AFL Rd. 12.

[TazaD]

Adelaide +15.5 Over the last 5 games they have averaged 14.4 more inside 50's than their opp!! and they also have the league's best defense. I'm actually prepared to say that I think we've over-rated Geelong a bit. Wins over Essendon, Port, Carlton and the Kanga's are nothing too great, and the Bulldogs and St. Kilda both sustained injuries during the game. They've been beaten handily by the top 2 teams, and now two lesser teams in a row. Adelaide have been beaten by less by Melbourne and the Eagles...their other 2 losses were one horrible quarter v. Dogs, and a loss to Brisbane where they had over 20 more inside 50's! Geelong have beaten the Crows only once in the last 10 meetings by more than 11 points, and the Crows have won 3 of their last 5 @ Geelong. Think Adelaide will win, but it should be close either way. Sydney -14.5 How did we all get suckered in to thinking Freo are any good? Since Rd. 3 they have been poor, and even their last win they allowed Geelong 6 more shots. Their defense has been terrible over the last 5 games, allowing a shot every 1.70 entries into the 50, which is the worst in the league...and you can put that down to injuries. Hadrill, Hayden, McParlin, Walker and Matthew Carr all out, now Johnson, McManus and Dunn out....AND...Polak and Dodd have been dropped for drinking during the week!! The Sydney forward line is showing signs of life now with Hall, O"loughlan and Davis back in the line-up. I know Sydney haven't been winning games by big margins, but they have had a tough draw so far and with Freo struggling to name a side, they should win this one fairly comfortably! Sydney have won their last 5 meetings at the SCG by an av. of 33 points, inc. a 31 point win last year

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. Decided to go with the total for a smallish bet today. over 198 (2.35) (0.74 units) 178-197 (3.90) (0.26 units = $ back) Melbourne so far this season's game have been; 248, 180, 255, 154 (v. Syd), 272, 152 (v. Adel on a wet slippery night), 217, 202, 205, 196 & 160. They've topped 100 in all but 3 games. Collingwood's scoring has been way up in their last 3, and they are playing a much more attacking style of game. They should have no problems scoring on a pretty dodgy Melbourne D. Last 10 head to heads have been; 155 last year in the wet, then 210, 201, 191, 221, 167, 225, 216, 219, 190 @ 199.5. An hour to go...better go stock the fridge ;)