Pie-chucker Posted June 16, 2005 Share Posted June 16, 2005 Woodward is running out a 'mid-week' side on Saturday. Geordan Murphy (Ireland), Denis Hickie (Ireland), Will Greenwood (England, vice-captain), Gordan D'Arcy (Ireland), Shane Williams (Wales), Charlie Hodgson (England), Chris Cusiter (Scotland), Ryan Jones (Wales), Martyn Williams (Wales), Lewis Moody (England), Donncha O'Callaghan (Ireland), Simon Shaw (England), Matt Stevens (England) Gordon Bulloch (Scotland, captain, Graham Rowntree (England). Reserves: Steve Thompson (England), Andy Sheridan (England), Danny Grewcock (England), Simon Easterby (Wales), Matt Dawson (England), Ollie Smith (England), Ronan O'Gara (Ireland) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 16, 2005 Share Posted June 16, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Otago's named their team too: Otago: 15. Glen Horton, 14. Hayden Pedersen, 13. Neil Brew, 12. Seilala Mapusua, 11. Matt Saunders, 10. Nick Evans, 9. Danny Lee, 8. Grant Webb, 7. Josh Blackie, 6. Craig Newby (capt), 5. Tom Donnelly, 4. Filipo Levi, 3. Craig Dunlea, 2. Jason Macdonald, 1. Carl Hoeft. Res: 16. Jed Vercoe, 17. Jeremy Aldworth, 18. Andrew McClintock, 19. Alando Soakai, 20. Chris Smylie, 21. Ryan Bambry, 22. Jason Shoemark They will be missing Ryan, Hayman, and Oliver (all not released from AB camp) Hoeft has been released though. Otherwise its basically the Highlanders Super 12 side. Paul Miller at 8 isnt there as he's a Southland representative, but his replacement Webb, has a bit of S12 experience, and will be a good replacement. Tuitivake, and Ben Blair were both loan players ths year for the Highlanders so they too are out. Theyll miss the goal kicking of Blair without a doubt, but Horton should be pretty good cover. Neil Brew is also a solid player, theyll loose some attacking flair without Tuitivake though. Their front row and reserve bench, look pretty weak, but other than that, they look to have named a good team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 16, 2005 Share Posted June 16, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday thanks rowdy. Otago are 8.8 and the Lions 1.14. If as looks it's a reserve Lions side vs. a decent Otago side a small lay of the Lions could be on the cards here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 16, 2005 Share Posted June 16, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Otago out to 9.2. Some interesting comments about predictions for the game on a NZ rugbywebsite. I've had a small lay of the Lions on Berfair, and taken Otago +16 on BlueSq Otago by 5, we hammer them in the forwards and they lose the plot aka the Maori game. Mapusua a rock at second five. The team: Otago: Glen Horton, Hayden Pedersen, Neil Brew, Seilala Mapusua, Matt Saunders, Nick Evans, Danny Lee, Grant Webb, Josh Blackie, Craig Newby (capt), Tom Donnelly, Filipo Levi, Craig Dunlea, Jason Macdonald, Carl Hoeft. Res: Jed Vercoe, Jeremy Aldworth, Andrew McClintock, Alando Soakai, Chris Smylie, Ryan Bambry, Jason Shoemark. Looks pretty solid after all Those players are all quality and I get the feeling Brew will step up for this one, especially alonside mappo... and he's got an above average workrate. His Super 12 was average, but has done nothing critically wrong - good enough to pressure O'Dricky for the first 40 anyway Solid backline in comparison to what the Lions just put out. These guys (most of them) have played together consistently this year in Super12. Given the Otago games this weekend, you'd imagine that the Lions team will be their 2nd stringers- since last nights game was close to what they'll run out with. A couple of the late arrivers maybe to get a game. Forwards - look (at least on paper) a better unit than Wellington. But missing a couple of key heads in the front row. Would think that front row would be at least equal to Wellingtons and the back three look as good if not a little more experience. So ............ - Otage look across the board to have a better team on paper than Wellington did. - You would imagine that the Lions will anounce a team that looks on paper weaker than what they just put out. Which leads to: - A pretty tight game. Expect it to be closer than last nights. - More possession to the home team than last night and with a better back division to use it. Should test the Lions back defense - which would have SCW happy. - Close call I'll say. Otago just (but haven't seen the Lions team yet) - Most of the Lions team will bleat at some stage to the ref. That side has far more S12 experiecne behind it that the Welly boys, and as far as i know they wont be bringing the bus driver onto the field with thim either. Decent side and out of the NPC team so far definatly has the most S12 caps but i guess thats also to do with the lack of S12 quality players at the