just going to get pissed off tbh, cos the slow progression won't seem worth the effort imo. once you hit 5 figures, you will have the feeling that you're a serious player, and also have the fear of losing, and this is the key imo, because the fear will reinforce your discipline. oh. btw... the tits will come along... and you will get distracted sooner or later.... we all do.:lol

[dave]

Re: The 10 year stretch

here's why i think you'll struggle..... you're 24

Good post ian, but that part is ridiculous. Some of the best and most disciplined punters on here are young. I don't see why WFTE being 24 is relevant.

[swooperman]

Re: The 10 year stretch Now why would you be disagreeing with that bit then, Dave ?? ;)

[dave]

Re: The 10 year stretch Nothing to do with my age Swoop (although I would say that I'm about as disciplined as you can get), but one thing you notice on here is that some of the best punters are young and some of the worst are older.. Of course some of the worst are also young, and the best older, but the point is you can't generalise by age. Discipline is about character not age.

[slapdash]

Re: The 10 year stretch Interesting thread, WFTE. I'm not anywhere near the millionaire mark (yet?), but I've been trying to build up a sizeable sum from betting along the lines you outline. If you're eventually betting big amounts, there are psychological factors that come into play. As Ian says, you want it to matter if you lose, so you stay disciplined. But on the other hand, you don't want to be scared of losing, because sometimes you will, and if that hurts then you will get stressed and overcautious. My method is to strictly keep a betting bank, which I keep completely separate from my other savings. If I lost it all, I'd be pissed off, but it wouldn't ruin my life. I try not to think of this as "money", but more like points in a game. I have a strong competitive streak, so even thinking of it as a game, I really want to win. But I've had bad weekends where I've lost more than a month's salary, and it hasn't affected me much more than a bad beat playing poker. I have various strategies and sources of bets, and I find it helps to bet a fixed percentage of my bank on a given kind of bet, as that eliminates one source of stress -- deciding how much to bet. Mostly I bet 2% of my bank, but some kinds of bet that I have high confidence in I'll bet 5%, and if I'm trying something out I'll bet less than 2%. But I'll periodically reassess what percentage I should be betting on a given kind of bet. One thing I was initially bad at, but I'm getting better, is ditching an idea when it stops working: if something earned you some money to start with, but eventually loses, it's very tempting to let the initial success outweigh the losses and to hope it will turn around. I'm not sure about your extreme selectivity idea (a couple of bets a week). I'm sure it's right to stick to bets you have long-term confidence in, but in my experience it's hard to narrow them down this much. Being too selective puts all your eggs in one basket, and risks the danger that the basket you choose has just been lucky so far. If you have several baskets, that risk is reduced. Finally, if you're looking to build up your stakes, it must be worth considering what markets you play in. If you become an expert on second division Slovakian football matches, or betting on horses at early prices offered by one or two bookies (my speciality at present), or betting on the Eurovision Song Contest, then you are never going to be able to bet large amounts. American sports (NBA, MLB, ...) seem most promising, as there are several bookies catering to the US market who will take large bets. So if you can turn around your baseball system to get back to the returns you achieved last season, that must be the way to go.

[spreadman]

