Tonyvdb Posted June 6, 2005 Share Posted June 6, 2005 I have been looking at the following : Martingale with draws. 1. This is my (so far theoretical) strategy : I do several bets at the same time, with 5 EURO to win each time. When I win the bet, I put 5 EURO in my virtual account. When I lose the bet, I add the stake to the second bet. When I lose the 2nd bet too, I add that stake to the 3rd one, ... 2. example : *Bet 1 : draw @ 3,20 : stake : 2,30 € (to win 5,06 EURO) - Draw : I win 5,06 EURO and put that money in my virtual account. - No draw : I add the stake of 2,30 € to bet 2, again to win 5 EURO *Bet 2 : draw @ 3,55 : stake : 2,90 € (to win 5,04 EURO) - Draw : I win 5,04 EURO and put that money in my virtual account. - No draw : I add the stake of 2,30€ + 2,90€ to bet 3, to win 5 EURO *Bet 3 : draw @ 3,35 : stake : 4,35 € (to win 5,02 EURO) - Draw : I win 5,02 EURO and put that money in my virtual account. - No draw : I add the stake of 2,30€ + 2,90€ + 4,35 € to bet 4 ... *Bet 4 : ... and so on ... 3. conclusion : - I have 3000 € I can afford for betting : as long as I have a draw in the first 12 bets, or even 15-16, it is still affordable. Problems would arise however as soon as I have a losing streak of 17 draws or more. 4. Now I would want to ask to you, who are involved with probability-formula's and so the important question is : How big is the chance you have 15 losers in a row, with - let's say - 3,50 fair odds ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted June 6, 2005 Share Posted June 6, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws I believe the odds of 15 wrong in a row are: (1/3.5)^15 = 0.0064 i.e 0.64% or about 150/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted June 6, 2005 Author Share Posted June 6, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws thanks, but what does the sign " ^ " mean? And how do calculate it? T Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted June 7, 2005 Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws If you do several bets at the same time (as mentioned in #1) how will you be able to adjust the stake according to your plan? AND - you are aware of that this is not a good idea except for entertainment? That 150/1 shot will hit you sooner or later and probably wipe out all your profits and more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted June 7, 2005 Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws thanks, but what does the sign " ^ " mean? And how do calculate it? T Tony, the "^" sign means "to the power of" i.e 10 squared is written as 10^2. But Lardonio is right, the staking plan on it's own will not work. It's pretty much accepted that Martingale is a dangerous game which will eventually lose you money. If your picks are bad, then you'll lose, simple as that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 7, 2005 Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws correct me if i'm wrong but i thought you need to multiple the probability ? odds of 3.5 mean you have a 28% chance of winning, ( 1/3.5 ) for the chance of 2 winners in a row you multiply this 0.28 * 0.28 = 0.0784 or 7% so 15 same results in a row is 0.28^15 = 0.00000000690206960592 resulting in 144884079 - 1 The drawback is that to make it work you need to start with a small proportion of your bank, otherwise you will never have sufficient funds to cover a losing streak when it does come along. Therefore it will take a lot of effort for little profit. Will 15 losers in a row happen ? Well maybe not in your lifetime, maybe it started yesterday, you will know only after it has struck and you are bancrupt. But for me this is not about maths or probability, it's about attitude. You are basing a betting strategy on whishfull thinking. " Surely 15 losers in a row will not happen " . Well maybe not maybe it will, thats the gamble you take. The problem is, it only has to happen once. Then there is the subject of risk. You will get losing streaks, maybe they won't wipe you out but they will happen. You then need to increase your stake to the point where you will have to bet about half your bank, 1500 euro, in order to win .... 5 euro's. And then a single match will determine if you win 5 euro or lose 3000. To me this is not a healthy attitude towards risk. And it will have a negative effect in other areas of your betting. ( taking too much risk ) So however you proceed, good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 7, 2005 Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws emersonthome, (1/3.5)^15 = 0.0064 , better get that calculater checked out :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hindi Posted June 7, 2005 Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws martin sux Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 7, 2005 Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws actually if the odds for the draw are 3.00 then after bet 14 you will have accumulated a loss of 1454 you then need to place a bet of 1459 on the outcome of a single match, remember, regardless of any previous losses/wins, odds of 3.00 mean a 33% win chance. so bet 15 means bancrupt, -2913, or win 5 euro. Do you ever want to find yourself in a situation like that ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tonyvdb Posted June 7, 2005 Author Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws you are all right, this is one to avoid ... I proofed it wrong, in a very simple wrong : being busy with betting and systems and so for a long time, I have a excelfile that files +/- 3300 games (average odds + results), about 900 of them were draws. I shuffled / randommed the 3300 games and wrote down the longest series without a draw : the result convinced me NOT to do this. series 1 : losing streak of 16 non-draws series 2 : losing streak of 20 non-draws series 3 : losing streak of even 22 non-draws ! Enough said ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted June 7, 2005 Share Posted June 7, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws emersonthome' date=' (1/3.5)^15 = 0.0064 , better get that calculater checked out :lol[/quote'] hmmm.... what I meant to say was (1-(1/3.5))^15 =0.0064! :ok think I'd better give them that GCSE maths certificate back :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws you are all right, this is one to avoid ... Very sensible decision! I must add though that I understand very well where you wanted to go with this. In working with betting plans and strategies there seems, for me at least, to be some sort of mysterious force that always makes me consider staking plans such as martingale even though I know very well that it's not sensible - actually it's betting suicide. I guess it's the hope of finding The Perfect System that makes it nearly impossible for me to totally rid my mind of Martingale variations when I'm thinking betting strategy. I never do them anymore, but even after many years of betting I still sometimes find myself thinking I've hit the Big One - if I bet on draw at halftime in French League 1 matches on Sundays in months with an R, and then double up for every loss -surely I must become fabolously wealthy! :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted June 8, 2005 Share Posted June 8, 2005 Re: Martingale with draws emersonthome, you put me on the wrong foot but you are absolutely right, i calculated the chance of 15 winners not losers :wall at 3.5 you have 72% chance of losing so its 0.72 ^ 15 = 0.0064, approximately 150 - 1 of hitting 15 losers in a row :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.