start of this yrs S12, everyone wrote them off then so i'm doing it again, by at least 10 points. Predictions? I'm going to be ****ing cold in the Rose Stand - particularly if a southerly comes up. I'm hoping the front row (surprised at Dunlea's inclusion after Aldworth went alright in the NPC) will hold their own, with a couple of handy, powerful locks in Levi and Donnelly in behind them. Tough to fault that back row with Webb starting to realise the potential he's had for years. As usual, I hope our size in the outside backs doesn't get exploited. If the Lions team is considerably weaker than last night's I'd say Lions by no more than 10. On the first page I predicted Lions by 20 - I reduce that to 10 having seen the magnificent Brew in the Otago line-up. Actually Otago should go OK - at least they might actually have a game plan. Have just backed Otago outright at 7.25 thru my Sydney bookie..and got a 20 point start off a pommy workmate..easy cash..he gave me 23 points start against those shite Wellingtonians..almost wasn't enough,and this Otago teams way better than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted June 16, 2005 Share Posted June 16, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday very interesting Matty - it sounds as if this website thinks that Otago are a better side than Welllington.This Saturday's side is definately second string and if Otago are better than Wellington, I believe that Otago +18 will therfore be a good bet BUT weather was an important factor on Wednesday. IMO a good bet is the Otago +8 at h.t.@2.0 with bet365. What was that website Matty ? all the best Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 16, 2005 Share Posted June 16, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Im not saying I disagree with much of what has been quoted from the NZ Rugby forum. However, be very careful when listening to patriotic NZ rugby fans. They might be spot on, I just think they sound a little too over confident. Comparing this game to the Wellington one, might provide a little insite, but remember if it wasnt for the weather chances are the Lions would have run away with that one pretty easily. At those odds and P/S I doubt Ill be backing the Lions, however, I guess my point is for those who are placing bets, purely based on whats been said on this forum, be a little cautious. It does look to be a good Otago team, probably better on paper than the Wellingotn side. But its also a pretty similar team to the one that fell away pretty sharply in the second half of the S12, a team with a pretty much untested front row, and quite likely one that will struggle to score through their backs. Whats said above is correct, as always, if they can match and muscle up in the forwards then theyll stay in touch. All NZ teams have done that so far, so maybe no reason to suggest they wont tomorrow either!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday This appears to be a weaker lions team than wednesday, and a stronger NPC team playing them. For this reason I've taken Otago +17.5 @ 1.90 on bet365. Also it's bloody cold down there, and most of the lions players must know that they are unlikely to feature in the test team. What's the motivation for them at this stage? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday I have to admit going on the form of both the NZ sides and the Lions to this point, the PS does seem to favour Otago. Weather like the Wellingotn game could play a big part. Any one got the latest from down South?? The other thing that seems to be coming quite apparent is the likely hood of Game total unders, mainly due to the solid Lions defence, and there inability to score tries. Will do a search around to see what the totals are available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 17, 2005 Author Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Cantor (spread betting) have Lions at 14-17 point favourites. Thus a shade below the fixed odds firm. They go 49-52 on total points. Points conceded so far by Lions, by game, 20 - 14 - 19 - 6. The average extrapolated, and my real expectation, of Otago points would therefore be a try and 3 penalties sort of 14. Cantor go 32-35 Lions points. 16.5 -18.5 Otago points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 17, 2005 Author Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday So, conclusion to above is that there is not much room to maneouvre, except to SELL any total points quote of around 49. Weather plays big part of course, but even dry (but cold and windy) could see Lions stuttering. Yet limit Otago to one try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Lewis Moody is out and his replacement is Simon Easterby. Knee injury that hasnt improved enough in time. Michael Owen comes in to the bench. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday brookes - it's http://www.thesilverfern.com/This is interesting too Twelve years ago the wonderful men in blue and gold handed out a convincing 37-24 beating to the touring British and Irish Lions . This weekend can Otago repeat their historic victory in front of what is sure to be a hostile home crowd? I for one really hope so. Twelve years ago I have vivid recollection of waking up that morning, 7 years of age, there was something in the air that day. I stood on the terrace, screamed my lungs out for 80 glorious minutes as my heroes played the games of their lives, one and all. On paper, to the biased observer it would appear we have a real chance of a repeat this weekend. The Lions fielding perhaps not their strongest line-up and Otago fielding a side predominantly featuring Highlanders from a largely impressive Super 12 campaign. Ok so we have lost our three All Blacks and that could cost us. But their are enough players of quality and experience at high levels of the game to compete with this Lions team and beat them. These are my 3 keys to an Otago triumph: 1. Danny Lee and Nick Evans. These are two players that either are currently (Evans) or were previously (Lee) in the mix for the national 9 and 10 shirts.. They need to boss the game, Lee has many good attributes to his game he is feisty he gets stuck in, he is a competitor with a solid all round game, he can pass kick and run. He is also a leader, if he can replicate the form of the European tour of 2003, then we will have no problems here. Nick Evans is a talented young man, some of the individual tries he has scored particularly in Super 12 ooze class, he needs to prove himself as a runner of the game rather than someone who plays in flashes, he needs control. One or two moments from him may be all we need. The most important thing about this game is how these two blokes gel and therefore control the attacking game from our point of view, they must be quick in everything they do to break down an aggressive and organised Lions defence. 2. Josh Blackie. Probably 3rd in line for the All Black 7 jersey, Blackie had an astonishing start to the Super 12 this year possibly out-performing a quiet Holah for 6 weeks. As the campaign wore on though the class of Holah told and Blackie was once again relegated to 3rd in the pecking order. But at his best, he is better than all of the openside options for the Lions, where he needs to up his game though is the one area the Lions have thus far been deficient, the break down. If Blackie can slow down and steal ball, win turnovers and generally win the battle of the break down then this will be a huge part of the game for Otago.. He is quick and can also carry the ball. But the performance of Blackie on Saturday will be measured on how he fares at the breakdown against Martyn Williams, the same man Marty Holah destroyed last week. 3. The House of Pain. The city of Dunedin has already declared its intention to "paint the city blue and gold" for this weekend, and that is exactly what our boys need, the public have to inspire and intimidate. There is something about Dunedin on a big match day... The anticipation is almost too much, people buzzing in the street. Flags and banners around the place. The city and the crowd in the stadium just have to be the best they can be for their heroes, most of all everyone has to believe, just like 12 years ago, on a grey Dunedin day... Maybe lightening can strike twice, good luck my boys and COME ON......!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Have decided to put 2/10 on Otago @ $1.9 Bet365 +17. Not patriculaly confident, but it does look to be the sensible choice. Weather doesnt look good at the moment or for tomorrow, so should even things up even more. Whats been quoted above does make pretty good sense. Otago should have the advantage in both the halves and in the loose. Both crucial departments in wet weather rugby. The option Ill be looking at more closely is the total points. Just had a look at the Highlanders home night game record for this past Super 12. Here were their results: 14 - 30 Loss to Blues 16 - 16 Draw Stormers 23 - 0 Win over Bulls 19 - 18 Win over ACT 20 - 41 Loss to NSW 13 - 27 Loss to Crusaders. So as you can see, for what its worth. Only 1 occasion did the total get over 44, and only once did they fail to stay within 17points of their opposition. I think the points statisticc is pretty relavent. Add to that the fact that a good portion off those games were played in late NZ Summer early Autumn, and that S12 is regarded as the world most attacking fform of Rugby. Looks good for an under IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattyNeth Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday The weather forecast for Dunedin tomorrow is for showers in the