Re: The 10 year stretch Good luck, WFTE, as you can see, you will get the full support of fellow PL'ers, for your ambitious plan, and in my short time here I have found the pl to be a rich vein of expert's knowledge, ready for you to tap in to. I try to help my fellow pl'ers, as do we all, but there's not much to add to the advice already given, and, whilst I am far from an authority on betting, (I can hear the keyboards tapping away in agreement, as the new posts launch into hyperspace and insults to Mr. Spreadman proliferate this thread!), may I humbly offer a little advice, or maybe, recount personal experience in the long journey to the far distant goals we set ourselves.... I too have set myself a more modest target, - enough to put a little sustenance on the table, pay the odd bill etc., and so through necessity have had to cobble together a few rough and ready 'learn as you go' rules, for want of a better description. The most lmportant thing, (apart from winning bets!), is self discipline, mentioned by Ian. Try and 'specialise' in one area, and quickly become an 'expert' on it. Gather as much information each day on it. Keep accurate records, of your losses, not just your wins! Regularly review your thoughts...keep a diary if it helps. Read the relevant threads on the Pl. - Punters are always ready to give opinions, so ask if you don't know about something. Be positive, don't dwell on your losses, treat it as a game, look forward to the next bet, learn from your mistakes. Be UNEMOTIONAL,... with your bets, that is. Capital letters for that one... it's that important. We are 'only' human. Well, most of us. Apart from the odd demi-god like ace tipsters.....Mr.Sl., Mr.O, I won't embarrass them by naming names, but they know who they are. ( :notworthy ) We will make wrong decisions, miss out on outsiders that weren't, back dead certs that weren't. Just keep that positive mental attitude, and a photo of one million spondoolicks on your fridge door as a constant incentive. You give an example of betting on short odds soccer matches - you could do a lot worse - the stats prove that backing short odds favs. is more profitable, (loses less!), than backing long shot soccer teams. Notice my positive stance, there?!! Hope you don't think I am talking out of line here...won't be the first time I tried to teach gran to suck eggs..... Finally, (sighs of relief all round!), - stick at it. It will take a long time, longer maybe than you expect, so be patient, big buzzumbas don't stop you making that bet, boy! Oh, yes....and don't bet on one eyed ladies or three legged horses.....:D Good luck, Mr.WFTE, :hope :ok

[spreadman]

Re: The 10 year stretch Beat me to it, mr. Slapdash! Hope you don't think I was copying your post... it's a bit uncanny, though.... (Cue outer limits music.........)

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: The 10 year stretch Cheers for all the comments guys. As far as staleness and money goes, if I go ahead with this it will be with a specific bank. I will literally write off 1000 and this will be used for the sole purpose of this venture. I will still make other bets with different funds so I wont get the urge to make wild bets that arent suitable. It also means I wont be using money I need to live off. I agree that the selective bet process could be a problem. This is the hardest part Ive been considering. I the selection process is good enough then all should be ok. I know even the best researched bets can go wrong but betting many bets and hoping overall they make your profit seems to random to me. For something of this nature anyway. Thanks for all the positive notes. I was half expecting posts telling me I was mad and I didnt stand a chance. All pointers and advice has been greatly recieved and taken on board. I dont quite know when Ill be starting this(if I do) but you lot will be the first guys to know and if both you and I can stick it out then Ill share the whole experience here too. Posting my bets live will help keep me on the straight and narrow. I know otherwise Ill place a bet and if it loses Ill be tempted to go "Nah,**** it, that werent a system bet" and not count it. I wont be able to do that if Ive told everyone on here about it already.

[investor]

Re: The 10 year stretch WFTE, Nice to see an ambitious young man! However, I must caution you that there is a difference between paperwork and the real world. Your biggest roadblock to achieving your goal will be to find a profitable selection method. Even if you muster that, you may not be able to implement it for as long as you are planning to. I will work through an example to show you what I mean. You are starting with a 1000 point bank, shooting for a 20 point profit in the beginning. Say you have found a method whereby you can achieve a 10% profit rate (yield). This in itself will be very difficult to do, but let's say you did manage to develop this fantastic money-earner. Assume two bets per week, meaning that you are looking to clear 10 points with each. Which in turn means you are investing 100 points on both bets (for 10% expected profit). This represents 10% of your bank, and this looks like a very risky proposition to me. If you are sticking to the same level of stakes, i.e. always 100 points regardless of your bank size, a series of LLLLWLLLLWLLLL will wipe you out in 7 weeks (assuming evens shots). If you are proportionally betting (which is what you imply), such a series will cut your bank to roughly a third of its original size, meaning you lose about a year of growth in 7 weeks' time (by the way, your expected growth rate is 2.8 times per year and not double). Will you still keep betting after such an unfortunate run? How can you be sure that your method is still working? Even if we assume that you have achieved your plan for a full year of betting, what do you have? You have made roughly 100 bets, won 55 and lost 45 of them (again assuming evens shots). Is this guarantee that you can continue winning for the next 9 years? A simple chi-square test says there is a 32% probability that your results were due to chance. In science, a 5% confidence level is typically required to say that a set of results is truly different from another set. In your case, there would still be a fairly high likelihood that you just had a lucky run. What if in your second year you lose 2/3 of your bank? Will you still keep betting? I do not want to discourage you at all. One thing most of us share here is ambitious plans such as yours. You not only need discipline in your betting but discipline in setting realistic expectations and discipline in painting a real picture, as well. There are many pitfalls along the way, and the earlier you prepare yourself for them the better your chances will be for making it long term. So think about all this ahead of time, and try to devise ways for overcoming the roadblocks. Be realistic about the various factors affecting your plan. Having said that, I wish you good luck with this, and would be interested in how you are making out.

