Premier League > April 9/10

[andrewcalo]

On 4/8/2016, 10:54:44, allthethings said:

We may see, but we won't know what seeing home sides win more matches means. Palace, Southampton, Man City, Liverpool and Spurs could all win at home this week, and West Ham or Watford could be the sixth, and it would not show reversion to the mean, or whatever. It would more likely mean that the schedule is friendly to home sides this week, as it typically is.

One more thing...I study underdogs, and traditionally the last six weeks of the Premier League season have few upsets, with one exception: away dogs in the range of 5.0 to 5.99 significantly outperform their season average, and by the way, week 36 is when they have typically done the most damage. At other ranges, the upset wins are very rare. Away dogs of better than 8.0 do about 1 to 2 percent better than the 10% season average...so, you know, Norwich can win at Man City at a key moment, but usually it's Arsenal or Man U or Chelsea away winning out. We'll see whether Leicester and Spurs can do the same.

This is pretty much spot-on.

btw - with 6 wins a week for the home teams, and a couple 7 or 8, we hit 44% for the season.

Think of the season as one thing, composed of 380 separate games - not each individual game on its own. Feedback is really important here ,and it links all those games together...

"A feedback loop is a common and powerful tool when designing a control system.Feedback loops take the system output into consideration, which enables the system to adjust its performance to meet a desired output response."