Good Friday Racing (Inc. AW Championships)

[BillyHills]

Covering a couple of AW races this week;

3.45 Lingfield: Middle Distance Championship

 

Verdict:

I suspect Maverick Wave will make the running here and set the race up for a late finisher. Both Grendisar and Battalion look the obvious ones to fight out the finish and I quite like the long-range tactics the Haggas team have used with Battalion. He runs best when fresh so ran him in his three qualifiers early in the AW season so they could leave him alone in the build up to this. Grendisar has been on the go and although he has been performing wit great credit those races may catch up with him now. Of the others we shouldn’t discount the French horse Metropol and Watersmeet probably represents the best value of the bigger priced horses.

Selection:

 Battalion @ 6/1 William Hill

[BillyHills]

3.15 Lingfield; Mile Championship

 

Verdict:

A cracking renewal of the Mile Championship and hard to argue with the bookies here. Both Mindurownbusiness and Sovereign Debt have solid credentials and it will be difficult to split them. If pushed I would just prefer the Roger Varian horse of the two. Big Baz will have his each way supporters at a double figure price but the one I like is the 4yo Mister Universe trained by Mark Johnston. He showed plenty of courage to out-battle Sovereign Debt last time out and is now unbeaten in two starts on the All-Weather.

Selection:

 Mister Universe @ 7/1 Bet365

[richard-westwood]

Was going to attempt a double but can't find a decent value 2nd leg so I'll stick to one ..

210 ling 

Gamgoon  99.25

Lancelot du lac  99.23

Lancelot du lac is favourite for this and its easy to see why ...ran a cracker last time and looks the type for this but gamgoon is no pushover ....last time they met 5 furlong was Lancelots distance ...gamgoon was staying on well and he looks a 6 furlong horse ...gamgoon lost by a length and quarter and is 3lbs better and on top of that Lancelot is drawn in the car park and gamgoon is drawn a perfect 4 .....price ...20/1 ?......that's my idea of a value bet so I'll have some of that 

Gamgoon 5pts e.w 20/1 pp

Edited March 23, 2016 by richard-westwood

[PeterX]

An excellent days racing at Lingfield. Here's my thoughts on some of the races. Good luck to anyone getting involved.

In the Fillies & Mares Cold As Ice heads the betting at 4/6 for William Haggas and it's hard to argue she doesn't have a favourites chance but is certainly short enough. Whether or not the draw will be a inconvenience to her or not I'm not entirely sure but she's drawn wide which generally isn't ideal. Volunteer Point is in there at 5/1 second favourite for Mick Channon and makes appeal. She beat Lamar (in receipt of 3lb) and My Call over this trip at Chelmsford and is also a course winner at Lingfield. The harder they go the better for her and I think she can win and I couldn't have her out the place so 5/1 each way will do me. 

In the AW Mile Mindurownbusiness is around 15/8 fav which looks very short to me and I wouldn't have him favourite. Mister Universe won very gamely last time out at Wolverhampton beating Sovereign Debt by a nose and is a likeable workmanlike horse. I actually backed Mister Universe that day but would have my doubts that Lingfield will suit him. But Sovereign Debt was having his comeback run off a little break and had a long campaign last season running with great credit picking up listed and G3 contests, was a 4 1/2 length winner of a mile listed race at the Curragh. So back to last time out at Wolves, he was conceding 5lbs to the winner for a nose defeat. They're off level weights here and he's 5lbs better off. Sovereign Debt was a very unlucky second in this last year when not given the best of rides by Nicholls, but Atzeni gets the ride today and I fully expect him to go one better in it this year. Obviously with the way Lingfield is and the horses running style, backing SD is not without its risks but with a good ride I will be surprised if he doesn't win and at around 11/4 - 3/1 that will be a maximum bet for me.

The Easter Classic revolves around Marco Botti's Invincible Spirit horse Grendisar and won the Winter Derby here last month. Realistically he only needs to run upto the form of last time out to take this and has most of the opposition covered. At 5/4 you can't really complain and he is certainly the one they have to beat. The slightly off putting thing when it comes to backing him at 5/4 is his running style as he'll be on the rail behind a wall of horses turning for home. But it's not an enormous field and providing he gets the splits and with good ride from Kirby who rides this unique track second to none it's hard not to see him winning. Remember the horse is a 5 times course and distance winner so he knows how to negotiate his way around Lingfield. He went down a narrow second in this race last year against Tryster who is favourite for Saturday's $6M Group1 Dubai Turf. 

