edtkh Posted June 10, 2005 Share Posted June 10, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Right, not the best of days with a 50pt lost... :o Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 76.15pts Profits/Losses : -23.85pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 10, 2005 Author Share Posted June 10, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Surpised it didn't take 2 tie breaks, but not really a surprising result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 10, 2005 Share Posted June 10, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Surpised it didn't take 2 tie breaks' date=' but not really a surprising result[/quote'] What has surprised me most was how Karlovic won his points on serve - if you can trouble a returner as good as Hewitt on this surface, you can just about trouble anyone(well, maybe bar Federer). Having said that, Karlovic still needs to get his consistency though as he did concede more break points than his class would suggest when he played Mertinak. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 10, 2005 Share Posted June 10, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Thought I'd post up my thoughts on Saturday's semi-finals for both the Gerry Weber and the Stella Artois. ;) 30pts Federer-Roddick-Karlovic (2.22 @ Ladbrokes) :D This has got to be the surest bet I've placed all week. I'm a bit surprised Federer is available at 1.11 to take out Tommy Haas as I'd expected nothing more than 1.10 really. Truth be told, I just don't buy the hype Federer has struggled this week simply because some matches are closer than the odds would suggest as Federer has shown he has a knack of taking things right down to the wire from time to time(Minar, Ljubicic twice, Ferrero have all pushed him close in 3 setters just as Soderling did). Having said that, the gulf in class is self-explanatory. Similarly, Roddick should see off Stepanek quite comfortably as none of the opponents Stepanek has played is in the league of Andy Roddick. Lastly, I think Karlovic has got to represent the value bet of the day. On any other surface, T Johansson will start this match as favourite, but on grass, I just can't see how he's going to live with Karlovic's serves(well, I'm assuming he'd carry the form he showed against Hewitt - and not what he showed against Mertinak - into the semis). Putting it bluntly, Johansson hasn't really earned his place in the semis as he'd no doubt benefitted from Murray's injury and beating an overrated and out-of-sorts Henman is hardly a test that's going to prepare him for someone who has just beaten Hewitt. All in all, Karlovic should win this quite comfortably as I feel he's got too much in his tank to stuff the 'machine'. Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 76.15pts Profits/Losses : -23.85pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 10, 2005 Author Share Posted June 10, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship TJ did beat Karlovic in straight sets last year on grass though edtkh. Roddick 2-0 is once again my bet, best priced 1.57. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master Joe Posted June 10, 2005 Share Posted June 10, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Yes, but Karlovic is playing solid tennis at the moment, he hasn't dropped a set so far in four matches in this tournament and beat the world number 2 today. He can take the measure of Johansson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 10, 2005 Author Share Posted June 10, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship To be fair, Hewitt was not playing the standard of a world number 2 in what was his first tournament back from injury For me any of the 4 set outcomes is possible in this match, so no bet for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship TJ did beat Karlovic in straight sets last year on grass though edtkh. Was actually in 3 sets, not straight sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Was actually in 3 sets' date=' not straight sets.[/quote'] One thing I tend not to read too much into for tennis is stats. Personally, I give consideration to the styles of play and strength of a respective player as much, if not more so, than what the stats would back up. While the stats are important to some extent, I feel where Karlovic will get the better of Johansson is on his serves - Johansson is a solid player with no real strength(and no real weakness either) besides being able to remain calm and keep plugging away the only way he knows how. Basically, what I'm trying to say here is I expect Karlovic to triumph even if there're no breaks of service and this match needs to be decided on 3 tiebreaks... ;) To be fair, while I won't play down the fact Hewitt perhaps is not at his peak level in terms of match fitness, I felt he'd gotten enough games under his belt and given the battling qualities he'd to shown to beat Malisse and Mirnyi, I expected much better from him. Having said that, I'd gladly back Karlovic to beat Hewitt again should they meet at Wimbledon. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Agreed that H2Hs are not overly important - but they can point you in the direction of what styles people are good/bad against on certain surfaces. I now actually think TJ will win today, doubt I'll have a bet though because I'd want better than evens, as it is close to a 50-50 match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Re; Karlovic v TJ It doesn't happen often, but I just read a good point on the betfair forum Hewitt serving so well might have been a blessing for Ivo yesterday. ie. he had more energy to concentrate on his service games. Ivo will be running a lot more during the swedes service games and we all know who is fitter. Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Agreed that H2Hs are not overly important - but they can point you in the direction of what styles people are good/bad against on certain surfaces. I now actually think TJ will win today' date=' doubt I'll have a bet though because I'd want better than evens, as it is close to a 50-50 match.[/quote'] I've watched enough of Thomas Johansson matches to know what style he has - and no, he doeesn't really have a different game for different surfaces. :lol I think the bigger issue here is which Karlovic will turn up - the one that beat Hewitt or the one that beat Mertinak... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship I've watched enough of Thomas Johansson matches to know what style he has - and no' date=' he doeesn't really have a different game for different surfaces. :lol [/quote'] The surface issue is not really the point, it's whether he has the style to beat Karlovic. When I mentioned surfaces I was talking generally and not specifically about this match. We'll know soon enough, but I believe that Karlovic will find this a lot tougher than the Hewitt game. As I said I think it's almost a 50-50 game, I'd give a slight edge to TJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship And let's face it - Karlovic never really turns up. He has a big serve, which is effective on grass. Other than that he can't play tennis. The only factor in whether he wins or not is the effectiveness of his opponent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smithy888 Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Bet for remaining semis: Safin, Roddick, Karlovic all up $3.30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship The surface issue is not really the point, it's whether he has the style to beat Karlovic. When I mentioned surfaces I was talking generally and not specifically about this match. We'll know soon enough, but I believe that Karlovic will find this a lot tougher than the Hewitt game. As I said I think it's almost a 50-50 game, I'd give a slight edge to TJ. I think that couldn't be further from the truth. It's no secret grass is not Johansson's favourite surface - and with a very good reason. Johansson is only ever going to play one way, regardless of the surface, and how effective he's on grass depends very much on his opponents - more so than any other surface - as big servers tend to give him more problems. Like you said, in the context of this match, Karlovic's big serve is a massive asset and while I wouldn't quite agree with the fact he can't play tennis - put it this way, I wouldn't fancy a Nadal or Henman to beat him on grass - quite clearly, he needs to turn up in the form he was when he sent Hewitt packing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship We'll see ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship We'll see ;) I'm sure we'll... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship I'm shocked - Karlovic played a backhand that wasn't sliced :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship I'm shocked - Karlovic played a backhand that wasn't sliced :eek For once, there's something more to his game than just his serves. :lol Having said that, Karlovic is certainly someone who must be taken seriously at Wimbledon as long as his draw doesn't throw up a potential matchup with Federer in the early stages... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship I get the feeling that if TJ takes this set he should take the match, starting to play a lot better on Karlovic's serve, as well as his own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship edtkh - do you have any career stats for tiebreaks won/lost for Karlovic? That's 5 out of 5 won this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship edtkh - do you have any career stats for tiebreaks won/lost for Karlovic? That's 5 out of 5 won this week Not updated to the minute, but fairly accurate enough to use as a guide - http://www.tenniscorner.net/index.php?corner=M&action=players&playerid=KAI001 . I don't think it's his W-L tiebreak record you ought to be looking at, but rather his tiebreak record on grass... :lol Nevertheless, one thing Karlovic did which no doubt helped his cause - not sure if he did that deliberately or he simply didn't have the ability to engage in rallies - was not to engage in long rallies with someone like Johansson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Yeah, that's what I meant. I'll have to look through his career record to find out then. I'll guess that he's got at least a 2:1 winning ratio Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted June 11, 2005 Author Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Lost count a bit, but it's about 23/24 wins vs. 11/12 lost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship On to the final for the Gerry Weber and Stella Artois then... 40pts Federer-Roddick (1.52 @ Ladbrokes) :D Looks obvious enough, but Federer will beat Safin at a canter. Federer still leads Safin 8-2 on h2h even though the Russian beat him in their last meeting at the Aussie Open. Having said that, tomorrow is another day and the circumstances couldn't be more different - Federer playing on his favourite surface and an injury-plagued Safin playing on his least favourite just sums it up, really. Safin has done well just to make the final and that should set his confidence - I hope - up nicely for Wimbledon regardless of what happens and more importantly, sort out the tendinitis in his knee that has been plaguing him since the French Open. Similarly, I can't see why Roddick wouldn't clinch his 3rd Queen's title after another impressive campaign(although he did have to dig deep against both Beck and Stepanek, but those were reputed grinders) and big as Karlovic's serves may be, he will meet his match in Roddick. The difference for me here has got to be Roddick's returns - if someone's going to break serves, it has got to be Roddick and Karlovic is useless with his returns against the big servers(and he hasn't faced one all week) - but I'd expect Roddick to outclass Karlovic even if it takes 3 tiebreaks. ;) Cheers & Good Luck! :ok Starting Bank : 100.00pts Current Bank : 112.75pts Profits/Losses : 12.75pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted June 11, 2005 Share Posted June 11, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship I would stay away from Roddick's match. Karlovic is in such a great form at the moment that I don't think Roddick's price is justified. I'd bet a lot on a tiebreak to happen in this match. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smithy888 Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Federer - Roddick No contest. Also fancy Jankovic, who has been a highly profitable to follow this tournament, taking a set off Sharapova or even upsetting her. She has taken a set off each of Davenport and Henin-Hardenne this year so worth consideration here. At the odds you can back both options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ridle Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Totally agree about Jankovic, I already lumped on her for Wimbledon glory @125/1. She had great results on hard court this year already. Federer - Roddick No contest. Also fancy Jankovic, who has been a highly profitable to follow this tournament, taking a set off Sharapova or even upsetting her. She has taken a set off each of Davenport and Henin-Hardenne this year so worth consideration here. At the odds you can back both options. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted June 12, 2005 Share Posted June 12, 2005 Re: Tennis : Gerry Webber Open/Stella Artois Championship Federer v Safin locked at 4-4 in the first set. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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