[WorkingForTheEnemy]

Re: The 10 year stretch Thanks Investor. I undertsnad your concerns, thats why Im only prepared to start with a 1000 bank. Its high enough to not add too many extra stages to the process but is just about an amount Im prepared to write off.As Ive said before, the bank for this is going to be for this and this alone so as far as Im concerned I am writing off the 1000. That way if the worst comes to the worst Ive given it a go but lost no more than I was prepared to.

(by the way, your expected growth rate is 2.8 times per year and not double).

Is this worked by making 2% of the current bank, adjusting after each bet? Im aiming at making 2% of the bank and only readjusting the figure after each stage. ie. 20pts for year 1, 40 pts for year 2.

[investor]

Re: The 10 year stretch

... the bank for this is going to be for this and this alone so as far as Im concerned I am writing off the 1000. That way if the worst comes to the worst Ive given it a go but lost no more than I was prepared to.

A commandable attitude. Of course, you could even work this on paper for the first year, potentially saving you the thousand.

Is this worked by making 2% of the current bank, adjusting after each bet?

Adjusting once a week: 1.02^52=2.80.

Im aiming at making 2% of the bank and only readjusting the figure after each stage. ie. 20pts for year 1, 40 pts for year 2.

I strongly recommend that you use proportional staking, i.e. adjust your bet size frequently (ideally after each bet). The gambler's biggest enemy is the gambler's ruin. Proportional stakes lower the risk of ruin. You should really adapt some kind of fractional Kelly strategy for this to maximise growth and minimise risk at the same time.

[slapdash]

Re: The 10 year stretch I agree with everything that investor says. The potential problem with keeping your stake fixed for long periods irrespective of your results is not so much that you won't be maximizing your growth while you're winning (although you won't), but that it can be very dangerous when you have a bad spell if you don't reduce your stake when your bank drops, as the stake will become a much larger proportion of your current bank. As investor suggests, I use a kind of fractional Kelly strategy. The Kelly formula gives the optimal percentage of your bank to bet based on expected yield and the price available. The hard part of applying this is knowing what the expected yield is, so it makes sense to be somewhat conservative. I'll bet between 10% and 50% of the Kelly amount based on my best estimate of the expected yield, depending on how confident I am of the estimate, and I have to be pretty damn confident to bet as much as 50%. I also have an absolute maximum bet of 5% of my current bank, as otherwise I could wipe out a large proportion of my bank very quickly if it turned out I'd got the estimate of the yield very wrong, which could happen if circumstances change (e.g., a system that has worked for a long time could stop working because of bookies changing their strategy of setting odds, or because of changes in the rules of a sport or the way it's played) and I want to give myself time to realize that things have changed before I wipe out most of my bank. Of course, I don't go through a complicated calculation every time I place a bet. I'll know that my stake for a particular kind of bet is 1% or 2% or 5% or whatever, and periodically update my estimate of the yield and hence my percentage stake.