Lancelot Du Lac is well found at the head of the betting in the AW sprint and deservedly so, I think he brings some top form to this race and seems to be coming into it in rude health. Indeed he broke the track record at Chelmsford over 5f last time out so we know he's a ball of speed and he's equally well suited to the 6f. But I was hoping for a bigger price about 5/1 - 6/1 when I was looking at the race before the draw. Maybe that was wishful thinking but he's 5/2 favourite and the draw has not been kind to him, he's in the stall 13 out of 14 and will have his work cut out from there. The one who makes more appeal is Kevin Ryan's horse Goken. He's lightly raced in this country and looks to be inproving. He won last time out last year over this course and distance in a listed race and gave his rivals weight all round a fair beating that day. He will have been aimed at this for some time by his trainer and should be spot on for it. He's got the plum draw in stall 1 which will suit him and with Graham Lee onboard I expect him to take the world of beating the 4/1 around looks like value to me and I will be getting heavily involved in that. 

Verdict:

1:40 Volunteer Point 5/1 e/w

2:10 Goken 4/1

3:15 Sovereign Debt 11/4 

3:45 Grendisar 5/4 

 

[richard-westwood]

Volunteer points race seems to have disappeared from bookies.

Oh..,its just reappeared ....strange Been missing for two hours 

Edited March 24, 2016 by richard-westwood

[richard-westwood]

It's good Fri got the day off work so I'll have a bash at the championships ....passed a load through comp and just backing top rated in doubles 

140 volunteer point  9/2

240 moon rise landing and Anglophone (joint top) 9/4 and 5/1

315 mindyrownbusiness 15/8

345 grendisar 11/10

445 haalick  15/8

14x 2pt doubles for a bit of fun 

 

[beaker1]

 1.40 Lingfield – The 32Red All-Weather Fillies’ and Mares’ Championships Conditions Stakes 

As with all races on Finals Day, this looks a lot more competitive than your usual conditions race but COLD AS ICE could well prove to be a class apart as the remainder fight it out for the minor honours. The four-year-old landed a pair of Grade 2s in her native South Africa and was only a short head away from a Grade 1 victory on her latest start there. She joined William Haggas with lofty expectations but looked like she needed the run on her British debut at Wolverhampton in November. She was a completely different proposition at Chelmsford next time out, making all for an eye-catching victory. The four-year-old was sent off favourite in the Listed Cleves Stakes at the beginning of February and shaped well over the inadequate six furlong trip, staying on well like a winner in waiting to grab third place. She needed that third qualifying run to make it here and although not helped by the draw (stuck widest of all out in stall 10), she will be difficult to pass if breaking quickly and making her way to the front.
Volunteer Point is closest to the selection on official ratings and is probably the biggest danger in the field. She was consistent without being spectacular on the turf last season but has really made a name for herself since switching to the artificial surface.  The main concern with her would be the trip as although she was successful in a Fast Track Qualifier over seven furlongs at Chelmsford, she left it until the last minute that day and is evidently more at home over slightly further.
I’m always one to look out for those in first-time headgear and that is even more prevalent on the all-weather. Three of the field are sporting blinkers for the first time here, one of which is particular interesting. Alfajer has been frustrating to follow having only won one of her twelve career starts but she is ultra-consistent and always gives her running. The application of blinkers may be just the ticket to get the best out of her.

Advice

COLD AS ICE – 3pts win @ 8/11 (Betvictor)

 
                                                                         2.10 Lingfield – The Unibet All-Weather Sprint Championships Conditions Stakes.

It is a travesty that this is only a conditions race but it can only be a matter of time before it achieves pattern status. This season’s renewal looks the strongest yet in the sprint division and should be a cracking contest on paper.

The default in most conditions events is to look for the highest rated horse in the field as, in theory, they should be well in on their lower rated rivals. However, we have four of the 14-strong field on a mark of 109 which makes our job even harder. Chookie Royale has thrived since the introduction of the All-Weather Championships and is a real specialist on artificial surfaces. He contested the Mile Championship at the inaugural Finals Day and was a close third in this race last year. In contrast to previous campaigns, he has done most of his racing over sprint trips in the lead up to this and six furlongs could well be his bag nowadays. That being said, he hasn’t proven to be dominant at the highest level and is likely to find one or two too good again.

Lightscameraction is a most interesting contender having landed the 3 Year Old Sprint Championship on last year’s card. He was campaigned in some fairly hot company on the back of that and it wasn’t until returning to the all-weather that he started showing some of his old gusto. He arrives in good shape having landed the Listed Hever Sprint Stakes last time out but all of his four wins have come over the minimum trip of five furlongs and six just seems to stretch him.