afternoon, and a game time temp of about 46f - pretty chilly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 17, 2005 Author Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday The support, you Kiwis, you will not believe as it gets to the business middle of this tour. I\m a Pom in hong Kong, I was in Aus for last Lions tour. It's nothing to do with Barmy Army. That is cricket. There are a group of self-styled Barmies down there but the real Lions supporters will raise the roof. Neither NZ nor Aus now how to sing at a rugby game. It's not in the culture. The Mexic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 17, 2005 Author Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday the Mexican wave is. Or they inflate giant limb things when home team score. NZ chums, you will be amazed. If, if in the first test with the French ref it starts to go Lions way you will not know where you are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pie-chucker Posted June 17, 2005 Author Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday To continue this, aware it should be another thread, the away supporters, at Suncorp Brisbane first Lions test last time, took over the stadium to an extent it must have seemed to be to Aussies, an away game. Fast forward Sydney that tour. I got a bus to a mate's place from near the stadium. In the back were three Welsh blokes public transport, but all onboard had been to the game. The songs and communion were extraordinary. An Aussie sitting next to me said: " My God, what are you blokes like when you win?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday brookes - it's http://www.thesilverfern.com/This is interesting too thanks matty :ok - interesting ,but cannot see even this second string losing . Imo I can see them struggling to overcome the handicap of 17.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Citizen Kane Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 Weather Update Clear but cold. some rain this morning but cleared early. Conditions are expected to be good according to a radio report approx half an hour ago. I expect this game to be a bit of a battle. Although its 500 test caps v next to none the lions players must feel they have little hope of getting into the test team so must be questions on motivation. As per previous posts I will be going unders. 1pt 1st stoppage lineout @ 1.75 (NZTab) 1pt Otago +7.5 at halftime @ 1.85 (Centrebet) 1pt Otago +16.5 @ 1.77 (NZTab) Goodluck to all. Cheers CK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday half time at Carisbrook and the score is 13-13. the Lions have got to show some flair to win this game convincingly. Lions -17 are 4@betfair now have been over 6 at one stage cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Came down to the wire for all us Otago backers. End sore 30 - 19 to the Lions. Good Stuff guys!! After a quick look through the forum I think everyone came out ahead on that one. All posted plays came through!! From memory now, thats 4 of 5 the Lions have fialed to cover at full time, and 5 from 5 at half time (I think) Like the medias been saying, its a shame the ABs havent been playing in these provincial games. The way the Lions have been performing they would be lucky to have won more than 2 games if that were the case. I know itll all come down to the Tests but once again to reiterate what Ive said so far this tour about the Lions, it should be embarrasing for them to be run so close by in all the games theyve played so far, not to mention the Loss!! Very average tour for them so far!! Lucky they get a couple games from now on to show they do know where the try line is, but at this rate even Southland might show them a thing or two. As for my home team, The Mighty Manawatu, I cant say I have such high hopes. Well done CK, 3 from 3 tonight bro!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Well done to everyone, be interested to see the prices for the Southland game on tuesday. I'm happy with a win tonight with Otago +17.5 :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rowdy Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Once again the bookies will set a high line. In the 30s Id expect. Wait and see aye! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brookes Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 Re: Lions v Otago, Saturday Once again the bookies will set a high line. In the 30s Id expect. Wait and see aye! I would love a handicap of +30 for Southlands . AsI have prevously mentioned I know very little about the strength of the NZ sides - how do they rate in comparison to Wellington and Otago ? see you in the Southlands thread and well done to all who made some money today:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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