The remaining two top-rated are the top two in the betting and GOKEN is of most interest. The now four-year-old started off his career in France and was thought of highly enough to be pitched into the Abbaye as a juvenile. He ran some good races last campaign but wad found out in the Commonwealth Cup and King George Stakes over the summer. Following that, he joined Kevin Ryan and was put away until landing the Listed Golden Rose Stakes in November, booking his ticket here as that was a Fast Track Qualifier. He travelled strongly that day and eased through the gears for a comfortable win. Connections feel that he could be a leading light in the sprinting division and form a plum draw in stall 1, he is ideally placed to serve it up to the field with his customary front-running tactics.

Lancelot Du Lac is a worthy favourite on the back of his comfortable win of a Fast Track Qualifier at Chelmsford in January but he has a lot to do to be competitive from stall 13. Dean Ivory’s charge is probably the best of the field on the turf and finished a close third in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot last year. He contested the inaugural running of this race and was rather unlucky having suffered a troubled passage that thwarted any chance he had of troubling the principals. He is a likeable type that generally gives his running but it will be tough for him to join the front rank from his wide draw.

The Irish had never been renowned for their sprinters but with the likes of Sole Power, Slade Power and Gordon Lord Byron landing big pots in recent years, they need taking seriously. Russian Soul is the only challenger from across the Irish Sea and he warrants careful consideration. He was a narrow winner at Dundalk a fortnight ago, the race that qualified him to take up this engagement. However, he was found out when finishing last in the Hever Sprint Stakes and although the five furlongs there probably didn’t see him to best effect, this looks an even tougher contest.

Advice

GOKEN – 1pt win @ 4/1 (General)

 
                                                                            2.40 Lingfield – The 32Red All-Weather Marathon Championships Conditions Stakes.

A tricky race to try and assess put the percentage play is MOONRISE LANDING who Is the highest rated horse in the field and is at least 3lb well in on the rest of the field. The mare was a shock winner on her racecourse debut as a three-year-old, although connections were less surprised and she was immediately pitched in at the deep end with her very next run being in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. That may have come too soon for her and she was off the track for a year on the back of it. Last season didn’t get off to the greatest of starts for her and although she showed improvement to finish second at Newmarket in June, her form steadily slipped away. She didn’t find her feet until the autumn but since then she hasn’t looked back. She showed a gutsy attitude to land a 1m4f Newmarket handicap (on ground softer than ideal) which prompted Ralph Beckett to step her up in trip. That decision has paid off in spades as she romped home in a Kempton handicap over 2m in November before landing a hot looking Fast Track Qualifier at Wolverhampton the following month. This would be another step up but she is a stayer on a steep upward curve and is fancied to continue going in the right direction.

Anglophile has been a model of consistency, finishing in the first two in each of his last nine starts. He was well fancied in this last year and almost rewarded favourite backers when only coming up short by a neck. Connections resisted the urge to send him on the turf in the summer so he arrives here fresh having only had three runs since Finals Day last year. He does stay well but has had a penchant for finding one too good and may have to settle for minor honours once again.

Last year’s winning trainer Andrew Balding is again represented and the lightly-raced Ballynanty is an interesting contender. The grey colt didn’t break his duck until November last year and although he is winless since, he has run some decent races in defeat behind a couple of re-opposing rivals today. Having had only seven career starts, and only one over this trip, he has the most scope for improvement in the field and must be considered.

The final one to mention is Notarised who, although more exposed than most, is a bit of an unknown quantity on the all-weather. The Old Newton Cup winner has only ever graced the polytrack three times, the last of which was a commanding victory in a Fast Track Qualifier at Chelmsford which earned him his place in the field. He is more battle-hardened than many of his rivals here and if granted an easy lead, the race could fall in his lap. However, his lack of all-weather experience is a concern and he is probably best watched on this occasion.

 
Advice

MOONRISE LANDING – 1pt win @ 5/2 (BetVictor)

                                                                                  3.15 Lingfield – Ladbrokes All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes.

Last year’s renewal of this race could give us a strong guide as to the outcome of this year’s contest with several of the field re-opposing. Roger Varian’s Mindurownbusiness has been popular in the market and looks likely to go off favourite at this stage but connections will no doubt be hoping he gets a smoother trip than last year. He was squeezed for room at a crucial stage twelve months ago and despite running on in the closing stages, he could only finish ninth, for all he was beaten only three and a half lengths on the day. He has subsequently won three of his last four starts with his only defeat coming when stepped up to 1m2f here in December. He clearly has strong claims and is right up there in terms of official ratings but I think he is worth taking on at around the 2/1 mark.

Tracey Collin’s Captain Joy was only beaten half a length in last year’s race and in truth he just seemed to find one or two too good on the day. He only had a couple of runs on the turf last summer before getting colic but he made a winning return to action at Dundalk in February.  His trainer was adamant that he will come on for that run following such a lengthy absence but whether he will be able to go a couple of places better this time around is hard to say.

The one who stands out from the 2015 renewal is SOVEREIGN DEBT who just got stopped at the wrong time and with a clear run may well have landed the spoils. He also came from further back than most of his rivals and he looks a pretty unlucky loser on the day. He was mightily consistent throughout the summer on the grass, winning Group 3 and Listed contests in Ireland and he was a little unlucky to lose out in a photo at Wolverhampton a couple of weeks ago. That was his first run since December and he also had to concede 5lb to all of his rivals, something which he doesn’t have to do on Friday. I expect him to step forward from that run and at around the 11/4 mark, I prefer his claims over those of the favourite.

Perhaps the most intriguing runner in the race is Roger Charlton’s Captain Cat who took the inaugural running of this race two years ago, showing a smart turn of foot to mow down his rivals late on. It is fair to say that he has failed to repeat that effort consistently in the last two years but he managed to get his head in front for the first time since 2014 at Kempton last month. Until then he had been held up in his races but he seemed to enjoy the front-running tactics employed by Jamie Spencer and it will be interesting to see how George Baker rides him here. He is clearly not the most straight-forward but he does have plenty of ability on his best days and he could be the one to watch outside the front two in the market.

Advice

SOVEREIGN DEBT – 2pts win @ 11/4 (Bet365, William Hill, Ladbrokes)

 
                                                                           3.45 Lingfield – Coral Easter Classic All-Weather Middle Distance Championships Conditions Stakes.

Godolphin’s Tryster blitzed his rivals in this race twelve months ago and whilst there doesn’t look to be a performer of that quality in this year’s field, it still looks pretty strong for the level.

Marco Botti’s GRENDISAR tops the market and despite previously having been considered a little bit tricky, he has been in the form of his life this winter. His last two successes have come over course and distance including a most impressive victory in the Winter Derby last time. He has to be delivered at the last minute which makes him a hostage to fortune but he has a potent turn of foot, which has proved too much for his rivals on his recent starts. At around the 6/5 mark he is short enough but he beat several of these last time and in truth it is hard to see any of them reversing the form.

Maverick Wave was the rival who got closest to the favourite in the Winter Derby having set the pace but he didn’t have any response to the winner’s turn of foot. That was his first run for a little while so he should have improved physically but his form on the whole is hard to weigh up. I wouldn’t read too much into his defeat in handicap company last time where he was conceding plenty of weight all around and ran well in the circumstances to finish fourth. Perhaps James Doyle will be a little more forceful than Robert Tart was in the Winter Derby but it will still leave him as something of a sitting duck for the favourite to chase in the closing stages.

He could have competition for the lead from Mark Johnston’s Watersmeet who justified short odds when winning at Dundalk three weeks ago. He is unlikely to get things all his own way here and from stall 9 he may have to use up valuable energy early on to secure his position. He looked a bit one-paced when running over course and distance in February and whilst I find it hard to see him winning, he could play a crucial role in setting a strong pace for the market leader to attack late on.

One horse who could give the favourite a fright is Battalion however his tendency to be slowly away from the stalls has cost him his chance in the past. Most recently at Lingfield over course and distance he forfeited plenty of ground and despite finishing fast, he could only finish sixth, beaten four lengths by the winner. He got away with it the time before that but it would be something of a concern for me, especially in a race where the margins between winning and losing are so fine and I think he is best avoided.

Advice

GRENDISAR – 2pts win @ 6/5 (Bet365, William Hill)

  
                                                                          4.15 Lingfield – Unibet 3 Year Old Sprint All-Weather Championships Conditions Stakes.

David Evans’ Gracious John has been a revelation this winter having followed his Listed success in France in October with two successes at Lingfield and Kempton. He turned over a smart William Haggas prospect Ornate when winning over course and distance in January and his rider talked very highly of the colt after that run. He was turned over at short odds at Chelmsford last month but he behaved erratically during the race and was found to be lame afterwards so clearly this was not his running. Despite his clear discomfort he was still only beaten a length by two of today’s rivals and he looks likely to run a big race here. He has a plum draw in stall 2 which should enable him to get away quickly and secure a position and on official ratings he sets a lofty standard.

Kadrizzi was the horse who broke Gracious John’s winning sequence at Chelmsford in February and Dean Ivory’s gelding looks to be a sprinter on the up. It was interesting that Robert Winston suggested he may be more of a six furlongs horse following that success and despite staying on in the closing stages next time at Wolverhampton he couldn’t get to the winner. Perhaps the frenetic pace early on will set the race up for him here but whilst he looks a sprinter on the upgrade, I think there are probably a couple in here that will prove too good for him.

One of those could be David Barron’s WOLOWITZ who didn’t break his maiden until December but in two subsequent starts, he has shown himself to be a progressive sprinter. He won with more in hand than the neck winning distance suggested at Wolverhampton last time and having only had five runs to date, there should be more to come from the gelding. The one slight negative would be the draw having been allocated stall 8 but he has shown he is pretty versatile in his short career so far, so he could tuck in rather than racing to the head of affairs. The favourite looks likely to be hard to beat but something went wrong with him last time and with that in mind, I feel it is worth taking a chance on this improving sprinter.

Of those at bigger prices, Field Of Vision makes some each-way appeal at around the 14/1 mark but he has been put in his place by all three of the horses I have mentioned above this year. He has only won once in thirteen starts but it rarely outside of the first three and he could offer some value outside the front three in the betting. The cheekpieces didn’t seem to work last time and with those aides removed now, he could get closer to Wolowitz and Kadrizzi than he did at Wolverhampton last time.

 Advice

WOLOWITZ – 1pt win @ 3/1 (William Hill)

                                                               4.45 Lingfield– The 32Red All-Weather 3 Year Old Mile Championships Conditions Stakes.

The finale of Finals Day looks like a belter and many of these young horses will be well worth following throughout the season. Haalick currently heads the market having landed the Spring Cup on Winter Derby Day. That was a decent win but I would be inclined to take the result with a pinch of salt given the messy nature of the race with three quarters of the field being impeded by the hanging Race Day. Granted, he should well improve for the extra furlong on offer here, but I think he may just be found out in a cleaner run race.

Therefore, preference is for CAPE SPEED who has flourished on the all-weather this winter. He was well backed on his racecourse debut at Ayr back in June but could only finish fifth of six. Having been given a five month break, he returned at Chelmsford in December and showed a game attitude to lead from pillar-to-post and hold off all challengers. The form of that win was franked by the runner-up going in by nine lengths next time out and the now three-year-old duly won again next time out. By far his most impressive victory came at Kempton at the beginning of February when he completed the hat-trick. He was caught out by the strong early pace that day but recovered well to hit the front with over a furlong to run and asserted in fine style, looking as though he was going on at the finish. If he carries on his improvement here, he could be difficult to beat.

Although he has won 2 of his 6 starts, Special Season has been a frustrating horse to follow, being a beaten favourite on three of his other four starts (two at odds-on). He was a comfortable course and distance winner in December but when well fancied for a repeat the following month, he drifted horribly on the final bend and lost all chance. With that in mind, although he clearly has the ability to challenge, it would take a brave man to back him with any confidence.

Advice

CAPE SPEED – 1pt win @ 5/1 (General)

[BillyHills]

Done a small placepot, hoping to get either of the 2 big favs out of the frame.

[richard-westwood]

22 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

It's good Fri got the day off work so I'll have a bash at the championships ....passed a load through comp and just backing top rated in doubles 

140 volunteer point  9/2

240 moon rise landing and Anglophone (joint top) 9/4 and 5/1

315 mindyrownbusiness 15/8

345 grendisar 11/10

445 haalick  15/8

14x 2pt doubles for a bit of fun 

 

Well that's a good start !!...11 pts on everything else .....c'mon you beauty

[richard-westwood]

225 wolv 

Tough race but I fancy a bash .....lots of these look exposed but southern gailes. Looked a fair horse last year and although hasnt had a run if he has improved as expected he could be a decent horse..,,open race

Southern gailes 3 pts ew 6/1 bet365

[richard-westwood]

On 24 March 2016 at 15:17:47, richard-westwood said:

It's good Fri got the day off work so I'll have a bash at the championships ....passed a load through comp and just backing top rated in doubles 

140 volunteer point  9/2

240 moon rise landing and Anglophone (joint top) 9/4 and 5/1

315 mindyrownbusiness 15/8

345 grendisar 11/10

445 haalick  15/8

14x 2pt doubles for a bit of fun 

 

Been some bad luck stories but 3 out of 5 for three doubles 9/2 9/4 and  11/10 ...72 pts returned shows u even small doubles can mount up ..gotta be pleased with that on a difficult day 

Edited March 25, 2016 by richard-westwood